U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 01-15-2015, 08:40 PM
 
3,378 posts, read 3,235,208 times
Reputation: 709

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Only time will tell, but there are number of statistical trends to support the view that Virginia is rapidly becoming a Blue State.

Back in 1970, Virginia was the "Ole Virginny" of the days of the Byrd political machine. Sixty one percent of population lived in rural and small town Virginia and the state as a whole was very conservative. Less than 1 in 5 Virginians were minority and the vast majority were blacks who were denied the right to vote through the '50s and early '60s so the electorate was overwhelmingly white. As of the 2010 census, about 3 out of every 4 Virginians are now classified as urban, with over 70% of then living in NOVA, the Richmond Metro and Tidewater Virginia. The black population (19%) hasn't increased tremendously, but Hispanics (8%) and Asians (6%) have increased to the point where now fully 1 in 3 Virginians is a member of a minority group.

Virginia still has a large veteran population (12%) and large numbers of religious conservatives, but those groups and not increasing as a percentage of the population. The traditionally Republican area of Southwest Virginia is older than the rest of the state and losing population. The most Republican areas of the state are either declining or static, while the Democratic areas are exploding. Between 2000 and 2010, about 55% of the total growth of the state of Virginia occurred in Northern Virginia. If you exclude NOVA from the 2012 election, Mitt Romney won the balance of Virginia by 52-48% and by about 94,000. In NOVA, Obama won about 61% of the vote and amassed a margin of nearly a quarter of a million votes, which turned his deficit in the rest of the state to a margin of 149,000 votes or 3.9%, mirroring his national margin.

One of the strongest indicators of whether a state falls on the Red or Blue side of the political spectrum is the percentage of individuals in the state with advanced degrees. Of the 18 Blue Wall states that have voted for the Democrats since 1992, 16 fall in the upper half of states in this measure. In his book, "The Emerging Democratic Manority", Ruy Teixteira noted that if you looked at the states that were trending Democratic, it was often where you had a combination of either rising minority population, or concentrations of highly educated people drawn to employment in emerging industries, often based around leading research universities. Virginia ranks 4th nationally in the percentage of persons with advanced degrees, only behind solid blue Massachusetts, Maryland and Connecticut, and just ahead of New York and Vermont.

Andrew Gelman of Columbia University and Gary King of Harvard are two of the most respected statisticians/political scientists in the country. They developed a statistical model and a computer program for use in predicting statistical probabilities of elections. The program includes data from past elections, along with changes in the electorate projected due to demographic change. Probabilities of various scenarios are then examined using thousands of computer simulations. Their program was used by Ben Highton of Cal-Davis to examine the probabilities of which way 14 states that were even remotely contestable were likely to fall in 2012 and 2016. In the 2012 projections, these were the states listed as most likely to be carried by the Republicans in a 50/50 national election scenario, meaning results based solely on the tendencies of that particular state:

1: North Carolina
2. Florida
3. Ohio

These states represented the low hanging fruit if you will. Carry all of the safe Republican states and these three swing states and the GOP has 253 EV with 17 more needed. Odds for all three of these states to go R in a 50/50 election was more than 50%.

4. Virginia- odds for carrying Virginia in 2012 were rated at 50%, meaning a 50/50 chance in a 50/50 year. Carry all 4 states and you're at 266 EV.
5. Colorado- take Colorado's 9 EV in conjunction with the above 4 states and the GOP has 275 EV and has elected a President. These 5 states along with Nevada were carried by Dubya in his narrow wins in both 2000 (271 EV) and 2004 (286 EV).

Now look at the tipping order the program is forecasting for 2016:

The top 3 doesn't change. North Carolina, Florida and Ohio are still rated as the most likely Republican in a 50/50 year, although the percentages for a GOP win are marginally lower. But at this point, the tipping order changes. State #4 in statistical probability of a GOP win in 2016 is Colorado. It's not that the odds in Colorado are getting better. It actually declines from 37% to 25%, but becomes the 4th most likely because the odds in Virginia change so drastically. State #5 in the statistical pecking order is, not Virginia, but Pennsylvania, where the statistical odds for a GOP win edge up from 19% to 20%. State # 6 in the pecking order is not Virginia, but New Hampshire at a robust 13%.

