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Hmm, it's interesting that several of these "Blue Wall States" are also states that often have much more diversity in state politics - e.g., Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are simultaneously purple states and and part of the blue wall. They are considered purple or "contestable because they are usually relatively close (within 10 points) but they have consistently gone blue in POTUS races (Wisconsin since 1988; Michigan and Pennsylvania since 1992). Republicans have been successful in these states in gubernatorial or senatorial races but usually when they occur it's in off year elections when turnout is considerably lower.
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Originally Posted by wxjay
I think it is absolutely foolish to consider any state a Red/Blue Wall State in the ever evolving state of our national politics.
Actually, you can already color in about 38 states on the map for the 2016 election. Do you really think the Democrats have a shot in Idaho or Wyoming?
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Originally Posted by wxjay
Show me this same map every 30-40 maps in US politics.
???
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Originally Posted by wxjay
I also think it is a very foolish venture to consider that, for example, Latinos will always vote for Democrats. What, there aren't conservative politicians and policies in Central/Southern America? Silly.
No one is assuming that Latinos will ALWAYS vote Democratic, but there is a very clear established pattern of Latinos favoring Democrats in recent electoral history. At some point their voting patterns may change, but without policy changes by the GOP it's more than likely the established pattern will remain the same, while at the same time, larger numbers of Latinos vote with each passing election cycle.
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are simultaneously purple states and and part of the blue wall. They are considered purple or "contestable because they are usually relatively close (within 10 points) but they have consistently gone blue in POTUS races (Wisconsin since 1988; Michigan and Pennsylvania since 1992). Republicans have been successful in these states in gubernatorial or senatorial races but usually when they occur it's in off year elections when turnout is considerably lower.
This is what Pa is to the GOP: This time, Lucy will let him kick it (2012). No, she won't. Pa is where the GOP wastes money chasing the winning Powerball ticket that will never come again.
Three of the blue wall states are also listed as "purple" states since their D margins have generally been less than 10%; Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Of those three, I think Wisconsin may be the best bet.
Our conservative friends are likely to avoid this thread like the plague, on the theory that if you're don't talk about an unpleasant subject, it will just go away.
I'll bite as a conservative.....true, there are some whoppers in there....but, those union entrenched states are overtly po'd about his promises.....nothing rattles them more than the threat of downsizing and layoffs....now, that they see he has not delivered, he is closer than ever to losing. If the Republicans can just kill the super majority to within a few votes say, 53-47, you might see some movement.
Of course, having a Republican president could help thins a bit. It's up in the air and unlike my counterparts, you have made good points. The Dem's hold on to quite a few states of lethargy....California, despite it's brutal beating on benefits is still Democrat. NJ, NY and so on are NOT going to change. Not so long as the goodies keep rolling.
It's going to be tough this fall. The Republicans have a very, long uphill battle to take over the Senate. If they can do that, the president is not likely to get much done for the next two years.
Of course, having a Republican president could help thins a bit. It's up in the air and unlike my counterparts, you have made good points. The Dem's hold on to quite a few states of lethargy....California, despite it's brutal beating on benefits is still Democrat. NJ, NY and so on are NOT going to change. Not so long as the goodies keep rolling.
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What goodies? NY, NJ, CT, that corridor pays over $1.30 to the Feds for every dollar it gets back. The Southeast pays about 75 cents per $1 received.
The goodies from the government disproportinately roll to the red states.
Maybe the GOP should, just once, try a message that resonates with high income, high tax-paying states. Oh, I'm sorry, I'm being logical.
I am not so sure that the Dem advantage cannot be beaten. Had Romney never said his 47% remarks, he would have won the election. A moderate, charismatic Pub could breach the blue wall enough to win. I don't see such a horse in their stable atm though. Then again, the Pubs are not about moderation anymore.
Which offer the best opportunity with the right GOP message of ever becoming at least "toss up"?
We talk of them a lot, but I thought it would be nice to post them, see them, and discuss them.
I am not so sure that the Dem advantage cannot be beaten. Had Romney never said his 47% remarks, he would have won the election. A moderate, charismatic Pub could breach the blue wall enough to win. I don't see such a horse in their stable atm though. Then again, the Pubs are not about moderation anymore.
I don't think the 47% cost him the election. Might have had some movement in a some states as a result, and perhas a couple of states could have flipped asa result, but not enough to elect him.
There is literally nothing the Republicans can do to win another national election.
The problem with the GOP is their gerrymandering has shifted the party too far right. Democrats are more likely to compromise and have actually shifted right of center with their constant appeasement of the GOP. Therefore, all the moderate right-leaning folks are closer to the mainstream Democrats than their own Tea Party bretheren. This leaves mainstream Republicans without a base.
Virginia and Florida are now solidly blue... and North Carolina will likely drift blue in 2016 as it did in 2008, because the GOP goons have alienated the state with their extremist policy. This is also happening in Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Gerrymandering won them representation, but these moderate purpleish states do not resonate with the hard-right GOP platform!
I am not so sure that the Dem advantage cannot be beaten. Had Romney never said his 47% remarks, he would have won the election. A moderate, charismatic Pub could breach the blue wall enough to win. .
No, MR might have added a state or two, but the GOP has been losing ground in the Blue Wall every cycle. That wall makes 270 a walk in the park for the Dems.
Our conservative friends are likely to avoid this thread like the plague, on the theory that if you're don't talk about an unpleasant subject, it will just go away.
You were spot on. This is a painful truth for conservatives. But ignoring reality is never going to work in their behalf.
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