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Old 11-23-2014, 07:45 AM
 
8,059 posts, read 4,396,382 times
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Who knows where 2016 is going. This is a potentially powerful Electoral College combination. Kasich could also replace Portman, with the same result. We're not talking relative merits here, just numbers.

Harold Ickes
Quote:
If Republicans were to win Florida and Ohio and Colorado, it's hard to total up 270 for Democrats, he said.
A Republican Ticket Hillary Clinton May Fear - Bloomberg Politics

Not intended as an endorsement by Earthlyfather. Just the possibilities, ma'am, just the possibilities.
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Old 11-23-2014, 08:15 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
29,287 posts, read 39,611,449 times
Reputation: 18707
Quote:
Originally Posted by earthlyfather View Post
Who knows where 2016 is going. This is a potentially powerful Electoral College combination. Kasich could also replace Portman, with the same result. We're not talking relative merits here, just numbers.

Harold Ickes


A Republican Ticket Hillary Clinton May Fear - Bloomberg Politics

Not intended as an endorsement by Earthlyfather. Just the possibilities, ma'am, just the possibilities.
Do you suppose that Jeb Bush would come out and declare that he will let Obama's EOs on immigration stand? I don't. Without that, the Hispanic vote is lost. Republicans would be wise to pass a comprehensive immigration bill (the senate one is a good start) before the election to take this issue away and begin mending fences with the growing Hispanic demographic. I don't think that is going to happen either.
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Old 11-23-2014, 08:23 AM
 
Location: Pluto's Home Town
9,995 posts, read 11,640,398 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Do you suppose that Jeb Bush would come out and declare that he will let Obama's EOs on immigration stand? I don't. Without that, the Hispanic vote is lost. Republicans would be wise to pass a comprehensive immigration bill (the senate one is a good start) before the election to take this issue away and begin mending fences with the growing Hispanic demographic. I don't think that is going to happen either.
In that sense, Obama forced the issue. Either, as you say, the GOP deals with this maturely, and shows the Hispanic they give a rip, or they act like it is the end of civilization, and lose their vote. It is highly unlikely they would have done so without him giving them a push. They still probably won't.
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Old 11-23-2014, 09:25 AM
 
Location: Riding the light...
1,635 posts, read 1,461,947 times
Reputation: 1159
Quote:
Originally Posted by earthlyfather View Post
Who knows where 2016 is going. This is a potentially powerful Electoral College combination. Kasich could also replace Portman, with the same result. We're not talking relative merits here, just numbers.

Harold Ickes


A Republican Ticket Hillary Clinton May Fear - Bloomberg Politics

Not intended as an endorsement by Earthlyfather. Just the possibilities, ma'am, just the possibilities.
This is where the 2014 'low voter' argument loses. Due to that 'low voter turnout', more states are now conservative controlled which to some effect results in conservative votes. Depending of course, on how those legislatures perform.
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Old 11-23-2014, 09:32 AM
 
Location: NE Ohio
30,194 posts, read 16,564,163 times
Reputation: 8847
Quote:
Originally Posted by earthlyfather View Post
Who knows where 2016 is going. This is a potentially powerful Electoral College combination. Kasich could also replace Portman, with the same result. We're not talking relative merits here, just numbers.

Harold Ickes


A Republican Ticket Hillary Clinton May Fear - Bloomberg Politics

Not intended as an endorsement by Earthlyfather. Just the possibilities, ma'am, just the possibilities.
I don't think we should let Democrats suggest who our candidates should be, and it's a bit early to speculate.
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Old 11-23-2014, 09:35 AM
 
3,201 posts, read 3,552,692 times
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um

since republicans "hate" hispanics and other evil stinky immigrants </sarcasm>

why would anyone expect for them to pass a "comprehensive" immigration bill (ie code for amnesty, again)

when the country mandated for our current great leader and his political party to make a *change* they had total power to pass this CIB during years 1-2 just like any other legislation ACA etc

iirc didnt they basically promise hispanics that this was at the top of the agenda.

hmm, now its coming up again when the curents are on the way out and they pass the buck to the racist immigrant hater republicons

didnt see this coming...

</sarcasm>
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Old 11-23-2014, 09:37 AM
 
Location: NE Ohio
30,194 posts, read 16,564,163 times
Reputation: 8847
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Do you suppose that Jeb Bush would come out and declare that he will let Obama's EOs on immigration stand? I don't. Without that, the Hispanic vote is lost. Republicans would be wise to pass a comprehensive immigration bill (the senate one is a good start) before the election to take this issue away and begin mending fences with the growing Hispanic demographic. I don't think that is going to happen either.
Don't be to sure. There are many Hispanics and others who came in "through the front door," are proud to be Americans, and are angry with Obama for this illegal (no pun intended) E.O. He is rewarding the lawless, disrespectors of our Constitution and criminals.
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Old 11-23-2014, 10:09 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
29,287 posts, read 39,611,449 times
Reputation: 18707
Quote:
Originally Posted by nononsenseguy View Post
Don't be to sure. There are many Hispanics and others who came in "through the front door," are proud to be Americans, and are angry with Obama for this illegal (no pun intended) E.O. He is rewarding the lawless, disrespectors of our Constitution and criminals.
I would not characterize them as such, but yes, there are many Latinos who will vote Republican if that is what you mean. The problem is that about 65-70% of them will not. That's 5 million or more votes and enough to give the Dems the White House once again.
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Old 11-23-2014, 10:23 AM
Status: "Boat races again on the Ohio" (set 25 days ago)
 
5,471 posts, read 3,204,109 times
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Didn't New Mexico elect a Republican hispanic women?Martinez?
Kasich-Martinez 2016!
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Old 11-23-2014, 10:27 AM
 
6,930 posts, read 2,471,258 times
Reputation: 3494
Quote:
Originally Posted by earthlyfather View Post
Who knows where 2016 is going. This is a potentially powerful Electoral College combination. Kasich could also replace Portman, with the same result. We're not talking relative merits here, just numbers.

Harold Ickes


A Republican Ticket Hillary Clinton May Fear - Bloomberg Politics

Not intended as an endorsement by Earthlyfather. Just the possibilities, ma'am, just the possibilities.
I have no clue what game Ickes was playing here, but if the Democrats simply hold the states they have carried for the past 24 years, they start with 242 EV. If the Pubs carry all of the Romney states, plus Florida, Colorado and Ohio, they have 262. Dems would need 28, R's would need 8. There would be 5 states with a total of 34 EV that would decide the election; Virginia (13 EV), Iowa (6 EV), Nevada (6 EV), New Mexico (5 EV) and New Hampshire ((4 EV). Demographics are clearly moving Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico in the direction of the D's and any state in New England is tough sledding for the GOP in a presidential year. It would probably come down to Iowa, unless the Republicans can finally break through in Pennsylvania. If I had to pick 2 states to focus on on election night 2016 it would be Colorado and Pennsylvania. If a Blue Wall state turns Red in 2016 it's most likely to be Pennsylvania. I think that the tipping order for the GOP to pull out a win in 2016 would be North Carolina (lock up the Romney states with a total of 206 EV), Florida (29 EV to get to 235), Ohio (18 EV to get to 253) and Colorado (9 EV to get to 262). After that the next best shot is probably Pennslyvania (20 EV for 282 and the win). What is unsaid in this article, is that the GOP has no paths to victory without carrying all of North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Colorado. Without all 4 states they're going to fall short, and they could easily fall 8 EV short while carrying all of them. The math gives the D's more options of getting to 270 and winning.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 11-23-2014 at 11:06 AM..
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