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Old 01-05-2015, 01:02 PM
 
3,912 posts, read 4,057,403 times
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Webb ran the Navy Dept. for less than 10 months, quit and I hear they were happy to see him go. Outside of his combat unit that is his main managerial experience (other than a few years deep in the bureaucracy dealing with Reserve Affairs). Webb's greatest weakness is lack of much managerial experience. Hilary has more, fwiw.

I almost always prefer Governors to talking heads (or writers) but you still have to look for a Governor who actually managed and lead well vs. mostly sitting around issuing press releases.

I am not much a fan of Hilary because I am hardpressed to find major accomplishments. She has been in the game and mostly intends things I would agree with. More experience than Obama but in the same group, really, of talkers.

I'll look at O'Malley but probably would prefer Kaine or Warner. Webb will getting a hearing too.

If it is Hilary vs. a younger Rep. Governor she will be in jeopardy of losing a couple of Central / Midwest states (Most likely Ohio or WI), could lose Va and NC for sure. May ultimately turn on Fla again. These are very likely the main battlegrounds. Republicans probably have to win 4 of 5, 3 at bare minimum if they get an upset elsewhere.


Clinton has to rely on people mainly just voting based on income, gender, race and ideology. As they mostly do except for a relative few finally swayed by personality or resume. But if the Republican is almost as old or older or just a Congressional talking head, it will be easier for her.

A Clinton ticket is likely to have a VP Gov. Republicans pretty likely to have a VP woman but that usually doesn't matter much.

There is a decent chance Hilary trips up in the primaries but we are 14-16 months away from seeing what plays out in round 1. General election could be swayed by 3rd party votes somewhere again.

Last edited by NW Crow; 01-05-2015 at 02:11 PM..
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Old 01-05-2015, 03:18 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,968 posts, read 83,656,005 times
Reputation: 41778
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW Crow View Post
Webb ran the Navy Dept. for less than 10 months, quit and I hear they were happy to see him go. Outside of his combat unit that is his main managerial experience (other than a few years deep in the bureaucracy dealing with Reserve Affairs). Webb's greatest weakness is lack of much managerial experience. Hilary has more, fwiw.

I almost always prefer Governors to talking heads (or writers) but you still have to look for a Governor who actually managed and lead well vs. mostly sitting around issuing press releases.

I am not much a fan of Hilary because I am hardpressed to find major accomplishments. She has been in the game and mostly intends things I would agree with. More experience than Obama but in the same group, really, of talkers.

I'll look at O'Malley but probably would prefer Kaine or Warner. Webb will getting a hearing too.

If it is Hilary vs. a younger Rep. Governor she will be in jeopardy of losing a couple of Central / Midwest states (Most likely Ohio or WI), could lose Va and NC for sure. May ultimately turn on Fla again. These are very likely the main battlegrounds. Republicans probably have to win 4 of 5, 3 at bare minimum if they get an upset elsewhere.


Clinton has to rely on people mainly just voting based on income, gender, race and ideology. As they mostly do except for a relative few finally swayed by personality or resume. But if the Republican is almost as old or older or just a Congressional talking head, it will be easier for her.

A Clinton ticket is likely to have a VP Gov. Republicans pretty likely to have a VP woman but that usually doesn't matter much.

There is a decent chance Hilary trips up in the primaries but we are 14-16 months away from seeing what plays out in round 1. General election could be swayed by 3rd party votes somewhere again.
I don't think a 3rd party is likely to have much impact one way of the other. As for 14 to 16 months away, that is about right; things will take shape later this year and this time next year the campaigns will be underway.
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Old 01-05-2015, 10:14 PM
 
1,721 posts, read 1,007,320 times
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I generally agree with the OPs assessment of Hilary. She's very much like Gore in that she's intelligent, knowledgeable, managerial wonk rather than an inspired, charismatic visionary. As such, I'd be fine with her as POTUS, though she doesn't excite.

That said, I'm one of the many who fell for Obama's inspired, powerful campaign. I thought he would truly work to transform this country, but instead he's turned out to be a mostly fairly standard politician. I think one of the major reasons so many of us were disappointed by him is because our expectations were so high.

