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Old 12-13-2014, 10:12 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,067,569 times
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2010 was a bigger GOP win than 2014, and as we saw, 2010 had no carryover affect in 2012.

POTUS races, unlike off year elections, feature a diverse electorate with the vast majority actually turning out to vote.
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Old 12-13-2014, 10:27 PM
 
3,378 posts, read 3,242,341 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
2010 was a bigger GOP win than 2014, and as we saw, 2010 had no carryover affect in 2012.

POTUS races, unlike off year elections, feature a diverse electorate with the vast majority actually turning out to vote.
2010 was NOT bigger than 2014. yes, POTUS races are different, but you can't deny the truth. Also, the majority of americans do not really follow politics. But, the majority of Americans are very sour on Obama. So, if a democrat wants to win in 2016 they are going to have to run far away from Obama. How is that an advantage for dems?
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Old 12-13-2014, 10:33 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,067,569 times
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2010 was far bigger than 2014, a massive movement (many dozen!) in US House seats, as well as many governorships going Red.
2016 will involve little about running from Obama. It will simply be running the Blue Wall, as usual, and simply needing just 1 swing state of about 8.

Unless the GOP figures out how to replicate W's 44% Latino share, they are running as they have later into a mathematical disaster. It is something that pertains solely to the only race decided by electoral college policies.
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Old 12-14-2014, 06:18 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
34,687 posts, read 33,690,741 times
Reputation: 51892
Quote:
Originally Posted by markg91359 View Post
First, a disclaimer. For anyone who doesn't already know it, I am a democrat. Most people here would probably say I'm a liberal too. Even so, I consider myself a moderate to conservative democrat who is troubled by the most left wing people in the party. I think the Election of 2016 greatly favors the democrats. Yet, I've seen elections thrown away by sheer stupidity. Here's my list of all the ways we could throw away the election:

1. Allow a huge primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren that bitterly divides some in the party.

2. Nominate Warren to be President, despite the fact that the party has always lost when it nominated a "Massachusetts Liberal" (Dukakis, Kerry) as its Presidential candidate.

3. Have no other agenda other than opposing anything that the GOP wants.

4. Keep up opposition to projects like the Keystone Pipeline which would, at the very least, bring many high-paying, short-term construction jobs to this country and, over the long-haul probably help to keep oil prices down.

5. Act like the only issues that matter in this country are "women's rights" issues.

6. Repeatedly demonize all business interests in this country and act like they are on the right-hand of Satan.

7. Fail to take threats in the Middle East like ISIS seriously.

8. Continue to blame George W. Bush for every problem in the country, despite the fact he's been out of office for six years now.

9. Pretend that Jeb Bush is not a serious candidate for President and do little to prepare for a race against him.

10. Take minority votes for granted when there is a rising tide of disatisfaction with both parties in the Hispanic and African American communities.

Winning in 2016, requires us to acknowledge and deal with these problems instead of putting our heads in the sand.
What does your candidate do, run with or away from Obama and his policies?
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Old 12-14-2014, 06:37 AM
 
8,085 posts, read 4,420,233 times
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I believe the turn out Mr Obama's candidacy generated in 2008 and again in 2012 is an anomaly. The turnout was based upon a now mostly undelivered vision. The 'belief' factor will be difficult to conjure a third time. Because, the 'disappointments' in lack of delivering on the Obama visions will make another candidacy based on that kind of image difficult to impossible.

It is hard to imagine another candidate, from either party engendering that kind of support and fervor again.
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Old 12-14-2014, 07:07 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
34,687 posts, read 33,690,741 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by banjomike View Post

the Democratic party does not demonize American business. Neither do Democratic voters.
You're kidding right?

1. Onerous and abundant regulations.

2. Obamacare.

3. "You didn't build that."

4. Shutting down oil drilling in the gulf when President Obama inserted a moratorium recommendation into a report by a group of scientists who said no such thing/made no such recommendation after the Gulf oil spill. When Congress held hearings on it and a member of his own administration testified, they said the moratorium was done without doing an economic impact study. People on the rigs weren't the only ones who lost work or business when he pulled that little stunt to kill Louisiana's economy and then offered money to Brazil (Petrobras) to do the exact same type of drilling off Brazil's coast.

5. Democrat led demonstrations against fast food restaurants.

6. The coal industry

7. The 2009 War against the Chamber of Commerce instigated by President Obama, his Energy secretary and one of his other most senior advisors criticizing the chamber publicly. DNC called them "shills for big business." "It's no great mystery what Barack Obama was doing when he accused the U.S. Chamber of Commerce of directing funds collected from overseas to a massive advertising campaign designed to shape the fall congressional elections. He wanted to remind voters that a powerful arm of corporate America is determined to derail some of the biggest elements of his domestic agenda. But he was also desperate to find some issue even a contrived one to inspire his cranky liberal base and avert a wipeout that could wreck the remainder of his term."

