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Old 01-09-2015, 09:57 PM
 
491 posts, read 243,056 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
LOL, no not wrong.

Pa., Co & NM (due to demographics), plus NH & Nevada are hardly swing states.they are easy blue states.

Va is also blue now, NOVA did it, and NOVA is growing while the rest of Va isn't. Wisconsin is the GOP's fools gold, always look doable early, ends up a rather easy blue win.

Every one of the above will have a higher % of non-white male voters than 2012. It is getting harder, not easier, for the GOP.

You are sounding like Rove around September 2012, who used old demographic models to predict a rosy GOP POTUS path. Is he still wondering how Ohio 2012 will go? (LOL)

Time to face reality, it's bleak for GOP POTUS candidates. I agree Jeb has the best shot, but it is a very slim shot at that. He'll need to outdo 43 with Latino voters.
While WI is part of your beloved blue wall, it is the least secure state in it. Bush twice lost the state by less than 0.5%, so that is hardly an "easy win" for the Democrats. And you can't claim that "demographics" are an issue, because the Hispanic population in that state is rather immaterial. (And the black population in that state is not growing by much, either.)

VA is very much purple, given that Obama's margin of victory both times in that state most closely mirrored his national popular vote victory. And while I know you will immediately discount this, Democrats should be concerned that a far-right gubernatorial candidate narrowly lost in 2013, and especially concerned that a poorly funded GOP Senate candidate came within striking distance of defeating a supposedly beloved politician in 2014.

I think that it is unlikely that the GOP can win CO, NH, NM, NV, & PA in 2016, but I have already explained how the GOP can still win the presidential election while losing all five states. And the Republicans don't have to outdo 43 with Latino voters in order to win FL, given that Romney almost won the state.

You also seem to contradict yourself when you say that the GOP needs to take a moderate position on immigration (which Bush has taken) in order to win the presidency, yet still insist that Bush will have such a hard time winning because of demographics.
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Old 01-09-2015, 10:07 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,058,556 times
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Va has been trending the same way for more than a decade. It reached critical mass the last 8 years. NOVA's growth isn't finished. As for off year Va, that is immaterial, as 20% of all voters show only in POTUS races. This was a POTUS thread, right, Mr. Rove?

Moderation on immigration gives Bush a slim shot; no moderation = NO shot at all. No getting above that 27% then.
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Old 01-09-2015, 10:31 PM
 
491 posts, read 243,056 times
Reputation: 219
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
Va has been trending the same way for more than a decade. It reached critical mass the last 8 years. NOVA's growth isn't finished. As for off year Va, that is immaterial, as 20% of all voters show only in POTUS races. This was a POTUS thread, right, Mr. Rove?

Moderation on immigration gives Bush a slim shot; no moderation = NO shot at all. No getting above that 27% then.
In addition to taking a cheap shot at me, you also got your facts wrong, given that Obama won VA by 6.30% in 2008, but by only 3.87% in 2012. By anybody's definition, that means that VA trended Republican from the 2008 to the 2012 presidential election. (If the state had been trending the same way for more than a decade, as you stated, then GOP performance would have gotten continouosly worse from 2004 to 2008 to 2012.)
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Old 01-10-2015, 03:54 AM
 
3,378 posts, read 3,240,921 times
Reputation: 709
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dole-McCain Republican View Post
While WI is part of your beloved blue wall, it is the least secure state in it. Bush twice lost the state by less than 0.5%, so that is hardly an "easy win" for the Democrats. And you can't claim that "demographics" are an issue, because the Hispanic population in that state is rather immaterial. (And the black population in that state is not growing by much, either.)

VA is very much purple, given that Obama's margin of victory both times in that state most closely mirrored his national popular vote victory. And while I know you will immediately discount this, Democrats should be concerned that a far-right gubernatorial candidate narrowly lost in 2013, and especially concerned that a poorly funded GOP Senate candidate came within striking distance of defeating a supposedly beloved politician in 2014.

I think that it is unlikely that the GOP can win CO, NH, NM, NV, & PA in 2016, but I have already explained how the GOP can still win the presidential election while losing all five states. And the Republicans don't have to outdo 43 with Latino voters in order to win FL, given that Romney almost won the state.

