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Old 01-21-2015, 12:37 AM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,452 posts, read 16,443,329 times
Reputation: 5967

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjthejetplane View Post
There is no doubt that Democrats got blasted in 2014, even more so then in 2010 during the Tea Party Movement.
No it wasnt.

in 2010 Republicans won 63 seats in the House
in 2014, they only won 12.

in 2010 they won 6 Senate seats
in 2014, they won 9.


2014 was far worse than 2010.
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Old 01-21-2015, 12:38 AM
 
12,638 posts, read 8,931,892 times
Reputation: 7458
After 8 years of Democrat failure, the GOP will do just fine no matter what the map looks like. Americans are tired of left wing policies. They don't work.
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Old 01-21-2015, 12:40 AM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,452 posts, read 16,443,329 times
Reputation: 5967
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trace21230 View Post
After 8 years of Democrat failure, the GOP will do just fine no matter what the map looks like. Americans are tired of left wing policies. They don't work.
Your Party has controlled the House of representatives since 2010. What Left Wing policies came out of the House that your party didnt agree with ?
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Old 01-21-2015, 11:16 AM
 
12,973 posts, read 15,762,680 times
Reputation: 5478
The good probability prediction were close. But it is not important.

What we are seeing is a huge differential in voter turn out in off year elections which appears to heavily favor Republicans. But in the Presidential years we get a much heavier turn out which heavily favors Democrats.

The Republicans probably got as good a shot as they will have for a while in 2012. And basically they got shellacked. Reasonably a popular populist Democrat such as Hillary is going to do far better with a better and improving economy. And that is likely to create powerful coat tails for the Democrats.

It is not going to be a good Republican year.
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Old 01-21-2015, 11:23 AM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
12,287 posts, read 9,797,822 times
Reputation: 6509
I think republicans will lose some seats in the senate in 2016, though I doubt they will lose enough to lose control of the senate. You have to remember, around 95% of congress that runs for re election gets elected. The swing come when a seat is vacated (which we had a lot of in 2014). The swing could be more if a bunch of republicans do not run for re election in battleground states, I have not heard that to be the case so far, but we are still aways away.
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Old 01-21-2015, 11:41 AM
 
12,973 posts, read 15,762,680 times
Reputation: 5478
Quote:
Originally Posted by shooting4life View Post
I think republicans will lose some seats in the senate in 2016, though I doubt they will lose enough to lose control of the senate. You have to remember, around 95% of congress that runs for re election gets elected. The swing come when a seat is vacated (which we had a lot of in 2014). The swing could be more if a bunch of republicans do not run for re election in battleground states, I have not heard that to be the case so far, but we are still aways away.
The numbers for the Republicans in the Senate are really terrible. You have a Presidential election which favors Democrats strongly and a number of Republicans elected in blue states during a strong Republican off year election.

It will take a Democratic disaster for the Republicans to hold the Senate. I would think the only way would be a Republican victory in the Presidential race.
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Old 01-21-2015, 12:03 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
12,287 posts, read 9,797,822 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvoc View Post
The numbers for the Republicans in the Senate are really terrible. You have a Presidential election which favors Democrats strongly and a number of Republicans elected in blue states during a strong Republican off year election.

It will take a Democratic disaster for the Republicans to hold the Senate. I would think the only way would be a Republican victory in the Presidential race.
History says differently. 95% of congressman get re elected. The real fights come from open seats (which 2014 had an un natural amount of in competitive states). 2016 doesn't seem to have many vacant seats, at least not yet. It would take a lot for dems to pick up 5 seats in the senate to get control, 2-3 is much more realistic and not enough to swing the balance of power.

Planning on dems to have a turn out the size of 08 or even 12 is also a stretch. Obama got people to the polls better than any other person in recent memory, at the same time McCain and Romney were equally bad at the ground game (which reps improved on in 14, they are actually learning from previous mistakes for a change). Turn out in 16 will not nearly be a lopsided in the past. It will be a much tighter race for president (but dems can still very well win) but the coat tails will not be there for a 5 seat swing.
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Old 01-21-2015, 12:11 PM
 
4,571 posts, read 3,389,509 times
Reputation: 2592
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvoc View Post
The numbers for the Republicans in the Senate are really terrible. You have a Presidential election which favors Democrats strongly and a number of Republicans elected in blue states during a strong Republican off year election.

