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Old 01-08-2015, 10:59 AM
 
2,687 posts, read 1,836,656 times
Reputation: 1466

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Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post
The Democrats have little electoral college advantage. It exists but it's very minor. They have a moderate popular vote advantage if turnout of their voters is sufficient which may translate to such an advantage but it isn't because there's some "blue wall" (there's not). Hillary, unfortunately, is very likely to win - but not because she can lose the popular vote by 10 or even 3 and still win - but because she's likely to win the popular vote by 5-10 and, thus, in the electoral college. If Hillary did not run, actual polls (and I think she will run; not to mention this polling is sparse) suggest the GOP would have a decent chance depending on candidate.
There's a blue wall, the GOP can't breach it. Saying anything else is pure right wing wishful thinking. Don't think there's a blue wall? You show me the electoral math behind a Ted Cruz or Rand Paul (or any GOPer) victory. I could use a good laugh.

Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post
Your sense of entitlement that every Democrat is simply entitled to win is pathetic.
Who said they were entitled to it? I pointed out the likelihood of it happening, that was it.

If the Democrats can keep expecting to win the WH (and they can) that's all on the Republicans for failing miserably to appeal to enough people in order to seriously contend for the WH.
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Old 01-08-2015, 03:26 PM
 
1,721 posts, read 1,000,768 times
Reputation: 1117
Quote:
Originally Posted by Votre_Chef View Post
If Clinton runs, she'll likely win the nomination, there's no major candidate in the offing that can beat her. If she wins the nomination, she'll win the White House easily. The Democrats simply have a built-in advantage when it comes to the White House. The math behind the Democrats' electoral advantage has been gone over numerous times in these threads, so I'm not going to rehash it. But basically, in the electoral college, the Democrats get the ball in the red zone on the 5 yard line and the Republicans simply aren't going to keep them out of the end zone.
This. Very apt football metaphor. [Go Seahawks!]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wynternight View Post
Expect Benghazi to be front page news on Fox every day if she announces.
Beating that fossilized horse won't help Republicans, and in fact might hurt them. Benghazi is only a major issue for voters who are never going to vote for her anyway, so it doesn't matter.
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Old 01-08-2015, 03:32 PM
 
Location: Anchorage, Alaska
3,843 posts, read 3,792,418 times
Reputation: 3074
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanapolicRiddle View Post
This. Very apt football metaphor. [Go Seahawks!]


Beating that fossilized horse won't help Republicans, and in fact might hurt them. Benghazi is only a major issue for voters who are never going to vote for her anyway, so it doesn't matter.
The TP fringe has shown an institutional willingness to continue on issues anyone sane would consider political suicide. It's 2015 and we still have Birthers out there.
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Old 01-09-2015, 12:05 PM
 
Location: Annandale, VA
5,098 posts, read 4,291,801 times
Reputation: 4204
Hillary is toast. Her husband got caught banging underaged girls on a tropical island. We don't need that predator back in the White House.
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Old 01-09-2015, 04:14 PM
 
Location: MPLS
752 posts, read 446,422 times
Reputation: 458
Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post
"The Democrats have little electoral college advantage. It exists but it's very minor. They have a moderate popular vote advantage if turnout of their voters is sufficient which may translate to such an advantage but it isn't because there's some "blue wall" (there's not)."
You've got it backwards. Take the 2012 election. If you subtract 2% from Obama's national vote total and add it to Romney's, Romney wins the popular vote. However, the same 2% swing in each state still leaves Obama with 272 electoral votes.
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