Risky Campaign-Ad Fight: Obama vs. Chamber of Commerce - TIME

"Harry Alford, president and CEO of the National Black Chamber of Commerce, blasted President Obama's anti-business administration in an explosive interview. Alford, a 2008 Obama supporter, labeled the administration 'Marxist' and 'fanatical.' 'They might as well put on the brown shirts and swastikas," he said."

Black Chamber of Commerce President Blasts "Marxist," "Brownshirt" Obama | RealClearPolitics

8. Wal-Mart

9. NLRB goons trying to manage Boeing's expansion operation into South Carolina because the union thugs in Washington state have Dems in their pocket.

10. Killed business in Las Vegas by telling people not to hold conventions there.

I think I could even come up with more if I spent some time thinking about it.
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Old 12-14-2014, 07:26 AM
 
8,085 posts, read 4,420,233 times
Reputation: 3072
Even-handed viewpoint. From that though, I see more as an independent with left leanings.
Quote:
Originally Posted by markg91359 View Post
First, a disclaimer. For anyone who doesn't already know it, I am a democrat. Most people here would probably say I'm a liberal too. Even so, I consider myself a moderate to conservative democrat who is troubled by the most left wing people in the party. I think the Election of 2016 greatly favors the democrats. Yet, I've seen elections thrown away by sheer stupidity. Here's my list of all the ways we could throw away the election:

1. Allow a huge primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren that bitterly divides some in the party.

2. Nominate Warren to be President, despite the fact that the party has always lost when it nominated a "Massachusetts Liberal" (Dukakis, Kerry) as its Presidential candidate.

3. Have no other agenda other than opposing anything that the GOP wants.

4. Keep up opposition to projects like the Keystone Pipeline which would, at the very least, bring many high-paying, short-term construction jobs to this country and, over the long-haul probably help to keep oil prices down.

5. Act like the only issues that matter in this country are "women's rights" issues.

6. Repeatedly demonize all business interests in this country and act like they are on the right-hand of Satan.

7. Fail to take threats in the Middle East like ISIS seriously.

8. Continue to blame George W. Bush for every problem in the country, despite the fact he's been out of office for six years now.

9. Pretend that Jeb Bush is not a serious candidate for President and do little to prepare for a race against him.

10. Take minority votes for granted when there is a rising tide of disatisfaction with both parties in the Hispanic and African American communities.

Winning in 2016, requires us to acknowledge and deal with these problems instead of putting our heads in the sand.
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Old 12-14-2014, 08:07 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
29,351 posts, read 39,760,611 times
Reputation: 18791
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
2010 was far bigger than 2014, a massive movement (many dozen!) in US House seats, as well as many governorships going Red.
2016 will involve little about running from Obama. It will simply be running the Blue Wall, as usual, and simply needing just 1 swing state of about 8.

Unless the GOP figures out how to replicate W's 44% Latino share, they are running as they have later into a mathematical disaster. It is something that pertains solely to the only race decided by electoral college policies.
Jeb Bush can win if he can get nominated. Hispanics will trust him to work toward immigration reform and, let's be frank, a Republican has a much better chance of getting that done than a Democrat given the House makeup. The trick is getting nominated. It looks like the establishment Republicans are clearly winning the ideological war in the party, but they opened a can of worms by pandering to the extreme for so long. It's a hard road back, but I would not rule them out. The country is still more about policy moderation than it is about party affiliation when it comes to the general election.
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Old 12-14-2014, 08:15 AM
 
Location: Londonderry, NH
41,492 posts, read 51,379,395 times
Reputation: 24613
I figure both parties will work at loosing but the Republican ideological struggle will give them an edge.

I would prefer a Democratic nominee that has not already caved to the big business and financial interests that own the Republicans. We need a candidate, not a Clinton, that will represent all of us. I do not know who that might be at this time.
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Old 12-14-2014, 08:23 AM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,067,569 times
Reputation: 7282
If Jeb has the guts to actually campaign even during the primaries as favoring Immigration Reform, which would mean spending the primary season running a moderate campaign, I agree Ponderosa, he could have at least a tough battle chance. If he panders ala Mittens to the far right (Mittens should have defended Perry getting booed over school programs for kids of illegals), then Jeb, like McCain and Mittens, will get thrashed November, 2016.

Long-term, in order to raise their November POTUS shot, I strongly feel the GOP should return to party leaders picking a ticket, or else, go to super primaries from the get go, with large Blue Wall states and swing states in the opening rounds, to reduce the disproportionate "voice" given "Middle of nowhere, small EC states..that will stay red no matter what anyway".
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