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I think this may be the best article on polling this year and on whether or not we are seeing true polls?
Udall is the strangest one as there is a significant hispanic population in Colorado which votes but doesn't get polled? Normally they break democratic, but are they being polled...
I'm not sure I understand the Title of this thread. Does Nate Silver have a 'personal' Bias that leans toward Liberals? Possibly, even Probably .... BUT, will he be willing to toss his credibility down the drain to satisfy the Leftists by telling them they will win elections that the polling shows they won't win? I doubt it.
FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver are the Darlings of the Left and you have to admire the Razzle Dazzle that Silver does with his 'projections'. He ducks, the dodges, he hedges and he "hopes". He has access to 'insider' Partisan Polling from the Dems. Does he also have insider knowledge to a possible "fix" on a District? Hard to tell.
He sure has a lot of interesting data and he doesn't seem like a very happy feller these days.
Location: SF Bay Area (recent MN transplant...go gophers)
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Democrats trusted him during the 2012 election, while Republicans "skewed" his stats. Now, I know some Democrats who are decrying 538's model, specifically their "state fundementals" that make up a significant portion of the formula. In my eyes, if you're pissing off people on both sides around you, and if you have a track record of making them eat crow, then you're doing something right.
And if you don't mind me revising this sentence for ya...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kibby
FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver are the Darlings of those who know what the hell they're talking about.
Democrats trusted him during the 2012 election, while Republicans "skewed" his stats. Now, I know some Democrats who are decrying 538's model, specifically their "state fundementals" that make up a significant portion of the formula. In my eyes, if you're pissing off people on both sides around you, and if you have a track record of making them eat crow, then you're doing something right.
And if you don't mind me revising this sentence for ya...
That always happens in politics. For me, I trust Silver's predictions due to his accuracy regardless if I agree with the results or not.
In this article he talks about polling bias, and talks about the what iff about the senate election's based upon if the republican's have a plus 4, to a dem plus 4 polling advantage....
As far as being a Darling of the Left, he pretty much predicted the doom and gloom of 2010 for the Dems then hit it out of the park in 2012 for whole election...
Seeing Silver has a great track record with polling, I would take his predictions over that of a number of other polling sources.
His track record since 2008 hasn't been any better than the RCP average of polls. The RCP average slightly beat him in 2008 and he slightly beat the RCP average in 2012. The RCP average beat his predictions in the 2012 GOP primaries.
I don't see anything special about equally performing the RCP simple average.
His track record since 2008 hasn't been any better than the RCP average of polls. The RCP average slightly beat him in 2008 and he slightly beat the RCP average in 2012. The RCP average beat his predictions in the 2012 GOP primaries.
I don't see anything special about equally performing the RCP simple average.
However, one guy puts in a lot of analysis and adjusts for poll bias etc...
The other just takes a simple average of recent polls -- and there is no real discernible difference in predicition outcomes - in fact the edge, if there must be one, would probably have to go to RCP.
That is why I don't see what the infatuation with Nate Silver's accuracy is. I can be just as accurate or slightly more accurate by merely using a simple average of recent polls.
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