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Old 12-13-2014, 09:37 AM
 
9,204 posts, read 9,280,929 times
Reputation: 28851

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First, a disclaimer. For anyone who doesn't already know it, I am a democrat. Most people here would probably say I'm a liberal too. Even so, I consider myself a moderate to conservative democrat who is troubled by the most left wing people in the party. I think the Election of 2016 greatly favors the democrats. Yet, I've seen elections thrown away by sheer stupidity. Here's my list of all the ways we could throw away the election:

1. Allow a huge primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren that bitterly divides some in the party.

2. Nominate Warren to be President, despite the fact that the party has always lost when it nominated a "Massachusetts Liberal" (Dukakis, Kerry) as its Presidential candidate.

3. Have no other agenda other than opposing anything that the GOP wants.

4. Keep up opposition to projects like the Keystone Pipeline which would, at the very least, bring many high-paying, short-term construction jobs to this country and, over the long-haul probably help to keep oil prices down.

5. Act like the only issues that matter in this country are "women's rights" issues.

6. Repeatedly demonize all business interests in this country and act like they are on the right-hand of Satan.

7. Fail to take threats in the Middle East like ISIS seriously.

8. Continue to blame George W. Bush for every problem in the country, despite the fact he's been out of office for six years now.

9. Pretend that Jeb Bush is not a serious candidate for President and do little to prepare for a race against him.

10. Take minority votes for granted when there is a rising tide of disatisfaction with both parties in the Hispanic and African American communities.

Winning in 2016, requires us to acknowledge and deal with these problems instead of putting our heads in the sand.
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Old 12-13-2014, 09:56 AM
 
Location: San Antonio Texas
11,435 posts, read 16,477,211 times
Reputation: 5224
Quote:
Originally Posted by markg91359 View Post
First, a disclaimer. For anyone who doesn't already know it, I am a democrat. Most people here would probably say I'm a liberal too. Even so, I consider myself a moderate to conservative democrat who is troubled by the most left wing people in the party. I think the Election of 2016 greatly favors the democrats. Yet, I've seen elections thrown away by sheer stupidity. Here's my list of all the ways we could throw away the election:

1. Allow a huge primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren that bitterly divides some in the party.

2. Nominate Warren to be President, despite the fact that the party has always lost when it nominated a "Massachusetts Liberal" (Dukakis, Kerry) as its Presidential candidate.

3. Have no other agenda other than opposing anything that the GOP wants.

4. Keep up opposition to projects like the Keystone Pipeline which would, at the very least, bring many high-paying, short-term construction jobs to this country and, over the long-haul probably help to keep oil prices down.

5. Act like the only issues that matter in this country are "women's rights" issues.

6. Repeatedly demonize all business interests in this country and act like they are on the right-hand of Satan.

7. Fail to take threats in the Middle East like ISIS seriously.

8. Continue to blame George W. Bush for every problem in the country, despite the fact he's been out of office for six years now.

9. Pretend that Jeb Bush is not a serious candidate for President and do little to prepare for a race against him.

10. Take minority votes for granted when there is a rising tide of disatisfaction with both parties in the Hispanic and African American communities.

Winning in 2016, requires us to acknowledge and deal with these problems instead of putting our heads in the sand.
you forgot to mention that the Dems need to stop acting like immigration reform is SO important.

On #2, let's not forget that the Electoral College has swung immensely since the Dukakis fiasco of 1988. Back then, Calif was a reliable "RED" state- lol. Dukakis was also looked like a doofus when he donned his Army helmet. Bush I (an incumbent) also pulled the famous "race card" to get scared whites into voting for him. white voters made up about 90% of the vote back then. It's not that way today. Kerry would have narrowly won if Ohio voting wasn't rigged. Again, did I mention that some of the states that were reliably RED back in those days are NOW reliably BLUE?
On #9. Jebbie could NEVER win in the Republican primary. He's staunchly pro-amnesty and did I mention that he's a Bush? Republicans don't win when they pick a moderate. Rushbo is right about that one.
On #10. where else are minority voters going to go? Repub candidates look good in off-years. But when the Dems bring out all of the right wing whacko positions of the Repubs in Pres election years, some minority voters will simply vote for the "lesser of 2 evils" like most americans these days.
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Old 12-13-2014, 12:01 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
72,014 posts, read 83,671,479 times
Reputation: 41805
Quote:
Originally Posted by wehotex View Post
you forgot to mention that the Dems need to stop acting like immigration reform is SO important.