That probably won't be an issue for Hilary. If she becomes POTUS, I think she'll be almost exactly what we expect her to be: a centrist manager in much the same vein as her husband. And that strikes me as fine, even if it doesn't inspire me.
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Old 01-06-2015, 04:28 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,968 posts, read 83,656,005 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead View Post
I don't see how quoting e few GOP crazies means the GOP will never field a moderate woman.

If Libby Dole wanted to run, she would be appealing-though probably way too old, and I think Susana Martinez would also be a possibility, or Carly Fiorina. I am not sure I would vote for any of them, but I don't think any of them would go for this rape stuff. The question is whether the GOP would nominate a moderate woman over someone like Bachmann or Palin. The party has lurched right, so it is hard to know.

Martinez seems like she could be a lightweight, but if she made it into a debate with Clinton and survived, that image would rise or fall.

In any case, it is largely about demographics. The first woman president has to get women, minorities, and a sizable share of white men. I see Clinton failing with the last group. A moderate republican might do better.
We will find one and we already have a few in the backstage just waiting their turn. I always am amazed at people who think, a few comments represent the entire party. There seems to be a habit on the left, let's not forgive and forget and let's not look for the positive, only the most negative.
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Old 01-06-2015, 09:39 AM
 
Location: Texas
14,969 posts, read 14,216,807 times
Reputation: 4563
For whatever reason, a lot of people are excited about Hillary. I already see tons of cars with "Ready for Hillary" bumper stickers. I think people are really wanting to vote for a woman for political correctness but, ironically, are basing their support for her based on Bill's presidency. It makes no sense but it seems to be working, even for someone with virtually no charisma and no huge accomplishments.

In the 1920s and a bit later, Texas and some other states had female governors who were elected solely because their husbands were governors who were term-limited or had died. Honestly, I view Hillary as somewhat analogous to these women. A group of people (at least partially) want Bill, but can't have him because of term limits. It's a bit different because part of her appeal is solely that she's a woman and electing a woman is the PC thing to do, but it's still quite regressive - bizarre for the "progressive" party.

I apologize if this sounds at all crass, but I'm going to call it like I see it and not beat around the bush.

Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 01-06-2015 at 09:52 AM..
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Old 01-06-2015, 12:32 PM
 
Location: Pluto's Home Town
9,995 posts, read 11,677,920 times
Reputation: 5580
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanapolicRiddle View Post
I generally agree with the OPs assessment of Hilary. She's very much like Gore in that she's intelligent, knowledgeable, managerial wonk rather than an inspired, charismatic visionary. As such, I'd be fine with her as POTUS, though she doesn't excite.

That said, I'm one of the many who fell for Obama's inspired, powerful campaign. I thought he would truly work to transform this country, but instead he's turned out to be a mostly fairly standard politician. I think one of the major reasons so many of us were disappointed by him is because our expectations were so high.

That probably won't be an issue for Hilary. If she becomes POTUS, I think she'll be almost exactly what we expect her to be: a centrist manager in much the same vein as her husband. And that strikes me as fine, even if it doesn't inspire me.

To be honest, I think I agree. She would be competent, that is for sure. Just unexciting and entitled.

I guess a lot of my issue is that I am disgusted the Clinton clan wants to double dip. It seem unethical to me. She had plenty of access last time, and he said "two for the price of one" and all that. It seems to me that it is really just Billy Bob trying to make up for his "double dipping" while in office. I don't feel the country needs to be saddled with that baggage.
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Old 01-06-2015, 12:33 PM
 
Location: Pluto's Home Town
9,995 posts, read 11,677,920 times
Reputation: 5580
Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post
For whatever reason, a lot of people are excited about Hillary. I already see tons of cars with "Ready for Hillary" bumper stickers. I think people are really wanting to vote for a woman for political correctness but, ironically, are basing their support for her based on Bill's presidency. It makes no sense but it seems to be working, even for someone with virtually no charisma and no huge accomplishments.

