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Old 11-03-2014, 06:20 PM
 
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The left vs right paradigm is getting outdated and tired. I think both parties need to upgrade their platforms to excite new and young voters. Democrats have already won the gay marriage and health care debate. Republicans lost the fiscal debate decades ago. It's time for them to get back to the drawing board. What would you include in them if you had the opportunity to pitch ideas?
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Old 11-03-2014, 06:31 PM
 
Location: NJ
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Whoever is brave enough to pass Comprehensive Immigration Reform, with a pathway (long-term) to citizenship, will have changed the landscape in their favor for many generations to come.

The status quo is going to keep status quo results; GOP House by a small margin, Senate flipping between being majority Dems 2/3rd of the time, 1/3rd of the time GOP, and POTUS virtually a Democratic lock.

Both parties fear being adventurous, but whomever is, via passing Immigration Reform, will be richly rewarded.
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Old 11-03-2014, 06:42 PM
 
6,932 posts, read 8,066,642 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
Whoever is brave enough to pass Comprehensive Immigration Reform, with a pathway (long-term) to citizenship, will have changed the landscape in their favor for many generations to come.

The status quo is going to keep status quo results; GOP House by a small margin, Senate flipping between being majority Dems 2/3rd of the time, 1/3rd of the time GOP, and POTUS virtually a Democratic lock.

Both parties fear being adventurous, but whomever is, via passing Immigration Reform, will be richly rewarded.
I don't think immigration reform would change the voting landscape. Besides, the congressional Republicans have shown to not have interest in passing any immigration legislation. The Dems won't regain a majority until about 3 more election cycles. To be honest, I don't think they will in about 10 years.
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Old 11-03-2014, 06:51 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,025,151 times
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The Dems will take the Senate in 2016; the map is dreadful for the GOP. Every 2016 state "up for grabs" has been solid Blue (POTUS) long-term by big margins. Its precisely the inverse of 2014.

I do think few pols have the guts to tackle this issue, though, and that is pathetic.

The House will stay GOP, at minimum, until the next census results.

POTUS: Forget about it, as long as the Blue Wall is ignored by the GOP, they will sweep in even the least electable Dems.
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Old 11-03-2014, 07:01 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 921,382 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knowledgeiskey View Post
The left vs right paradigm is getting outdated and tired. I think both parties need to upgrade their platforms to excite new and young voters. Democrats have already won the gay marriage and health care debate. Republicans lost the fiscal debate decades ago. It's time for them to get back to the drawing board. What would you include in them if you had the opportunity to pitch ideas?
Well, I don't totally agree with your premise that Republicans have lost these arguments. The only one that is even moving away from them is gay marriage (and there's no doubt that it is), though they certainly haven't lost that debate when polls show it's still more popular to oppose gay marriage than to approve of Obama's job performance. Especially when one considers that, time after time, polling has been shown to overstate support for gay marriage, often by a lot, compared to what people actually pull the lever for in the privacy of the voting booth. So I think they could revamp their platform by not mentioning gay marriage. They would lose a lot of supporters if they supported gay marriage. They just need to not mention the issue, and let the individual candidates decide.

Obamacare is law, and may or may not be going away (most likely not), but expect a GOP congress to pass an alternative. The law is still not popular and is a drag on Democrats, so I wouldn't put that one in the W column for the Dems. The GOP needs to keep its fiscal conservatism. When that is decoupled from social issues, it wins even in the most liberal states (as the polls suggest we will see tomorrow in Massachusetts).

I think the GOP also could do well to focus on issues that the Democrats monopolize, like education. Come up with serious policy proposals involving charter schools and market-based ideas without advocating for full school privatization.

Finally, immigration reform with a genuine commitment to border security is important. It will create lots of new Dem voters in the short run, but in the long run, those voters will start to become more conservative. This has happened with nearly every other immigrant group, including Latinos that are multiple generations into living here. This will likely not happen if Latinos continue to view the GOP as anti-immigrant, regardless of whether that perception is an accurate one.

The biggest thing the GOP needs to change is rhetoric, not necessarily platform. If it at least moderates its tone on social/cultural issues and adds some emphasis to issues like education/health care/"democrat issues" by offering center-right free market policy alternatives to these issues, they will do much better.
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Old 11-03-2014, 07:07 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 921,382 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
The Dems will take the Senate in 2016; the map is dreadful for the GOP. Every 2016 state "up for grabs" has been solid Blue (POTUS) long-term by big margins. Its precisely the inverse of 2014.

I do think few pols have the guts to tackle this issue, though, and that is pathetic.

The House will stay GOP, at minimum, until the next census results.

POTUS: Forget about it, as long as the Blue Wall is ignored by the GOP, they will sweep in even the least electable Dems.
Jonathan Freedland: Democrats can't win until their politics are born again | US news | The Guardian

Here's an article about how Democrats can pretty much never win again until they reconnect with cultural conservative values. From 2004. I also recall back in 2004, talk of a presidential "red wall" (the concept at least, they didn't use that particular expression) as well as the idea that demographics doomed the Dems (conservatives had more kids, red states were growing much faster, etc).