It will take a Democratic disaster for the Republicans to hold the Senate. I would think the only way would be a Republican victory in the Presidential race.
2016 numbers are really terrible for the GOP, but my point is, utilizing the same metrics, 2018 is even worse for Democrats.
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Old 01-21-2015, 01:14 PM
 
720 posts, read 700,804 times
Reputation: 1213
Quote:
Originally Posted by kmarc View Post
Whether you're a repub or a dem, it's GO, TEAM, GO! Right? And just remember, right wing, left wing, lib or con, the coaches and players don't give a rat's patootie about the fans.

But, rah-rah, sis-boom-bah!
When will people realize our two dominate parties are wolves in sheep's clothing. They by no means have our interest at heart. Has the American population been so dumbed down that they can't clearly see the government that use to be ours, is now controlled by mega banks and corporations? We as Americans have essentially lost our country, the fact hidden by clever politicians. Would our great grandparents have stood idly by while Pseudo leaders implemented such atrocities as the department of "Homeland Security" The NSA, The constitutional destroying over reach of the current administration, the socializing of our healthcare, The USDA turning a blind eye to Monsanto allowing inadequate tested GMOs without labeling to prevent us from having a choice , an out of control EPA who writes their own law and implements politically correct mandates upon innocent citizens, a Bureau of land management who systematically is stealing land from rightful owners. Presidents who look the American people in the eye and willingly lie. Politicians who use Hitler tactics to remove our second amendment rights under the guise of "Safety" Judges who legislate from the bench, Weak kneed politicians who bend to Islamic elements infiltrating our country. A government who willingly ignores the immigration laws already on the books despite the will of the people. A government that calls its constitutional protected Militias, terrorist. Government sponsored training that labels our founding fathers as Domestic terrorist. The militarization of our police forces, A Department of Education that pushes radical agendas to produce politically correct clones from public schools. A government that stifles innovation and motivation in it's citizens through taxation, massive regulation and interference into the private sector. Coining the term "Too big to Fail" These are only the tip of the ice berg. Our constitution and the insight from our founding fathers have worked for over two hundred years. We now have those in full power that want all those constitutional protections and ideologies gone and out of the way. The only big stumbling block they must remove to have total control is the second amendment. All one has to do is watch the news and the voting records of our Congress to see who the perpetrators of this evil manifesto are. May God open the eyes of those that have become so blind so they can become a force against this tyranny.
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Old 01-21-2015, 02:26 PM
 
5,687 posts, read 7,150,460 times
Reputation: 4326
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mistoftime View Post
When will people realize our two dominate parties are wolves in sheep's clothing. They by no means have our interest at heart. Has the American population been so dumbed down that they can't clearly see the government that use to be ours, is now controlled by mega banks and corporations? We as Americans have essentially lost our country, the fact hidden by clever politicians. Would our great grandparents have stood idly by while Pseudo leaders implemented such atrocities as the department of "Homeland Security" The NSA, The constitutional destroying over reach of the current administration, the socializing of our healthcare, The USDA turning a blind eye to Monsanto allowing inadequate tested GMOs without labeling to prevent us from having a choice , an out of control EPA who writes their own law and implements politically correct mandates upon innocent citizens, a Bureau of land management who systematically is stealing land from rightful owners. Presidents who look the American people in the eye and willingly lie. Politicians who use Hitler tactics to remove our second amendment rights under the guise of "Safety" Judges who legislate from the bench, Weak kneed politicians who bend to Islamic elements infiltrating our country. A government who willingly ignores the immigration laws already on the books despite the will of the people. A government that calls its constitutional protected Militias, terrorist. Government sponsored training that labels our founding fathers as Domestic terrorist. The militarization of our police forces, A Department of Education that pushes radical agendas to produce politically correct clones from public schools. A government that stifles innovation and motivation in it's citizens through taxation, massive regulation and interference into the private sector. Coining the term "Too big to Fail" These are only the tip of the ice berg. Our constitution and the insight from our founding fathers have worked for over two hundred years. We now have those in full power that want all those constitutional protections and ideologies gone and out of the way. The only big stumbling block they must remove to have total control is the second amendment. All one has to do is watch the news and the voting records of our Congress to see who the perpetrators of this evil manifesto are. May God open the eyes of those that have become so blind so they can become a force against this tyranny.
Absolutely, very well said.

I have basically withdrawn my support, to the degree that I can, from this current "system". I carefully note the attitudes and statements of the people with whom I come in contact, to see if there are those among them who would drag me down with them.

The best that people can do, if they are concerned, is take steps to minimize the damage to themselves.
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