On #2, let's not forget that the Electoral College has swung immensely since the Dukakis fiasco of 1988. Back then, Calif was a reliable "RED" state- lol. Dukakis was also looked like a doofus when he donned his Army helmet. Bush I (an incumbent) also pulled the famous "race card" to get scared whites into voting for him. white voters made up about 90% of the vote back then. It's not that way today. Kerry would have narrowly won if Ohio voting wasn't rigged. Again, did I mention that some of the states that were reliably RED back in those days are NOW reliably BLUE?
On #9. Jebbie could NEVER win in the Republican primary. He's staunchly pro-amnesty and did I mention that he's a Bush? Republicans don't win when they pick a moderate. Rushbo is right about that one.
On #10. where else are minority voters going to go? Repub candidates look good in off-years. But when the Dems bring out all of the right wing whacko positions of the Repubs in Pres election years, some minority voters will simply vote for the "lesser of 2 evils" like most americans these days.
Some of what you say might be true, like Ca in the 80s, not really reliably red, but certainly puple. But where you do astray is: 1-the scales swings back and forth, what the Ameridcans want one decade may or may not carry over to the next: 2-The right wing wackos you love to refer to and the same extremists with opposite views the left wing has. Look at those here who support Warren or Sanders. 3-minorities with the exception of blacks have been known to go both ways. 4-though I am not a supporter of Bush and I do not want him to run, this nonsense about ammensty and the GOP is totally off base. Most Republcians know somothing needs to be done, but not what the King seems to think is right.
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Old 12-13-2014, 12:38 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
21,482 posts, read 14,393,529 times
Reputation: 15883
I think the Keystone pipeline will be a dead issue by 2016.

There was nothing in it for Americans anyway except for a lot of potential catastrophe. It would not create all that many temporary jobs, and the jobs it would create are already needed in our own industrial sector right now.

It's not the jobs that will become the hot issue by 2016- it's the wages those jobs offer.

I also don't agree with your take on many of the other issues. Democrats are just as much businessmen as Republicans, and the Democratic party does not demonize American business. Neither do Democratic voters.

Democrats do not take foreign threats like ISIS any less seriously than Republicans.

Acknowledging women's issues exist is not the same as your claim that their issues are the only thing that matters to Democrats. They are not and never were. That the Democratic party attracts women is largely due to the Republican party's refusal to address any of their issues in a meaningful way. When the GOP snaps out of it, the Democrats won't get so many female voters by default as they do now.

Ex-Presidential blame isn't going to disappear in either party for years to come. Both Bush and Obama have made huge decisions that will affect us all for decades to come, and blaming past Presidents is nothing new in our society. Nixon and Johnson are still being blamed for their decisions decades after both died, and each remains a tinderbox when it comes to the blame game.
Blame only sticks when it sticks. As a political tool, it's weak and unreliable, as our opinions always shift around quickly. Much will depend in 2016 on today's events on either side.

How does the Democratic party ever prepare for a GOP candidate? The answer is all early candidates start getting looked at. Jeb Bush will certainly come under Democratic scrutiny when he declares, and he will be taken seriously. When the time comes.
Early prediction of who the other party's nominee will be seems to be more of a Republican weakness than a Democratic weakness. 2008 is a perfect example; the GOP was fully in gear to fight Hillary Clinton, the nominee they were sure would win, and they were caught flat footed when she failed.

It may be true that the Democrats take the minority votes more for granted. Since the GOP has willingly handed minority issues over to the Democrats for so long, an amount of taking them for granted is natural. But the Democratic party has known forever that minorities come in all political stripes. That is one reason the Democrats actively seek minority votes.

If anything, your post is a clarion call to the Republicans. You are point out what and where they need to work on.

Warren vs. Clinton in 2016? Who says? Right now, that entire statement that such a primary would split the Democrats down the middle is something that is not an affliction of the Democratic party. If such a split was to happen, it would have in 2008, when the primary fight went on all summer into early fall.

Thinking the Democrats will split like the GOP has isn't going to happen. Democrats are always in-fighting, but party purity is not an issue now and will not be in 2106.

Presuming Elizabeth Warren will be a candidate is a long stretch at the moment, as she has always said she's not interested in a Presidential run. Predicting she will fracture the party if she changes her mind is an even greater stretch.
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Old 12-13-2014, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
29,353 posts, read 39,780,905 times
Reputation: 18794
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
Some of what you say might be true, like Ca in the 80s, not really reliably red, but certainly puple. But where you do astray is: 1-the scales swings back and forth, what the Ameridcans want one decade may or may not carry over to the next: 2-The right wing wackos you love to refer to and the same extremists with opposite views the left wing has. Look at those here who support Warren or Sanders. 3-minorities with the exception of blacks have been known to go both ways. 4-though I am not a supporter of Bush and I do not want him to run, this nonsense about ammensty and the GOP is totally off base. Most Republcians know somothing needs to be done, but not what the King seems to think is right.
Most Republicans support the Senate CIR bill. So does King Barack. Think it has a chance? It might have had Boehner put it on the floor, but not now. Unfortunately for Republicans, immigration reform has become, with the EO and the "outrage", a litmus test for the primaries with the base who votes. If you are in favor of anything other than self-deportation (or maybe forcible deportation) you will fail in the primaries. So goodbye Rubio and Bush on that one alone. Whoever gets past that will have lost too much of the latino vote in the process to take the few states that might still be swing states.

