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Old 01-20-2015, 06:17 PM
 
12,973 posts, read 12,738,017 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by armourereric View Post
If we assume the OP to be correct, then by the same logic 2018 will be a bloodbath for the Dems: The demographics on 2018 is even worse for the D team than 2014. I do believe that 2016 Senate will be difficult for the GOP, but the likelihood of a stronger bounce back in '18 is greater and even more so if Clinton wins.
And then we get to the critical election for the 20s. We have a Presidential year and the census. So we again redistrict. Way too far out to even think about but it will likely be the election that sets the tone for that decade...Can the democrats manage to maintain a growing economy until then? Will Hillary or whoever screw it up? Stay tuned.
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Old 01-20-2015, 06:34 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,794 posts, read 14,223,537 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
The GOP will lose the Senate as the numbers are overwhelming, and what went under the radar is had they taken the Senate by 2010 instead of running clowns like Engle and the Maryland witch, they would have a bigger majority now, and perhaps stand a shot at holding 51 in 2016.
http://www.city-data.com/forum/elect...-will-gop.html

Bob you predicted 6 lost Senate seats for Dems in 2014. The actual was 9 so you were 33 percent off. And that was only 4 months before the election, so what makes you think now that you can predict almost two years ahead?
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Old 01-20-2015, 06:35 PM
 
Location: North Beach, MD on the Chesapeake
33,835 posts, read 41,902,030 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvoc View Post
And then we get to the critical election for the 20s. We have a Presidential year and the census. So we again redistrict. Way too far out to even think about but it will likely be the election that sets the tone for that decade...Can the democrats manage to maintain a growing economy until then? Will Hillary or whoever screw it up? Stay tuned.
Redistricting won't have an impact until 2022.
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Old 01-20-2015, 06:45 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by North Beach Person View Post
Redistricting won't have an impact until 2022.
But it is the legislatures elected in the 2020 sequence who control the process. We see the results in the 2022 election.
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Old 01-20-2015, 07:02 PM
 
3,647 posts, read 2,319,455 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvoc View Post
And then we get to the critical election for the 20s. We have a Presidential year and the census. So we again redistrict. Way too far out to even think about but it will likely be the election that sets the tone for that decade...Can the democrats manage to maintain a growing economy until then? Will Hillary or whoever screw it up? Stay tuned.
Plus we still have a trending red wave at the state capitol level that does the redistricting and at some point could go as far as tripping the constitutional convention protocols.

I still think that the more liberal 2016 goes, the greater the backlash in 2018.
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Old 01-20-2015, 07:08 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,019,107 times
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24-10 wutitz, the most lopsided it has been in decades.
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Old 01-20-2015, 07:49 PM
 
3,378 posts, read 3,234,916 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjthejetplane View Post
There is no doubt that Democrats got blasted in 2014, even more so then in 2010 during the Tea Party Movement. However, what many gleeful conservatives forget is that the tables are literally turned in 2016. The Republicans have to defend 24 seats while the Democrats only defend 10. Moreover, almost all of the vulnerable incumbents will be GOP.

10 senators who could lose in 2016 | TheHill

The list identifies the top 10 most vulnerable incumbents in 2016. 8 of the 10 are Republican with 4 or 5 in certain striking distance.

Kirk is the first one that comes to mind, especially in a state that elected a Democratic Senator during a midterm year in 2014. Chicago should be out in strength in 2016, so it appears Kirk's days in the Senate could be limited to one term.

Ron Johnson is also one considered to be in trouble, especially since Wisconsin votes Democratic during presidential election. (Fair weather voters) Last presidential election, state icon Tommy Thompson lost to newcomer hard left Tammy Baldwin. Moreover, Feingold is rumored to run again and could electrify the Wisconsin voting base.

New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio are all looking very uncertain as well.

If the GOP suffer from the same mistakes in 2016 as they did in 2012, they can say goodbye to another presidency and their Senator majority.
Wow you're optimistic. Some valid points, but VERY optimistic. A few thoughts.

1. feingold? if that is the dems best hope then the GOP will win in a landslide.
2. NC and Florida are looking good for GOP. The dems threw everything they had into Florida and lost. They also lost a special election as well. The party is over in Fla. NC is showing it's true colors. Again, dems threw everything into the ring with Kay Hagan and lost. The few voters on the fence saved Obama's butt in 2012. They are off the fence now!
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Old 01-20-2015, 08:02 PM
 
293 posts, read 260,264 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guamanians View Post
Wow you're optimistic. Some valid points, but VERY optimistic. A few thoughts.

1. feingold? if that is the dems best hope then the GOP will win in a landslide.
2. NC and Florida are looking good for GOP. The dems threw everything they had into Florida and lost. They also lost a special election as well. The party is over in Fla. NC is showing it's true colors. Again, dems threw everything into the ring with Kay Hagan and lost. The few voters on the fence saved Obama's butt in 2012. They are off the fence now!
Except hagan lost in a midterm. Presidential elections are different ball games for Florida and NC.

Also Wisconsin voted in Tammy Baldwin in 2012. How do you go from Ron Johnson to Tammy Baldwin? The answer is a difference in elections. Feingold has a strong name and in a presidential election he will be a force against Johnson if he runs. Johnson also has done next to nothing in Congress. He has grown to being boring and lacking a platform. Without the TEA party wave, he will face a rough election.
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Old 01-21-2015, 12:30 AM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,794 posts, read 14,223,537 times
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Predictions are generally a poor substitute for a debate over ideas. Kevin Phillips as a young aide to Richard Nixon had a book entitled 'The Emerging Republican Majority' circa 1969.
The Emerging Republican Majority: Kevin P. Phillips: 9780870000584: Amazon.com: Books

He later became a lefty loon, but that's another story. Anyway, the Democrats largely dominated the 1970's. Another pair of punditry experts, Judis and Texiera, had a book entitled 'The Emerging Democratic Majority' in the late 1990's.
http://www.amazon.com/Emerging-Democ.../dp/0743254783

By 2000 Republicans won the WH, Senate, and House. After that Karl Rove talked about a 40 year dynasty for the GOP.

By 2008 Dems controlled the white house, senate, and house.

If all these breathless predictions had any values, those who make them would not be writing books and posting on the internet, but making millions if not billions. With so much $$$$ flowing through gov't now, here are megabucks riding on who wins the next election.
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Old 01-21-2015, 12:33 AM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,228 posts, read 11,479,282 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz View Post
How well did this kind of analysis do in predicting the 2014 results? Crappy.
Actually most people said the Democrats would likely lose the senate or barely keep it and we lost 12(i think seats in the House, which isnt that much.

So how was it a crappy predictor ?
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