People were just as convinced then that the Dems were doomed forever, as they are about the GOP being doomed forever now. I wonder if, come 2024, we will look at these comments the same way we look at the above article. My guess is that that is more likely than not. People always spell the systemic demise of one party or the other, and they're always wrong, and the dying party always come back to obliterate the other party, only for the cycle to continue.

To be clear - I don't disagree with you over the short run, and if that's all you meant I apologize. But I don't think it is wise to try to draw conclusions about the long run given its unpredictable anture.
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Old 11-03-2014, 07:08 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,025,151 times
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tmsterp"The GOP needs to keep its fiscal conservatism. When that is decoupled from social issues, it wins even in the most liberal states (as the polls suggest we will see tomorrow in Massachusetts)."

You just mentioned where the GOP jumped the shark. Fiscal conservatism has always been sellable, but ONLY when it is linked with socially moderate positions. Social conservatism gets the base excited, and that base is not enough to win POTUS. 5 of 6 times now Dems took popular vote; 24 year total Dems took 61+% EC votes. The only way to change that is to win Blue Wall states -which will NOT happen unless a GOP moderate runs espousing moderate social beliefs..which means tossing out a pro life plank, and any position on gay marriage. That means not defending Hobby Lobby.

When Romney ran vs Ted Kennedy for Senate, he ran as the stronger proponent of reproductive rights. Pro life Mittens lost single women in 2012 67-31%! The country has changed greatly since the Dems were down, and it will never get less open-minded socially again, nor will it stop getting more diverse in POTUS races. Mittens did as well with white voters as Reagan 1984, but the changes in the demographics mean the party must adapt.
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Old 11-03-2014, 07:12 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 921,382 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
tmsterp"The GOP needs to keep its fiscal conservatism. When that is decoupled from social issues, it wins even in the most liberal states (as the polls suggest we will see tomorrow in Massachusetts)."

You just mentioned where the GOP jumped the shark. Fiscal conservatism has always been sellable, but ONLY when it is linked with socially moderate positions. Social conservatism gets the base excited, and that base is not enough to win POTUS. 5 of 6 times now Dems took popular vote; 24 year total Dems took 61+% EC votes. The only way to change that is to win Blue Wall states -which will NOT happen unless a GOP moderate runs espousing moderate social beliefs..which means tossing out a pro life plank, and any position on gay marriage. That means not defending Hobby Lobby.

When Romney ran vs Ted Kennedy for Senate, he ran as the stronger proponent of reproductive rights. Pro life Mittens lost single women in 2012 67-31%!
I mostly agree with you here, but the pro-life plank, as pro-life would have been defined a decade ago, is popular. The problem now is that pro-life has come to mean abortion should be illegal in all instances, no exceptions. An example of how the GOP took a winning (or at least not damaging) issue and made it a liability. Social conservatives need a home, so I think the GOP would be wise to, as you suggest, hold moderate stances or non-stances on cultural issues. A candidate in Oklahoma need not be the same as a candidate in New Hampshire, and that shouldn't make either one a "RINO." Becoming socially liberal is not viable as the GOP will lose its base that way. Becoming a big tent party will certainly demoralize and fail to excite the base, but it will pull in enough independents that it shouldn't matter.
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Old 11-03-2014, 07:17 PM
 
6,932 posts, read 8,066,642 times
Reputation: 3024
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
Jonathan Freedland: Democrats can't win until their politics are born again | US news | The Guardian

Here's an article about how Democrats can pretty much never win again until they reconnect with cultural conservative values. From 2004. I also recall back in 2004, talk of a presidential "red wall" (the concept at least, they didn't use that particular expression) as well as the idea that demographics doomed the Dems (conservatives had more kids, red states were growing much faster, etc).

People were just as convinced then that the Dems were doomed forever, as they are about the GOP being doomed forever now. I wonder if, come 2024, we will look at these comments the same way we look at the above article. My guess is that that is more likely than not. People always spell the systemic demise of one party or the other, and they're always wrong, and the dying party always come back to obliterate the other party, only for the cycle to continue.

To be clear - I don't disagree with you over the short run, and if that's all you meant I apologize. But I don't think it is wise to try to draw conclusions about the long run given its unpredictable anture.
That article lacked substance. The Red State high birthrate is from demographics that are socially liberal. The population growth in booming Red States are from minority birth rates and immigrants. This is without facts, but rather an assumption.
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Old 11-03-2014, 07:21 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,025,151 times
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tmsterp"A candidate in Oklahoma need not be the same as a candidate in New Hampshire, and that shouldn't make either one a "RINO."

Agreed, and one can always tell which party isn't together nationally by which one is using the term *INO the most.

The last decade, it has been the GOP using the stupid RINO term, while Dems seldom call anyone a DINO anymore.

The Dems, at this time, have a far bigger, more diverse tent than the GOP. The GOP stupidly failed to learn the lessons of W, who earned 44% of the Latino vote..by courting them, and listening to them..personally.

Personally, I'd like to see the next GOP nominee spend more time campaigning in the inner cities than the solid red states, and I want the nominee to do it..as, first and foremost, as a learning experience. I want them spending considerable time in homeless shelters,domestic abuse shelters, etc. Go where the nominees are normally least prone to go. Lead, stop following like sheep.
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