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Old 05-23-2014, 11:05 AM
 
Location: Type 0.7 Kardashev
10,577 posts, read 7,269,557 times
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Quote:
A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Georgia Voters finds Nunn leading Congressman Jack Kingston 47% to 41%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while nine percent (9%) are undecided.

In a matchup with businessman David Perdue, Nunn earns 45% support to her GOP rival’s 42%. Seven percent (7%) favor another candidate in this contest, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Election 2014: Georgia Senate - Rasmussen Reports™

Thoughts:
1) I still think Nunn is a substantial underdog, though if this polling trend continues it may warrant moving the race from likely Republican to lean Republican.
2) It's Rasmussen. Sure, Scott Rasmussen is long gone, and sure this poll appears to deviate from their usual pro-Republican bias. But, garbage in=garbage out. Until Rasmussen demonstrates they can reasonably poll, I consider their polls highly dubious.
3) Nunn will undoubtedly benefit from the fact that she is now the Democratic nominee (having avoided a runoff), while Kingston and Perdue will continue focusing their attacks on each other for another two months (the runoff is scheduled for July 22).
4) Georgia requires a 50% threshold for the leading vote-getter to win the election outright; otherwise, a runoff between the top to finalists is held. Nunn's chances would be a bit better if it were possible for her to win with a narrow sub-50% plurality.

On a side note, here's an odd thing about the Georgia runoff system: the 115th Congress will be sworn in on January 3, 2015, but the Georgia runoff for federal elections isn't scheduled until January 6, 2015 - three days later. That's a head-scratcher.
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Old 05-23-2014, 02:09 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,015 posts, read 15,472,483 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unsettomati View Post
Election 2014: Georgia Senate - Rasmussen Reports™

Thoughts:
1) I still think Nunn is a substantial underdog, though if this polling trend continues it may warrant moving the race from likely Republican to lean Republican.
2) It's Rasmussen. Sure, Scott Rasmussen is long gone, and sure this poll appears to deviate from their usual pro-Republican bias. But, garbage in=garbage out. Until Rasmussen demonstrates they can reasonably poll, I consider their polls highly dubious.
3) Nunn will undoubtedly benefit from the fact that she is now the Democratic nominee (having avoided a runoff), while Kingston and Perdue will continue focusing their attacks on each other for another two months (the runoff is scheduled for July 22).
4) Georgia requires a 50% threshold for the leading vote-getter to win the election outright; otherwise, a runoff between the top to finalists is held. Nunn's chances would be a bit better if it were possible for her to win with a narrow sub-50% plurality.

On a side note, here's an odd thing about the Georgia runoff system: the 115th Congress will be sworn in on January 3, 2015, but the Georgia runoff for federal elections isn't scheduled until January 6, 2015 - three days later. That's a head-scratcher.
It is interesting to note that this is actually the third poll in a row showing Nunn up on Kingston, though one was only by one, the other has her up 10 (which is an outlier). The 4th shows a tie. It is also the 2nd poll in a row to show her up on Perdue.

Of course it is 5 and a half months to Election Day and things can obviously change, but I think its quite clear that at least at this point this race is going to be one to really watch.
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Old 05-23-2014, 03:17 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
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The runoff is going to deplete both contender's campaign funds as they will fight each other.
I don't know much about the big money in Georgia, but it seems that if she keeps her funding level up, Nunn will possibly have the advertising edge in the general when it's needed the most.
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Old 05-23-2014, 05:38 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,015 posts, read 15,472,483 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by banjomike View Post
The runoff is going to deplete both contender's campaign funds as they will fight each other.
I don't know much about the big money in Georgia, but it seems that if she keeps her funding level up, Nunn will possibly have the advertising edge in the general when it's needed the most.


According to their filings with the FEC as of April 30th Nunn has raised $6.3 million, spent about $2.9 million and had just under $3.7 million cash on hand

Kingston had raised a little over $3.7 million, spent $4.3 million and had about $1.3 million cash on hand.

Perdue raised $4.6 million, spent a little under $3.9 million and had $467,000 cash on hand.



The numbers don't equal due to transfers from another committees for Nunn and Kingston. Perdue took out a loan for $1million and paid back $250,000 of it.

Perdue has the least amount of cash on hand, but he is quite wealthy and can self fund, out of the $4.6 million he raised $1.9 million was his own funds, and $1million was a loan he took out.
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Old 05-24-2014, 12:48 AM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
21,397 posts, read 14,352,256 times
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Ain't it crazy?
Would any one of us fork over a Million bucks for only a chance for a job that pays a fraction of that in salary and has a very shaky record of job security? The need for intangible power runs strong in some folks, and I feel sorry for them.
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Old 05-24-2014, 01:31 AM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,291 posts, read 11,525,672 times
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Correct me if im wrong, but didnt Rassmussen change their definition of "likely voter " ?
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Old 05-24-2014, 05:26 AM
 
Location: Stuck in NE GA right now
4,585 posts, read 10,838,809 times
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Living in GA I can only hope Michelle Nunn wins.
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Old 05-24-2014, 10:51 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,912 posts, read 83,551,069 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReturningWest View Post
Living in GA I can only hope Michelle Nunn wins.
can you give us a good reason you feel that way? I have to wonder if she is anything like her dad or does she share his views? He was one Democrat both hubby and I could have easily supported.
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Old 05-24-2014, 07:35 PM
 
Location: Stuck in NE GA right now
4,585 posts, read 10,838,809 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
can you give us a good reason you feel that way? I have to wonder if she is anything like her dad or does she share his views? He was one Democrat both hubby and I could have easily supported.
She is a moderate Democrat and if you want to read about her :About Michelle Nunn | Michelle Nunn, you might like her.

Besides, the GOP side of things here in GA are real wingnuts, not a moderate among them. Perdue is only winning because of name recognition, his cousin was a governor of GA and Kingston is running on repealing the ACA...like that hasn't already been tried. I see their adds on TV constantly and there were so many complaints about them a local TV channel did a segment and the stats and statements were found to be lies and half truths about the other candidates and what they can and can not do in DC.

I want someone who's willing to work across the aisle to get things done, I'm sick of the lets shut down the government 'tude.
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Old 05-25-2014, 12:58 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,912 posts, read 83,551,069 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReturningWest View Post
She is a moderate Democrat and if you want to read about her :About Michelle Nunn | Michelle Nunn, you might like her.

Besides, the GOP side of things here in GA are real wingnuts, not a moderate among them. Perdue is only winning because of name recognition, his cousin was a governor of GA and Kingston is running on repealing the ACA...like that hasn't already been tried. I see their adds on TV constantly and there were so many complaints about them a local TV channel did a segment and the stats and statements were found to be lies and half truths about the other candidates and what they can and can not do in DC.

I want someone who's willing to work across the aisle to get things done, I'm sick of the lets shut down the government 'tude.
thanks,

We will be watching the race closely. It does sound like someone that we could support if we lived in GA. As for shutting down the Government, that is another story and I don't think it has much to do with this election. I am never in favor of it, but this doesn't mean there are not times it needs to be done; both sides have been responsible for shut downs from time to time.
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