Nevada and Virginia, 2 of the 6 states that Dubya used for those massive wins of 271 electoral votes in 2000 and 286 in 2004, are rated by the model as having a 7% chance of voting for a Republican in 2016. The data suggests that a Republican in 2016 is nearly 4 times as likely to carry Colorado and nearly 3 times as likely to carry Pennysylvania than he is to carry Nevada or Virginia.

There was an article after the 2012 election, I think in National Journal or Salon, that criticized the Romney campaign's decision to dump large amounts of advertising dollars into the Las Vegas and Virginia markets, while not putting a lot of resources in Pennsylvania. The way the writer put it was something like "the GOP needs to learn that Virginia isn't that attracted to him anymore and that he should ask Pennsylvania for a date."

I take the computer program results with a grain of salt. It rates the R chances in Iowa and Wisconsin as virtually nil, and I'm not sure I agree with that, but I do think it does identify the likely tipping order of states and the rate of change in states like Virginia.

As I said at the start of this post, only time will tell for sure.
Great post! I realize that NOVA is a problem for Repubs, but there is more to it. While I read your entire post, there are some other new trends that bode well for repubs. 1. Republicans won the governors race in Maryland. 2. Warner had an extremely close re-election. 3. The military/veteran vote will probably trend even higher for GOP because of Obama and war on terror. 4. The black vote will drop for dems (unless a black candidate runs again) 5. many Asians/hispanics are religious. These people are turning from dems for both social reasons as well as economic reasons.
I think the blatant disregard for working citizens will take a toll on dems. People realize the difference between legal and illegal immigrants. Those educated people who normally vote dem may now use their brain and switch to GOP. As you said, time will tell.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 01-15-2015, 09:34 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,235 posts, read 11,481,170 times
Reputation: 4305
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guamanians View Post
Great post! I realize that NOVA is a problem for Repubs, but there is more to it. While I read your entire post, there are some other new trends that bode well for repubs. 1. Republicans won the governors race in Maryland. 2. Warner had an extremely close re-election. 3. The military/veteran vote will probably trend even higher for GOP because of Obama and war on terror. 4. The black vote will drop for dems (unless a black candidate runs again) 5. many Asians/hispanics are religious. These people are turning from dems for both social reasons as well as economic reasons.
I think the blatant disregard for working citizens will take a toll on dems. People realize the difference between legal and illegal immigrants. Those educated people who normally vote dem may now use their brain and switch to GOP. As you said, time will tell.
1. The governor before Martin O'Malley was a Republican, The new guy winning isnt as big a feat as you are making it out to be, just like Democrats dont expect to win Montana just because they have had 2 straight Democratic governors.

2. Both Warner and the current governors had close races and they won Virginia in off year elections, Your point doesnt actually make sense,

3. Why would the military vote trend more towards republicans for the war on terror ???????

4.Black People voted for John Kerry with 89% to 94% of the vote depending on which exit poll you are looking at.

5. How are any of those ethnic groups turning against Dems, back your info up with something .
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 01-19-2015, 02:37 PM
 
3,378 posts, read 3,235,208 times
Reputation: 709
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
1. The governor before Martin O'Malley was a Republican, The new guy winning isnt as big a feat as you are making it out to be, just like Democrats dont expect to win Montana just because they have had 2 straight Democratic governors.

2. Both Warner and the current governors had close races and they won Virginia in off year elections, Your point doesnt actually make sense,

3. Why would the military vote trend more towards republicans for the war on terror ???????

4.Black People voted for John Kerry with 89% to 94% of the vote depending on which exit poll you are looking at.

5. How are any of those ethnic groups turning against Dems, back your info up with something .
ok, I'll debate you..

1. Maryland is a big-time democratic state. Yes, Md had a repub Governor, but I thought the times have changed? isn't that what (the media) all the smart liberals tell us?

2. Warner was supposed to win in a cake-walk! The GOP didn't even support Gilmore (if thats his name) and he still almost won. Warner WAS a very popular governor, and he won his 1st senate election by a much wider margin. How do you explain his narrow escape?

3. Does a football player want to sit on the bench? Our current president has handcuffed our troops. Do you not know that the military leans highly conservative? Don't you think that after 6 years of Obama that more military members will vote GOP? Besides Jim Webb, can you name one other pro-military democrat? When was the last time a democratic nominee campaigned for the military? Your side is going from bad to worse with the military vote.