You also seem to contradict yourself when you say that the GOP needs to take a moderate position on immigration (which Bush has taken) in order to win the presidency, yet still insist that Bush will have such a hard time winning because of demographics.
You nailed it. I don't see how people think VA is a lock for dems. In both of the recent elections (that you pointed out) the GOP candidate was outspent big-time. (D) senator Mark Warner is considered a "moderate" democrat, and he barely won vs an underfunded GOP candidate. Right now, liberals are still celebrating the 2012 presidential election and assuming that that is the only gameplan that they need. They all dismiss the 2014 mid-terms and anything else that clearly shows the new reality of America in 2015. They tried to get rid of Scott Walker. They tried to turn Texas blue, and they tried to win in Florida. Look at the Md governors race/results? Look at NC, Ark, Iowa. Up and down the dems are facing a much more hostile crowd than Obama enjoyed in 2008. And, he won in 2012 by name recognition and because people want to give a second chance. Sorry dems, NOT a 3rd chance.
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Old 01-10-2015, 04:52 AM
 
2,687 posts, read 1,844,165 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dole-McCain Republican View Post
You are totally wrong when you say that the GOP has to run the table in the swing states in order to win. Actually, all that he has to do is carry the Romney states (which obviously included the swing state of NC), plus FL, OH, IA, and either WI or VA. (With this scenario, the Democrat still wins the swing states of CO, NH, NM, NV, & PA.) If the Republican wins VA but loses WI, he has a total of 272 electoral votes. If the Republican wins WI but loses VA, he has 269, which still results in a GOP victory, because the GOP will almost certainly retain control of the House after the 2016 election.
In 2016, you won't win any of those states, including North Carolina.
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Old 01-10-2015, 08:10 AM
 
7,053 posts, read 2,508,676 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Votre_Chef View Post
In 2016, you won't win any of those states, including North Carolina.
On Election Night 2016, North Carolina will be an early signal, sort of a Republican "canary in a coal mine". It's the most Republican of the contestable states, and it's the first one to close its polls. If you are rooting for Team Pub, you want an early call of the race because your margin there is likely to be greater than in other states you need to win. In 2000, the networks called the state for Bush at 7:58. In 2004, it was called at 8:22. When Romney won it by 2 points in 2012, it was called after 10 and it was already apparent that he had lost. The last thing you will want to hear is "too close to call" for the longer it goes on without being called, the less likely that an R will win.

The states I'll be watching the closest will be Colorado and Pennsylvania, because those are the states likely to be on the cusp of the tipping point. Assuming the GOP wins, NC, FL and OH, they would have 253 EV. The next state that the R's would historically depend on is VA, but I think the rate of change in NOVA has pushed down that probability. Colorado is probably more winnable for them now than VA. If they lose VA, but win CO, the GOP would have 262 EV. Pennsylvania is statistically the blue wall state with the highest probability to flip and if you won that, you actually wouldn't need Colorado (253 + 20=273). If you lose Virginia and Penwnsylvania but win Colorado, you're at 262 and can still win by taking WI (10 EV) or a combination of IA (6) and NH (4). Nevada and New Mexico look to be off the table, to me at least. With Virginia and Colorado getting progressively dicier for the Pubs, it's becoming more of an imperative to flip a state or two of those 5 states in the East and Midwest that have been part of the Blue Wall or have voted that way at least 5 of the last times; Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. PA, IA and WI are the most realistic targets.
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Old 01-10-2015, 08:55 AM
 
7,053 posts, read 2,508,676 times
Reputation: 3564
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dole-McCain Republican View Post
In addition to taking a cheap shot at me, you also got your facts wrong, given that Obama won VA by 6.30% in 2008, but by only 3.87% in 2012. By anybody's definition, that means that VA trended Republican from the 2008 to the 2012 presidential election. (If the state had been trending the same way for more than a decade, as you stated, then GOP performance would have gotten continouosly worse from 2004 to 2008 to 2012.)
Actually, compared to the National Results, Virginia trended to the Dems in 2012. In 2008, BO won nationally by 7.2% and by only 6.3 in VA. In 2012 the vote in VA mirrored the national vote.
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Old 01-10-2015, 09:53 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,020 posts, read 15,474,890 times
Reputation: 3956
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dole-McCain Republican View Post
In addition to taking a cheap shot at me, you also got your facts wrong, given that Obama won VA by 6.30% in 2008, but by only 3.87% in 2012. By anybody's definition, that means that VA trended Republican from the 2008 to the 2012 presidential election. (If the state had been trending the same way for more than a decade, as you stated, then GOP performance would have gotten continouosly worse from 2004 to 2008 to 2012.)
If you look at trending, you compare itno the national average. The national marin narrowed, between 2008 an 2012, the margin narrowed more in the nation than in VA. If you look at VA compared to the national ma

1996 GOP +10.45
2000 GOP +7.52
2004 GOP +5.74
2008 GOP +0.97
2012 Dem + 0.02


The Dems have won thelast two Presidential elections in the state, the last four Senate races, three of the ast four races for Governor, and hold all statewide offices. It isn't a safe Dem state, but the trend can't be disputed.
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Old 01-10-2015, 10:51 AM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,058,556 times
Reputation: 7282
Good posts, Smash255 and Bureaucat.