In the 1920s and a bit later, Texas and some other states had female governors who were elected solely because their husbands were governors who were term-limited or had died. Honestly, I view Hillary as somewhat analogous to these women. A group of people (at least partially) want Bill, but can't have him because of term limits. It's a bit different because part of her appeal is solely that she's a woman and electing a woman is the PC thing to do, but it's still quite regressive - bizarre for the "progressive" party.

I apologize if this sounds at all crass, but I'm going to call it like I see it and not beat around the bush.
Sounds like a lot of Dems boomers are on autopilot.
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Old 01-06-2015, 01:32 PM
 
Location: WY
5,236 posts, read 3,756,095 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead View Post
To be honest, I think I agree. She would be competent, that is for sure. Just unexciting and entitled.

I guess a lot of my issue is that I am disgusted the Clinton clan wants to double dip. It seem unethical to me. She had plenty of access last time, and he said "two for the price of one" and all that. It seems to me that it is really just Billy Bob trying to make up for his "double dipping" while in office. I don't feel the country needs to be saddled with that baggage.
I'm not even sure that she would be competent. I haven't followed Hillary Clinton closely over the years so if she has tangible accomplishments as a NY state senator I would be interested in knowing what those accomplishments were. I cannot think of anything tangible and long lasting that she accomplished as SofS. If she has tangible accomplishments from a time before she became First Lady I would also be interested in learning about what she did.

I have no care at all what color or gender the next president is, and I would hope that many who voted for Obama simply to become part of a historic election have learned their lesson that electing "competent" is more important than electing "historic". But I don't have confidence that that is the case.

As a woman I would be extremely gratified to see a woman president, but it needs to be the right woman. I will never vote for a woman simply because. The international and domestic challenges and dangers facing this nation demand a highly qualified and competent individual.

I cringe at the thought of all those stupid women who would emotionally vote for her simply because of her gender. All those who will smile too broadly, speak too high pitched, hug too much and laugh too giddily and squeal their "we're WITH you Hillary!" slogans. So many who will want to be part of the emotional "Historic Hillary Hysteria" instead of critically reviewing her record, critically listening to her words, and critically evaluating whether she is up to the task of the presidency in the year 2015.

I hope that doesn't happen. My fear is that it will. My fear is that many will vote again based on emotion, instead of voting based on qualification.
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Old 01-06-2015, 02:57 PM
 
7,102 posts, read 2,518,721 times
Reputation: 3590
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead View Post
I don't see how quoting e few GOP crazies means the GOP will never field a moderate woman.

If Libby Dole wanted to run, she would be appealing-though probably way too old, and I think Susana Martinez would also be a possibility, or Carly Fiorina. I am not sure I would vote for any of them, but I don't think any of them would go for this rape stuff. The question is whether the GOP would nominate a moderate woman over someone like Bachmann or Palin. The party has lurched right, so it is hard to know.

Martinez seems like she could be a lightweight, but if she made it into a debate with Clinton and survived, that image would rise or fall.

In any case, it is largely about demographics. The first woman president has to get women, minorities, and a sizable share of white men. I see Clinton failing with the last group. A moderate republican might do better.
Yep. Elizabeth Dole is 78 years old.
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Old 01-06-2015, 03:53 PM
 
Location: MPLS
752 posts, read 449,226 times
Reputation: 458
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead View Post
"I have been thinking about Hillary Clinton this week, and my general impression is mid-level manager/ bureaucrat. She is competent, smart, and organized, and she has paid her dues. But no one is going to confuse her for a visionary or an inspirational leader. The dems have tried putting up boring, but otherwise solid people before. Carter, Mondale, Gore, Kerry...none of them ever caught fire, except Carter, and he was blown out of the water by a charismatic leader (Reagan).

I predict people will go with Hillary, and she will suffer the same fate."
Here's my prediction: if the economy is plodding along in 2016, Hillary will wrap herself in the aura of the Clinton years and win both the Democratic nomination and the presidency. If the economy is roaring, she may lose the nomination, but the eventual Democratic nominee will have a better shot in the general.
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