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"The overall context of my post was how Silver was so hyped by the left because he correctly predicted all 50 states in the last presidential election; I was pointing out that this "wonderful sage" Silver simply could have looked at the polls and automatically have been correct in 50 out of his 51 state-by-state predictions"
Your point is valid if we're comparing 538 to some other aggregate of polls -- Princeton Election Consortium, RCP, DKos, etc. On the other hand, Silver far outperformed the horse-sense of the ignorant punditry, whom conservatives seemed to give special weight to in the closing days of the campaign. I can remember George Will and Michael Barone predicting that Romney would win Minnesota, my home state. Ha!
I was referring to Obama's very thin victory in Florida; in 2012, he won that state by less than one percent (while I believe the RCP average of polls should Romney with a similar razor thin lead prior to election day in that state). I obviously know that Obama won the national popular vote by about 3.9%, but I wasn't referring to that. The overall context of my post was how Silver was so hyped by the left because he correctly predicted all 50 states in the last presidential election; I was pointing out that this "wonderful sage" Silver simply could have looked at the polls and automatically have been correct in 50 out of his 51 state-by-state predictions (counting DC as a state for our purposes). Romney's less than one percent lead in the Florida polls essentially represented a statistical tie, so I cannot see what made Silver so great for predicting an Obama victory in that state, either.
Your point is valid if we're comparing 538 to some other aggregate of polls -- Princeton Election Consortium, RCP, DKos, etc. On the other hand, Silver far outperformed the horse-sense of the ignorant punditry, whom conservatives seemed to give special weight to in the closing days of the campaign. I can remember George Will and Michael Barone predicting that Romney would win Minnesota, my home state. Ha!
I understand what your are saying, and it was so embarassing how many conservative pundits were just making up fairy-tale predictions. (I certainly don't expect you to take my word for it, but I always expected Romney to lose; for starters, he was never ahead in any OH poll, which is a must-win state for a GOP nominee. And unlike many Republicans, I remain skeptical of a 2016 GOP win, although I do think that our chances are certainly better than in 2012, and that the election--no matter who wins--will be considerably closer in both the popular and electoral vote.)
Aside from GOP partisans, I don't recall anyone predicting that Romney would win in places like MN, PA, or even WI. Larry Sabato, who has a much longer track record than Silver, correctly predicted every state except FL and VA. As we discussed before, FL was the closest state in the 2012 election (which was also reflected in the pre-Election Day polls), so my own personal opinion is that anyone was justified in predicting a FL victory for either candidate. Obama won VA by a slightly lower margin than by which he won the national popular vote (and by a slightly higher margin than he won OH); I seem to recall that the VA polls showed a very narrow Obama lead, but those polls turned out to be way off.
There is some interest in Democrats other than Hillary Clinton. I will enjoy working for one of them. Now matter who wins the Democratic primary I will work very hard to get out the democratic voters and completely support the nominee.
The basis of my support for the Democratic Party is although it may be heavily effected by the hyper wealthy it is not, as far as I can observe, owned by the hyper wealthy and their corrupt corporations.
My objection to Republican Party is manifold:
They continue to believe the government, as God's enforcer, should tell a woman that she cannot terminate a pregnancy for any reason. It is her body and not subject to anyone else's control.
They believe in supporting the collusive and corrupted socialist system that is the biggest of big business. Even banks big enough to cheat but too big to fail. Cronyism at its finest.
They support the Keystone pipeline, that will bring environmental risk to the US without any benefit to the US, to support their investments in the pipeline and the tar sands developments in Canada. This is absurd because this oil will be too expensive to be profitable.
They claim to be anti-immigration while employing illegals for their own profits.
They constantly whine about "welfare" while most of the Republican "RED" states in the middle of the country receive billions in the form of Farm supports, Gasohol subsides, Railroad price regulation and Government flood insurance.
They would cut the support for US veterans while involving us in ever more wars to protect their investments in the Middle East.
They have created a media propaganda machine that makes Gobbles cheer in hell.
The Republican party is, at it core, driven entirely by greed for the few and distain for anyone not already wealthy.
Although I may not agree with the Democratic Party's choice of a candidate for 2016 I will work for that candidate. I will not vote for any Republican.
I understand what your are saying, and it was so embarassing how many conservative pundits were just making up fairy-tale predictions. (I certainly don't expect you to take my word for it, but I always expected Romney to lose; for starters, he was never ahead in any OH poll, which is a must-win state for a GOP nominee. And unlike many Republicans, I remain skeptical of a 2016 GOP win, although I do think that our chances are certainly better than in 2012, and that the election--no matter who wins--will be considerably closer in both the popular and electoral vote.)
Aside from GOP partisans, I don't recall anyone predicting that Romney would win in places like MN, PA, or even WI. Larry Sabato, who has a much longer track record than Silver, correctly predicted every state except FL and VA. As we discussed before, FL was the closest state in the 2012 election (which was also reflected in the pre-Election Day polls), so my own personal opinion is that anyone was justified in predicting a FL victory for either candidate. Obama won VA by a slightly lower margin than by which he won the national popular vote (and by a slightly higher margin than he won OH); I seem to recall that the VA polls showed a very narrow Obama lead, but those polls turned out to be way off.
Not to nitpick, but he won VA by slightly larger than his national margin. He won natioanlly by 3.86%, and VA by 3.88%
2016 playbook is easy to predict: GOP must run the table on all swing states; Dems spend in all of them, GOP cannot effectively handle the required parlay of winning all. Hence the only way the GOP can succeed is to eliminate the required run the table, which means penetrating the Blue Wall with at least one red state inside it.
2016 playbook is easy to predict: GOP must run the table on all swing states; Dems spend in all of them, GOP cannot effectively handle the required parlay of winning all. Hence the only way the GOP can succeed is to eliminate the required run the table, which means penetrating the Blue Wall with at least one red state inside it.
You are totally wrong when you say that the GOP has to run the table in the swing states in order to win. Actually, all that he has to do is carry the Romney states (which obviously included the swing state of NC), plus FL, OH, IA, and either WI or VA. (With this scenario, the Democrat still wins the swing states of CO, NH, NM, NV, & PA.) If the Republican wins VA but loses WI, he has a total of 272 electoral votes. If the Republican wins WI but loses VA, he has 269, which still results in a GOP victory, because the GOP will almost certainly retain control of the House after the 2016 election.
Pa., Co & NM (due to demographics), plus NH & Nevada are hardly swing states.they are easy blue states.
Va is also blue now, NOVA did it, and NOVA is growing while the rest of Va isn't. Wisconsin is the GOP's fools gold, always look doable early, ends up a rather easy blue win.
Every one of the above will have a higher % of non-white male voters than 2012. It is getting harder, not easier, for the GOP.
You are sounding like Rove around September 2012, who used old demographic models to predict a rosy GOP POTUS path. Is he still wondering how Ohio 2012 will go? (LOL)
Time to face reality, it's bleak for GOP POTUS candidates. I agree Jeb has the best shot, but it is a very slim shot at that. He'll need to outdo 43 with Latino voters.
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I sincerely apologize for any confusion.