4. Maybe, but John Kerry lost his election. Did Kerry do as well as Obama?

5. For years the dems have been at war with white males. The war has been cleverly disguised as a pro-diversity war designed to gain minority votes. It has worked pretty well. However, now that a minority is elected, we have seen no change. And, we are now seeing the war on Christians become the real issue. Many of those ethnic groups value their religion over their diversity. Attacking Christians is going to backfire.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 01-19-2015, 03:32 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,977 posts, read 15,437,762 times
Reputation: 3946
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guamanians View Post
ok, I'll debate you..

1. Maryland is a big-time democratic state. Yes, Md had a repub Governor, but I thought the times have changed? isn't that what (the media) all the smart liberals tell us?

2. Warner was supposed to win in a cake-walk! The GOP didn't even support Gilmore (if thats his name) and he still almost won. Warner WAS a very popular governor, and he won his 1st senate election by a much wider margin. How do you explain his narrow escape?

3. Does a football player want to sit on the bench? Our current president has handcuffed our troops. Do you not know that the military leans highly conservative? Don't you think that after 6 years of Obama that more military members will vote GOP? Besides Jim Webb, can you name one other pro-military democrat? When was the last time a democratic nominee campaigned for the military? Your side is going from bad to worse with the military vote.

4. Maybe, but John Kerry lost his election. Did Kerry do as well as Obama?

5. For years the dems have been at war with white males. The war has been cleverly disguised as a pro-diversity war designed to gain minority votes. It has worked pretty well. However, now that a minority is elected, we have seen no change. And, we are now seeing the war on Christians become the real issue. Many of those ethnic groups value their religion over their diversity. Attacking Christians is going to backfire.
1. Maryland is a heavily Democratic state, however that doesn't mean a Republican can't win a Governor's race in a midterm. Governor's races tend to be less partisan (Democrats recently had a two term Governor in Wyoming)

2. It was Gillepsie (the former RNC Chairman). That race being as close as it was, was absolutely a shock, no question about it. However, midterm turnout in NOVA being considerably down is not going to happen in a Presidential year.

3. You seem to think being pro-Military means war-first option, that simply isn't the case.

4. The shift in the black vote was small, the increased turnout did help. The difference in the Hispanic and Asian vote between Kerry and Obama was larger than the change in the black vote. The white vote was a bit stronger for Obama in 2008 than Kerry, in 2012 it was about even.

5. There is no war on white males. There is no war on Christians. FTW, I am a straight white Catholic(though borderline Agnostic) male in my early 30's.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 01-20-2015, 07:42 PM
 
3,378 posts, read 3,235,208 times
Reputation: 709
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
1. Maryland is a heavily Democratic state, however that doesn't mean a Republican can't win a Governor's race in a midterm. Governor's races tend to be less partisan (Democrats recently had a two term Governor in Wyoming)

2. It was Gillepsie (the former RNC Chairman). That race being as close as it was, was absolutely a shock, no question about it. However, midterm turnout in NOVA being considerably down is not going to happen in a Presidential year.

3. You seem to think being pro-Military means war-first option, that simply isn't the case.

4. The shift in the black vote was small, the increased turnout did help. The difference in the Hispanic and Asian vote between Kerry and Obama was larger than the change in the black vote. The white vote was a bit stronger for Obama in 2008 than Kerry, in 2012 it was about even.

5. There is no war on white males. There is no war on Christians. FTW, I am a straight white Catholic(though borderline Agnostic) male in my early 30's.
Your points about the mid-terms are a valid point. But... you missed my point about the military. The dems just can't (or won't) say anything nice about the military will they? Who do you think protects us overseas? Who is out there fighting for freedom? Is it so difficult for a liberal to act like he is pro military? Obama's attitude and disrespect towards the military is obvious. Dems need to turn this around. The families of military are also voters. The war on terror is only going to raise awareness that we need a strong military. This will be an issue in 2016.