Anyway, the only way dems lose in '16 is by failing to motivate their voters to show. It'll be a more difficult reach without hope and change politicking. But, I think Clinton's appeal as the first woman to be president might be the draw.
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Old 12-13-2014, 01:48 PM
 
48,516 posts, read 83,966,925 times
Reputation: 18050
Keeping do what they have been since 2008; its obvious more each election cycle since.
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Old 12-13-2014, 03:13 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,075,025 times
Reputation: 7282
The biggest danger Dems face is if the GOP passed Comprehensive Immigration Reform, backed with a pathway to citizenship, and if the GOP formally advocated removing all pro life sentiments from both the official platform and the campaign cycle.

The votes those 2 add for Dems plus the Blue Wall equals an almost insurmountable path to 270. Take those away, and the ballgame changes.
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Old 12-13-2014, 04:03 PM
 
11,057 posts, read 3,763,951 times
Reputation: 5197
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
The biggest danger Dems face is if the GOP passed Comprehensive Immigration Reform, backed with a pathway to citizenship, and if the GOP formally advocated removing all pro life sentiments from both the official platform and the campaign cycle.

The votes those 2 add for Dems plus the Blue Wall equals an almost insurmountable path to 270. Take those away, and the ballgame changes.


you mean if the GOP becomes the party of amnesty and becomes the party of abortions on demand with no restrictions. LMAO!!!....then that would make both parties the same.....LOL



most Americans are against amnesty and most Americans think abortion should be legal but rare and tax payers funds shouldn't pay for abortions on demand.

But thanks Bob for giving us your left wing progressive talking points in how the Republican Party should sell out and lose their base.
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Old 12-13-2014, 04:54 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,075,025 times
Reputation: 7282
Not being out there pro life no abortion and not taking an official position are NOT the same. The problem for the GOP and getting thrashed at POTUS is largely being on the fringes , when with a tiny Red Wall vs much larger EC BW, they must win the vast majority of moderates. Moderates are not staunchly pro life.

The same holds true for Immigration. a pathway to citizenship in the same bill strengthening the border would show moderates the GOP is not simply wing nuts in terms of POTUS candidates.

PS: The Dems are to the left of no official pro choice/life position, so no, a not take a stand would not make both the same.

I realize these are complex concepts for you, but you exist on the far right fringe of the nation. That is not who decides who gets sworn in 1/20/17.
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Old 12-13-2014, 09:59 PM
 
3,378 posts, read 3,243,332 times
Reputation: 709
Quote:
Originally Posted by markg91359 View Post
First, a disclaimer. For anyone who doesn't already know it, I am a democrat. Most people here would probably say I'm a liberal too. Even so, I consider myself a moderate to conservative democrat who is troubled by the most left wing people in the party. I think the Election of 2016 greatly favors the democrats. Yet, I've seen elections thrown away by sheer stupidity. Here's my list of all the ways we could throw away the election:

1. Allow a huge primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren that bitterly divides some in the party.

2. Nominate Warren to be President, despite the fact that the party has always lost when it nominated a "Massachusetts Liberal" (Dukakis, Kerry) as its Presidential candidate.

3. Have no other agenda other than opposing anything that the GOP wants.

4. Keep up opposition to projects like the Keystone Pipeline which would, at the very least, bring many high-paying, short-term construction jobs to this country and, over the long-haul probably help to keep oil prices down.

5. Act like the only issues that matter in this country are "women's rights" issues.

6. Repeatedly demonize all business interests in this country and act like they are on the right-hand of Satan.

7. Fail to take threats in the Middle East like ISIS seriously.

8. Continue to blame George W. Bush for every problem in the country, despite the fact he's been out of office for six years now.

9. Pretend that Jeb Bush is not a serious candidate for President and do little to prepare for a race against him.

10. Take minority votes for granted when there is a rising tide of disatisfaction with both parties in the Hispanic and African American communities.

Winning in 2016, requires us to acknowledge and deal with these problems instead of putting our heads in the sand.
Very good post. I have to wonder though... what makes you think that the 2016 elections favor the dems? Do you not think the mid-terms were real? I haven't seen a beating that bad since they strapped a bunch of bananas around me and turned a monkey loose.
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