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There is no doubt that Democrats got blasted in 2014, even more so then in 2010 during the Tea Party Movement. However, what many gleeful conservatives forget is that the tables are literally turned in 2016. The Republicans have to defend 24 seats while the Democrats only defend 10. Moreover, almost all of the vulnerable incumbents will be GOP.
The list identifies the top 10 most vulnerable incumbents in 2016. 8 of the 10 are Republican with 4 or 5 in certain striking distance.
Kirk is the first one that comes to mind, especially in a state that elected a Democratic Senator during a midterm year in 2014. Chicago should be out in strength in 2016, so it appears Kirk's days in the Senate could be limited to one term.
Ron Johnson is also one considered to be in trouble, especially since Wisconsin votes Democratic during presidential election. (Fair weather voters) Last presidential election, state icon Tommy Thompson lost to newcomer hard left Tammy Baldwin. Moreover, Feingold is rumored to run again and could electrify the Wisconsin voting base.
New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio are all looking very uncertain as well.
If the GOP suffer from the same mistakes in 2016 as they did in 2012, they can say goodbye to another presidency and their Senator majority.
Republican Candidates venturing out, no one can say that about the DNC. The DNC is even rumor not to have debates and what they are really saying is" Clinton is our woman"
Good for Republicans, because Clinton is not well likes by everyone in the Party. They have Warren as the Anti Clinton answer.
Republicans have a strong team on the beach and it should be interesting to see how this lays out.
I would think the Republican best case is to hold the house. The Senate is as above stacked for a bad Republican year. The Presidential run is likely going to come off a booming economy with low unemployment...almost a guaranteed Republican loss. The house will be hard in a Democrat landslide though perhaps the gerrymander is sufficient. The Republicans will likely have trouble with that though come the 2020 census and a Presidential year.
Whether you're a repub or a dem, it's GO, TEAM, GO! Right? And just remember, right wing, left wing, lib or con, the coaches and players don't give a rat's patootie about the fans.
It is not a really a blog, more of an analysis from a reputable outlet source that pays people who understand statistics, elections and politics.
The numbers themselves do not lie. Stop kidding yourself.
The election is over a year and a half away. I've been around long enough to hear all of this before from both sides long before an election. Even the most reliable sources along with statistics doesn't know what's going to happen in the next 20+ months.
There is no doubt that Democrats got blasted in 2014, even more so then in 2010 during the Tea Party Movement. However, what many gleeful conservatives forget is that the tables are literally turned in 2016. The Republicans have to defend 24 seats while the Democrats only defend 10. Moreover, almost all of the vulnerable incumbents will be GOP.
The list identifies the top 10 most vulnerable incumbents in 2016. 8 of the 10 are Republican with 4 or 5 in certain striking distance.
Kirk is the first one that comes to mind, especially in a state that elected a Democratic Senator during a midterm year in 2014. Chicago should be out in strength in 2016, so it appears Kirk's days in the Senate could be limited to one term.
Ron Johnson is also one considered to be in trouble, especially since Wisconsin votes Democratic during presidential election. (Fair weather voters) Last presidential election, state icon Tommy Thompson lost to newcomer hard left Tammy Baldwin. Moreover, Feingold is rumored to run again and could electrify the Wisconsin voting base.
New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio are all looking very uncertain as well.
If the GOP suffer from the same mistakes in 2016 as they did in 2012, they can say goodbye to another presidency and their Senator majority.
How well did this kind of analysis do in predicting the 2014 results? Crappy. ObamaCare has been the driver of US elections since it was passed in March, 2010, and my guess would be that this will continue. King vs. Burwell is coming up in June 2015, which could prove to be another cluster. The "Cadillac tax" kicks in 2018, and employers are already taking steps to reduce benefits in antipiciation.
Recruitment is key as well, and no one can predict how that will go. If the GOP continues to come up with bright young candidates like Joni Ernst, Mia Love, Elise Stefanik, etc, they will continue to thrive. And if Dems continue to push aging leaders like Pelosi, Reid, Hillary, Durbin, and Jerry Brown they will continue to struggle. There is no law of physics that says that Republicans must be young and bright, while Democrats must be old and decrepit. So we will find out it 2016.
If we assume the OP to be correct, then by the same logic 2018 will be a bloodbath for the Dems: The demographics on 2018 is even worse for the D team than 2014. I do believe that 2016 Senate will be difficult for the GOP, but the likelihood of a stronger bounce back in '18 is greater and even more so if Clinton wins.
The GOP will lose the Senate as the numbers are overwhelming, and what went under the radar is had they taken the Senate by 2010 instead of running clowns like Engle and the Maryland witch, they would have a bigger majority now, and perhaps stand a shot at holding 51 in 2016.
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Dems Hope so!
