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Old 01-07-2015, 05:20 PM
 
5,767 posts, read 10,307,106 times
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Hillary has many political weaknesses, but it's not clear if the GOP candidate would be able to exploit them.

She voted for the Iraq war, which is largely unpopular among Democrats, but the GOP field is too hawkish to be able to call her out for that misjudgment. Only Rand Paul would be able to do so, but he's not a realistic candidate for many other reasons.

She's part of a political dynasty, but if Jeb is the nominee, then all the anti-dynastic arguments have to be scrapped.

And so on.
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Old 01-07-2015, 09:38 PM
 
Location: Anchorage, Alaska
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She's far too divisive to win. She may get the nomination but the GOP would have to field a real kook to lose to her.
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Old 01-07-2015, 10:33 PM
 
2,687 posts, read 1,846,564 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wynternight View Post
She's far too divisive to win. She may get the nomination but the GOP would have to field a real kook to lose to her.
lol

Seriously?
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Old 01-07-2015, 10:46 PM
 
Location: Anchorage, Alaska
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Votre_Chef View Post
lol

Seriously?
You think she can win?
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:36 PM
 
1,721 posts, read 1,007,925 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wynternight View Post
You think she can win?
As I cited earlier, even though the election is two years away and much can happen, polls indicate she's an overwhelming favorite. People who don't like her recite the mantra, 'She's so divisive!', when what they really mean is, 'I don't like her.'

Yes, she draws the ire of a vocal minority - mostly older white voters, esp men. But she'll do well with minorities, most women, and younger voters. That should be more than enough to overcome her weakness with grumpy old white men. Here are her latest numbers against the most likely Republicans:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 Presidential Polls
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:53 PM
 
Location: Anchorage, Alaska
3,843 posts, read 3,810,206 times
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Actually I meant she's divisive. If I don't like someone I have no problem coming out and saying it.

I don't like Hilary Clinton but I will take her over a TP nutjob like Perry, Santorum, or Cruz.
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:54 PM
 
Location: Anchorage, Alaska
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Interesting numbers BTW. I had no idea she was polling so high.
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Old 01-08-2015, 03:34 AM
 
2,687 posts, read 1,846,564 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wynternight View Post
You think she can win?
Let me put it this way:

It is illegal in the United States to bet on elections.

If it wasn't, I'd put all my money on the Democratic candidate winning the WH in 2016. It would be safer than an FDIC insured savings account at a reputable institution.

If Clinton runs, she'll likely win the nomination, there's no major candidate in the offing that can beat her. If she wins the nomination, she'll win the White House easily. The Democrats simply have a built-in advantage when it comes to the White House. The math behind the Democrats' electoral advantage has been gone over numerous times in these threads, so I'm not going to rehash it. But basically, in the electoral college, the Democrats get the ball in the red zone on the 5 yard line and the Republicans simply aren't going to keep them out of the end zone.
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Old 01-08-2015, 07:21 AM
 
Location: Texas
14,969 posts, read 14,222,045 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Votre_Chef View Post
Let me put it this way:

It is illegal in the United States to bet on elections.

If it wasn't, I'd put all my money on the Democratic candidate winning the WH in 2016. It would be safer than an FDIC insured savings account at a reputable institution.

If Clinton runs, she'll likely win the nomination, there's no major candidate in the offing that can beat her. If she wins the nomination, she'll win the White House easily. The Democrats simply have a built-in advantage when it comes to the White House. The math behind the Democrats' electoral advantage has been gone over numerous times in these threads, so I'm not going to rehash it. But basically, in the electoral college, the Democrats get the ball in the red zone on the 5 yard line and the Republicans simply aren't going to keep them out of the end zone.
The Democrats have little electoral college advantage. It exists but it's very minor. They have a moderate popular vote advantage if turnout of their voters is sufficient which may translate to such an advantage but it isn't because there's some "blue wall" (there's not). Hillary, unfortunately, is very likely to win - but not because she can lose the popular vote by 10 or even 3 and still win - but because she's likely to win the popular vote by 5-10 and, thus, in the electoral college. If Hillary did not run, actual polls (and I think she will run; not to mention this polling is sparse) suggest the GOP would have a decent chance depending on candidate.

Your sense of entitlement that every Democrat is simply entitled to win is pathetic.
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Old 01-08-2015, 10:26 AM
 
Location: Anchorage, Alaska
3,843 posts, read 3,810,206 times
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I'm thinking it's too early to count your Hilary before they hatch. I know what prevailing wisdom is in regards to the 2016 election but a lot can happen in the next year.

Expect Benghazi to be front page news on Fox every day if she announces.
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