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Old 05-23-2014, 07:08 AM
 
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Just saw the turnout numbers for the GOP and the Dem Senate Primaries in Georgia? Was shocked to see the GOP turnout was almost two-to-one in the GOP primary compared to the Dem. Something like ~603K to ~328K.

Here are possible hypotheses as to why.

GOP is still way to strong in Jawja, so the Dems are far, far away from a poople state, much less a blue state.

Michelle Nunn was already crowned, so them dems decided to stay home. They will be out in force, come Nov. Watch out pubs, we're comin' to get ya.

GOP had a much more diverse slate of candidates, so its primary attracted a much wider swath of the electorate.

The low dem turnout just underscores what a massacre awaits dem dems in November, all over these great United States.

Your reason, hypotheses here.

 
Old 05-23-2014, 07:39 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,046 posts, read 15,508,400 times
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The Republican Primary in Georgia was competitive, the Democratic Primary wasn't. In some cases comparing Primary turnout can be used to predict turnout in a General. However, when you have one competitive race and a race that isn't competitive you can't make the same comparison.
 
Old 05-23-2014, 08:18 AM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
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in 2012, Claire McCaskill was the only Democrat in the primary, 290,000 people voted. On the Republican side, they had 3 major candidates 603,000 people voted.
 
Old 05-23-2014, 10:00 AM
 
8,089 posts, read 4,429,397 times
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I believe it is too early say that Georgia's primary results are a corrollary to McCaskill's primary and eventual general election win in 2012? It could have just as easily been a rotten republican candidate. It does seem to be more and more proven that while the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party is somewhat of a power at turnout, they are not successful in selecting winning candidates.

So, I'm in the we'll have a better feel for what this means in November. Anything else is, well hubris.
 
Old 05-23-2014, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
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How bad was the Republican civil war in Georgia? If both sides of it were equally committed, then of course, the turnout would be high.
But that could result in a much lower GOP turnout in November, if the defeated are so surly about losing that they decide to stay home rather than cave in and support the other guy who they detested so much earlier in the year.

Everyone will be all the wearier of the eternal campaign because of the run-off. There won't be much time between the run-off and the start of the negative ads that will flood the airways for the general election.

Who is going to be the most dispirited by all this? I don't think it will be the Democrats. They are most likely now involved in getting their ground game together than worrying about which worn-out Repub they'll face in November.
 
Old 05-24-2014, 06:45 AM
 
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The two who came out of the primary for the runoff, Kingston and Perdue are more centrist-type candidates. The ultra-conservatives did not make much of a showing, nor were they very well funded. It did not feel like a 'civil war' to this conservative.

Your point about the dems getting their ground game together is accurate. But neither Perdue, who is a first time candidate and had a successful business career prior to this and the Coastal District Rep, Kingston, is a multi-term Congressman, who has the backing of the U.S Chamber of Commerce, hardly are worn out. Think this will be a primarily media campaign. So, while sure to be tough, four months will be plenty of time to organize and go after Nunn who is not her father.

Success ful business executives - Perdue - and solid multi-term congressmen know how to balance the demands of a runoff and prepare for the general election. It is a Senatorial campaign, not an election that is coast-to-coast. Given the nature and backgrounds of the two, I expect there will be some boundaries about campaign tactics, for the sake of the party. We'll see come July and then November.

It is typical progressive smugness that encourages you to make ill-informed comments for across the country.
Quote:
Originally Posted by banjomike View Post
How bad was the Republican civil war in Georgia? If both sides of it were equally committed, then of course, the turnout would be high.
But that could result in a much lower GOP turnout in November, if the defeated are so surly about losing that they decide to stay home rather than cave in and support the other guy who they detested so much earlier in the year.

Everyone will be all the wearier of the eternal campaign because of the run-off. There won't be much time between the run-off and the start of the negative ads that will flood the airways for the general election.

Who is going to be the most dispirited by all this? I don't think it will be the Democrats. They are most likely now involved in getting their ground game together than worrying about which worn-out Repub they'll face in November.
 
Old 05-24-2014, 10:35 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
72,108 posts, read 83,768,361 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
The Republican Primary in Georgia was competitive, the Democratic Primary wasn't. In some cases comparing Primary turnout can be used to predict turnout in a General. However, when you have one competitive race and a race that isn't competitive you can't make the same comparison.
I think is almost always the case: the more competitive a race is (particularly primaries) the better the turn out. I don't think it tells us much about the upcoming November election.
 
Old 05-24-2014, 10:54 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,046 posts, read 15,508,400 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by earthlyfather View Post
The two who came out of the primary for the runoff, Kingston and Perdue are more centrist-type candidates. The ultra-conservatives did not make much of a showing, nor were they very well funded. It did not feel like a 'civil war' to this conservative.

Your point about the dems getting their ground game together is accurate. But neither Perdue, who is a first time candidate and had a successful business career prior to this and the Coastal District Rep, Kingston, is a multi-term Congressman, who has the backing of the U.S Chamber of Commerce, hardly are worn out. Think this will be a primarily media campaign. So, while sure to be tough, four months will be plenty of time to organize and go after Nunn who is not her father.

Success ful business executives - Perdue - and solid multi-term congressmen know how to balance the demands of a runoff and prepare for the general election. It is a Senatorial campaign, not an election that is coast-to-coast. Given the nature and backgrounds of the two, I expect there will be some boundaries about campaign tactics, for the sake of the party. We'll see come July and then November.

It is typical progressive smugness that encourages you to make ill-informed comments for across the country.
I wouldn't exactly consider Kingston or Perdue Centerist type candiates, hell Kingston has a lifetime rating of 95.62 from the ACU. The typically don't go with the over the top rhetoric of Broun and Gingrey, but both are quite conservative and ran to the right.

It will be interesting to see how the campaign plays out in the next few months. Kingston is more of a natrual fundraiser than Perdue, but Perdue has shown a willingness to spend millions of his own $$$
 
Old 05-24-2014, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
34,711 posts, read 33,734,897 times
Reputation: 51977
Turnout - Obama
 
Old 05-24-2014, 11:15 AM
 
8,089 posts, read 4,429,397 times
Reputation: 3074
Everything is relative. Centrist, comparatively speaking to Broun and Gingrey. But, I get your point. Perdue is harder to judge due to having not been in politics, though he is cousins with former Gov, Sonny Perdue.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
I wouldn't exactly consider Kingston or Perdue Centerist type candiates, hell Kingston has a lifetime rating of 95.62 from the ACU. The typically don't go with the over the top rhetoric of Broun and Gingrey, but both are quite conservative and ran to the right.

It will be interesting to see how the campaign plays out in the next few months. Kingston is more of a natrual fundraiser than Perdue, but Perdue has shown a willingness to spend millions of his own $$$
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