If anyone wants the GOP to win, first they must address structural problems they have, i.e. it's NOT the nominees who have caused their POTUS issues. It is the positions the party has taken which has alienated America's fastest growing voting group, Latinos.

I did notice and mention before how easy (prior) Red States like NC were taking longer to call, and yes that is a harbinger of even worse things, when it happens in either parties safe states.

Spending lots of Team Red's time and $ in Va POTUS is, I fear, a waste of time. I do think Pa can be flipped but the key is Team Red must do far better (run up big margins) in the suburbs of the big cities still inside their MTSA or at least dominated by their big city's economy. I saw some great comparisons the last few elections showing drastic red bleeding there. Team Blue will get 90% of Philly's minority vote, they did long before Obama. But those burbs bleeding away from Red has gotten too little attention.

NOVA hasn't crested yet, Southern Va has, and that is what makes it GOP fools gold. Demographics matter, resources are LIMITED, and must be STRATEGICALLY placed. Pa's demographics are NOT changing much at all. That means built in Blue advantages are not getting bigger in Pa, but are in Va. One caveat-western Pa would vote far more for HC than Obama. That does mix Pa up some more. So intriguing.
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Old 01-10-2015, 12:50 PM
 
491 posts, read 243,056 times
Reputation: 219
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
On Election Night 2016, North Carolina will be an early signal, sort of a Republican "canary in a coal mine". It's the most Republican of the contestable states, and it's the first one to close its polls. If you are rooting for Team Pub, you want an early call of the race because your margin there is likely to be greater than in other states you need to win. In 2000, the networks called the state for Bush at 7:58. In 2004, it was called at 8:22. When Romney won it by 2 points in 2012, it was called after 10 and it was already apparent that he had lost. The last thing you will want to hear is "too close to call" for the longer it goes on without being called, the less likely that an R will win.

The states I'll be watching the closest will be Colorado and Pennsylvania, because those are the states likely to be on the cusp of the tipping point. Assuming the GOP wins, NC, FL and OH, they would have 253 EV. The next state that the R's would historically depend on is VA, but I think the rate of change in NOVA has pushed down that probability. Colorado is probably more winnable for them now than VA. If they lose VA, but win CO, the GOP would have 262 EV. Pennsylvania is statistically the blue wall state with the highest probability to flip and if you won that, you actually wouldn't need Colorado (253 + 20=273). If you lose Virginia and Penwnsylvania but win Colorado, you're at 262 and can still win by taking WI (10 EV) or a combination of IA (6) and NH (4). Nevada and New Mexico look to be off the table, to me at least. With Virginia and Colorado getting progressively dicier for the Pubs, it's becoming more of an imperative to flip a state or two of those 5 states in the East and Midwest that have been part of the Blue Wall or have voted that way at least 5 of the last times; Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. PA, IA and WI are the most realistic targets.
I normally would be very encouraged about PA, given that Obama won that state by a lesser margin (5.39%) than by which he won NH, IA, & WI. (This isn't all that different than the 4.17% margin by which Gore defeated Bush in that state.) This, of course, was in spite of the fact that polls showed him to be the overwhelming favorite in PA and, consequently, both candidates spent few resources in that state (except for a few last minute camapign appearances by Romney). However, PA will be hard for the GOP in 2016 because the Clintons (for some reason I can't understand) are especially popular in that state. If Christie is the standard-bearer, he may have a small chance of winning it, but I don't see how Bush could possibly win it.

Obama actually won CO by a tiny bit smaller margin than by which he won PA, 5.37%. Yet that state is rapidly trending so Democratic. We saw that this year when an unpopular governor won re-election against a moderate GOP candidate. And given the quality of the races that were executed, Gardner should have trounced Udall, but he won by less than 2%. In truth, the leftward shift has more to do with new transplants from CA than it does from demographics. As a result, the GOP would be foolish to try to spend lots of resources here (although I am sure they will be stupid and do so anyway).

VA may be a challenge for the GOP, but I don't see anything that indicates that it is as hard as CO for the GOP to win in 2016. This accounts for the fact that Northern Virginia is a liberal stronghold. A center-right candidate could very well have a respectable enough showing in the northern part of the state to put Virginia in the GOP column.
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