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Polls generally did underestimate Republican support. Hagan lost by 2% and she was projected to win by 1-2%. Ernst won by 9%, she was seen leading by 1-2% at best. McConnell and Pryor were to win by maybe 5%, and got nearly 20% blowouts. Governor's races in Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Maine, Maryland to name a few underestimated Republican margins.
Gallup is generally considered the most inaccurate pollster, considered so in 2012.
The majority do NOT support abortion. I've seen many polls where people are pro life. Gun control not either. Stem cell research and marijuana, maybe. Gay marriage, it's about 50/50 now but people are accepting it because it's inevitable.
Most Americans may not be pro abortion, but they're pro choice.
Remember. Pubic opinion does not reflect political results as most people are politically apathetic.
Don't believe polls necessarily. Remember a poll is only as good as the day it is taken and often it depends on who is doing the poll and how questions are presented. An example: are you pro choice, or pro life, knowing that if abortions were illegal there would be unsafe abortions being preformed or women carrying severely damaged children would still have to give birth? A huge number would say they are pro choice. But many of those would also say, abortion would be wrong for them. As for gun control, a lot of people are not thinking or are thinking more out of emotions. And you talk about apathetic, many people are, but those are the ones who, in many cases do not even understand the questions being asked or are not at all truly tuned into what is really happening in the world.
This is from 2011, but it still stands. Basically, the GOP will retain the House for the foreseeable future and lose Senate majorities every presidential race. Since turnout is higher in presidential races, liberal regions of the state sway senate seats blue. The House majority was just a result to gerrymandering.
The main thing wrong with that argument is that it fails to consider the fact that there are many more conservative-leaning states than there are liberal-leaning states, which will set the GOP up for better success long term, even in presidential years. Not too long ago, key rural, conservative states such as Montana, South Dakota, and North Dakota elected solely Democrats to the US Senate. Now, come January, Republicans will control both 4 of the 6 seats in those states; the junior seat in ND will probably stay in Dem hands until Heidi retires, the same for Montana's Tester. And when Republicans win Louisiana in December, they will lock up another seat that should have been theirs for a while based on the State's conservative lean, further strengthening their position in the Senate. Simply put, presidential year or not, Democrats aren't going to threaten current or soon-to-be Republican Senate seats in Louisiana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, etc., anytime soon. This is despite the relative recent success Dems have had in those States. As the country becomes more politically polarized, the GOP will continue to lock up seats in naturally conservative states, depriving Democrats of reasonable opportunities to form a Senate majority. At least from that perspective I'd rather be the Republicans than the Democrats.
Moving forward, the 3 most vulnerable GOP Senators in 2016 are Wisconsin's Johnson, Pennsylvania's Toomey, and Illinois' Kirk; most analysts say these are the best chances for pickups that Democrats will have in 2016. While Johnson may be in serious trouble, I'm not all too concerned about Toomey (he's been conservative enough to keep his base, while coming to the middle on issues like gun control to mute any serious potential Dem challenge). Likewise, Kirk should be fine given the weak Democratic bench in Illinois for 2016 (Michelle Obama, who would be Kirk's biggest threat, has already stated she's not running and Madigan can't win against Kirk).
I'd agree with your outlook if the GOP had just won a bare majority of 51 seats this past election cycle. But, when its all said and done, the GOP is likely to have 54 seats. So, even assuming a worst case scenario situation where the Dems took all three of the above seats, they would still have a 51 seat majority. And, note, this doesn't even get into the fact that Harry Reid will lose if popular GOP Governor Brian Sandoval (who was just re-elected with 70% of the vote) runs against him.
Democratic and Republican are parties, not ideologies.
California was indeed Republican, but it wasnt Conservative.
The South was indeed Democratic, but it wasnt Liberal or Progressive.
Eh, I disagree. The South was Democratic and progressive on economic issues (Southern Democrats mostly favored big government). Yes southern Democrats were technically more conservative on social issues (and being anti-basic civil rights doesn't make one a conservative, but rather a racist), but to make this point without explaining that most of the country was conservative on the key social issues is intellectually dishonest.
I do agree with you on California, though (although even California was more socially conservative then vs. today). It's like Kansas, which despite being one of the most Republican states and a state that is home to a large number of conservative voters, is not necessarily the most conservative state.
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