The tide has turned for sure. Now, this doesn't guarantee future results, but it is real. If dems choose to act like it is 2008 then they will pay the price.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 01-20-2015, 11:05 PM
 
2,687 posts, read 1,839,800 times
Reputation: 1466
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guamanians View Post
Your points about the mid-terms are a valid point. But... you missed my point about the military. The dems just can't (or won't) say anything nice about the military will they? Who do you think protects us overseas? Who is out there fighting for freedom? Is it so difficult for a liberal to act like he is pro military? Obama's attitude and disrespect towards the military is obvious. Dems need to turn this around. The families of military are also voters. The war on terror is only going to raise awareness that we need a strong military. This will be an issue in 2016.

The tide has turned for sure. Now, this doesn't guarantee future results, but it is real. If dems choose to act like it is 2008 then they will pay the price.

1. The Dems, including Obama, say nice things about the military all the time.

2. Don't confuse being pro-military (both parties unabashedly claim to be pro-military) with being pro-war.

3. The military will not be a major issue in 2016. By what measure is the US military weak? The US spends more on defense than most of the rest of the world combined. We have more aircraft carriers (and each one of ours is vastly larger and more powerful than anyone else's) than all the rest of the worlds navies combined. We're the only country with a strategic bomber fleet that could effectively carry out WW II-style massive strategic bombing raids. The money we spend on our special forces alone exceeds most other country's entire military budgets.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 01-20-2015, 11:45 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,235 posts, read 11,481,170 times
Reputation: 4305
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guamanians View Post

3. Does a football player want to sit on the bench? Our current president has handcuffed our troops. Do you not know that the military leans highly conservative? Don't you think that after 6 years of Obama that more military members will vote GOP? Besides Jim Webb, can you name one other pro-military democrat? When was the last time a democratic nominee campaigned for the military? Your side is going from bad to worse with the military vote.
Smash addressed the others to a point where i feel i dont need to address them, but i wan to respond to this one.

People who join the military do not do it to fight in a war, they do it to defend their country IF NEEDED, comparing them to football players is insulting.

The military is also not highly conservative.

Quote:
A Pew survey released last year showed post-9/11 veterans’ political leanings are the reverse of the public they’re serving: 36% describe themselves as Republicans, and 21% as Democrats; 34% of the public said they were Democrats, and 23% Republican. Six in 10 vets say they’re more patriotic than the average American.
But there is conflicting evidence. The Center for Responsive Politics reported last month that self-described military personnel had donated $678,611 to Obama, 85% more than the $398,450 the Romney campaign has collected.


At best you mean to say they are more Republican than the nation at large, but by no means are they more conservative.


Does the Military Vote Really Lean Republican? | TIME.com
Also, your own definition of Pro military is equal to pro war( you said dont sit on the sideline ), Most people in the military are not pro war, And Jim Webb for sure not pro war.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 01-20-2015, 11:48 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,235 posts, read 11,481,170 times
Reputation: 4305
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guamanians View Post
Your points about the mid-terms are a valid point. But... you missed my point about the military. The dems just can't (or won't) say anything nice about the military will they? Who do you think protects us overseas? Who is out there fighting for freedom? Is it so difficult for a liberal to act like he is pro military? Obama's attitude and disrespect towards the military is obvious. Dems need to turn this around. The families of military are also voters. The war on terror is only going to raise awareness that we need a strong military. This will be an issue in 2016.

The tide has turned for sure. Now, this doesn't guarantee future results, but it is real. If dems choose to act like it is 2008 then they will pay the price.
He did not miss your point, he disagrees with your point as does every Democrat on this page.

Would you mind showing us what Any Democrat(A Federally elected on that is , President, Senate, House) that was anti military ?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 01-21-2015, 01:05 AM
 
12,639 posts, read 7,293,490 times
Reputation: 7449
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
He did not miss your point, he disagrees with your point as does every Democrat on this page.

Would you mind showing us what Any Democrat(A Federally elected on that is , President, Senate, House) that was anti military ?
They all are. Pro military Democrats like Joe Lieberman and Sam Nunn have no place in today's extremist Democrat Party. Do your own research.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 01-21-2015, 02:01 AM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,235 posts, read 11,481,170 times
Reputation: 4305
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trace21230 View Post
They all are. Pro military Democrats like Joe Lieberman and Sam Nunn have no place in today's extremist Democrat Party. Do your own research.
they all are is not an example, one again you can not prove your argument.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top