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Old 11-08-2014, 02:11 PM
 
4,212 posts, read 6,692,766 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucidkitty View Post
The reality is that 2 years is a eon in politics, and how you do in one election is not going to be representative of the next. The seats in play, who is running, voter enthusiasm will all play a part.
That is definitely true. McConnell is better liked in Kentucky than Reid is in Nevada. Despite all this hype about how McConnell was vulnerable he's never had a tough race. Reid was almost defeated in 1998 and had a close in 2010 which would have been a defeat if Angle didn't stink.
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Old 11-08-2014, 02:13 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GABESTA535 View Post
Where do you get the idea that Ron Johnson is well liked? He has the voting record of a Southern conservative not a Midwestern moderate. Only way he wins is if Wisconsin goes Republican in the presidential election which it hasn't for decades.
So does Scott Walker and look what happened. Don't count Ron Johnson out yet. I'd compare it to Begich or Pryor. Both might have survived in a decent year for Democrats. If 2016 is an anti Republican sweep surely Johnson is toast. If it ends up being an okay to good year, and he runs a good campaign like I expect him to, he might be okay.
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Old 11-08-2014, 02:21 PM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
66,250 posts, read 33,633,272 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
I started a thread on the other page about this. We could see several wave Senate Elections in a row based off how many seats are up


2016- 34 seats 24 Republicans- 10 Democrats

2018 33 Seats- 25 Democrats (23 + Sanders & King) 8 Republicans

2020 33 Seats up- 22 Republicans 11 Democrats


To add even more to that, Democrats typically have turnout advantages in Presidential elections, GOP tends to have the turnout advantages in Midterms.


they will all be held accountable by the party, in the primaries.

there will be an even more conservative GOP to choose.
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Old 11-08-2014, 02:22 PM
 
874 posts, read 439,916 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by disgruntled la native View Post
So does Scott Walker and look what happened. Don't count Ron Johnson out yet. I'd compare it to Begich or Pryor. Both might have survived in a decent year for Democrats. If 2016 is an anti Republican sweep surely Johnson is toast. If it ends up being an okay to good year, and he runs a good campaign like I expect him to, he might be okay.
Alaska and Arkansas are haven't gone Democratic in presidential elections in forever. Wisconsin always does. That's the difference.
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Old 11-08-2014, 02:39 PM
 
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Washington Post already has Johnson THE most vulnerable Senator in America. Why Republicans’ Senate majority could be very short-lived - The Washington Post
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Old 11-08-2014, 03:07 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GABESTA535 View Post
Alaska and Arkansas are haven't gone Democratic in presidential elections in forever. Wisconsin always does. That's the difference.
Yes, you're not getting my point. Begich and Pryor are Democrats that voted liberally (while pretending to be conservative) in Republican states. But since they were incumbents with a good campaign they might have survived in a better year for Democrats. Same deal with Johnson who is in a similar position to them but in the reverse scenario. That being said conservative Republicans who are unapologetic can win statewide in Wisconsin, like Scott Walker has 3 times in 4 years.
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Old 11-08-2014, 04:33 PM
 
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Walker is not running in Presidential years. And he (like Reid in 2010) drew sub-par opponents. People are much more likely to vote for the minority party in state races than National- look at the Governator in California, Maryland having two R Governors in the last ten years, Brown eeking it out in Kansas while Roberts made his race a route, Rhode Island dumping Chafee in 06 with 60% approval and then putting him in the Governors mansion 4 years later and the string of R Govvernors in Massachusetts over the last 25 years. States are much less strident with the Governors mansion than a Senate seat.

I think Johnson is simply not in line with his Wisconsin. Pryor was a case of the state becoming more conservative. In the 00s Pryor and Lincoln were able to cruise in Arkansas but the state actually became more conservative over time. Its what happens when politicians stick around to long in swing states. Also it should be noted Begich's 2008 election and Pryor's freshman win were both greatly aided by scandal plagued opponents. Kirk had a similar assist in 2008.

I think there will be a minimum of three R give backs in 2016- after that Dems have to work for it. And they will probably need to pick up one more seat than typical because while Ky voters may hate McConnell they are noting voting Dem for Senate. Nevada voters are perfectly happy to vote R.

We also seem to forget that 2008 was good to Dems not only because it was a Presidential year but because 02 was an R route. The biggest pickup of 2014 was Colorado- the rest was a case of low-hanging fruit except NC where Hagan ran a great campaign to keep it to 2 and Iowa where Braley ran a miserable campaign and Ernst earned her big win.
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Old 11-08-2014, 04:38 PM
 
8,070 posts, read 4,401,631 times
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Yes, true, but President Walker's election should help tremendously.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GABESTA535 View Post
Where do you get the idea that Ron Johnson is well liked? He has the voting record of a Southern conservative not a Midwestern moderate. Only way he wins is if Wisconsin goes Republican in the presidential election which it hasn't for decades.
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Old 11-08-2014, 10:52 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,978 posts, read 15,444,831 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by disgruntled la native View Post
Yes, you're not getting my point. Begich and Pryor are Democrats that voted liberally (while pretending to be conservative) in Republican states. But since they were incumbents with a good campaign they might have survived in a better year for Democrats. Same deal with Johnson who is in a similar position to them but in the reverse scenario. That being said conservative Republicans who are unapologetic can win statewide in Wisconsin, like Scott Walker has 3 times in 4 years.

Walker never won with a Presidential race electorate. Not taking anything away from his three wins in four years. He ran a strong campaign and had an excellent ground game. However, he never ran in a high turnout Presidential election. Different turnout, different electorate and much more diffcult for Johnson to win than the electorate he and Walker both had in 2010, or Walker had in his recall election and this year. Not saying he has no chance or anything like that, but the turnout and electorate is not comparable to his last election or anything Walker has faced.
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Old 11-08-2014, 11:17 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,978 posts, read 15,444,831 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by earthlyfather View Post
Yes, true, but President Walker's election should help tremendously.

Different electorate from a Presidential race to a Midterm, so I doubt it helps all that much. Keep in mind Walker won his recall five months prior to Election Day in 2012, however that didn't help Romney or Former Gov Tommy Thompson . Romney lost to Obama by 6.94%, ironically almost the exact inverse of Walker's victory five months earlier (Walker won by 6.80% in his recall). Former Gov. Thompson was running for an open Senate seat, lost to then Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin by 5.55%.

So five months after Walker won his recall, Wisconsin voters also voted to re-elect Obama and send a liberal lesbian from Madison to the Senate. The higher Presidential Turnout resulted in a different electorate than the ones that voted in the recall five months earlier, and a different electorate that showed up in 2010 and 2014.
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