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Old 02-07-2015, 01:19 AM
 
2,206 posts, read 1,466,676 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xboxmas View Post
And Republicans won in 2000 and 2004. Did you think that the Democrats would never win again back then? And don't try telling me "but times have changed since then, blah blah."

Your go to excuse is always "turnout was low."
You won what in 2000 and 2004? You're talking about when they lost the popular vote? Dems won the Popular vote and the electoral college decisively, and it's well known that the voting demographic has changed since then. Blacks even out voted Whites in 2012. More Hispanic and Minority votes went to the Dems in 2008 and 2012. Dems won the female vote by 12 points in 2012 lol.. Less White males voted in the last 2 elections. Then again, you have a huge deficit in the electoral college. Most importantly, the GOP doesn't really have any electable candidates.
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Old 02-07-2015, 01:24 AM
 
2,206 posts, read 1,466,676 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeywrenching View Post
try looking again, being democrat or republican has never won an election, it is the independents that always carry an election one way or the other and independents have always been fickle about who they elect.

if the independents could field a potus candidate, then the dems and the repubs would never have another potus again.
The changing demographic won the election... Do you not realize that Obama could had lost Florida and Ohio in both the 2008 and the 2012 election and still won just with all the solid Blue states?lol..
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Old 02-07-2015, 01:25 AM
 
2,767 posts, read 2,481,802 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DoniDanko View Post
You won what in 2000 and 2004? You're talking about when they lost the popular vote? Dems won the Popular vote and the electoral college decisively, and it's well known that the voting demographic has changed since then. Blacks even out voted Whites in 2012. More Hispanic and Minority votes went to the Dems in 2008 and 2012. Dems won the female vote by 12 points in 2012 lol.. Less White males voted in the last 2 elections. Then again, you have a huge deficit in the electoral college. Most importantly, the GOP doesn't really have any electable candidates.
Of course the blacks turned out in high numbers in 2008 and 2012.

And who is "so much more electable" for the Democrats? That old hag who failed as secretary of state?
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Old 02-07-2015, 01:30 AM
 
2,206 posts, read 1,466,676 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xboxmas View Post
Of course the blacks turned out in high numbers in 2008 and 2012.

And who is "so much more electable" for the Democrats? That old hag who failed as secretary of state?
Hillary will easily win the Women, Blacks, Hispanics, gays, poor, and non Christians vote. Add that to the the huge electoral head start, and the GOP is toast. They just CAN NOT win anymore with only courting the White male, Christian, and top 1% vote while insulting the rest of the country.
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Old 02-07-2015, 01:36 AM
 
2,767 posts, read 2,481,802 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DoniDanko View Post
Hillary will easily win the Women, Blacks, Hispanics, gays, poor, and non Christians vote. Add that to the the huge electoral head start, and the GOP is toast. They just CAN NOT win anymore with only courting the White male, Christian, and top 1% vote while insulting the rest of the country.
Why would she? What has she done that makes her so great? What makes you think she appeals to those demographics? And how does the GOP only appeal to those that you listed? The GOP could run a younger candidate and appeal to the younger crowd. Would you rather vote for somebody old enough to be your grandmother or young enough to be able to appeal to you and relate to you? And if Marco Rubio or Ben Carson run, then what? Even if they shifted 5% of blacks away from the democrats it would still make a difference. And that scares the left.

Jeb Bush is fairly popular with the Hispanics.

I know I would rather see new blood than the old hag Hillary.
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Old 02-07-2015, 01:43 AM
 
2,206 posts, read 1,466,676 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xboxmas View Post
Why would she? What has she done that makes her so great? What makes you think she appeals to those demographics? And how does the GOP only appeal to those that you listed? The GOP could run a younger candidate and appeal to the younger crowd. Would you rather vote for somebody old enough to be your grandmother or young enough to be able to appeal to you and relate to you? And if Marco Rubio or Ben Carson run, then what? Even if they shifted 5% of blacks away from the democrats it would still make a difference. And that scares the left.

I know I would rather see new blood than the old hag Hillary.
LOL You're lying to yourself if you actually believe that after taking history and the relentless negative Right Wing rhetoric into account, that the GOP will win the female, Blacks, Hispanics, gays, poor, and non Christians, or even the youth vote?

Let me ask you this, when was the last time the GOP won the women vote? What about the Black, Hispanic, or youth vote? Really, answer this question for me. Do you honestly believe that the marriage ruining gays, the lazy non working drug addicted poor, and the un-American non-Christians are going to vote for the GOP?
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Old 02-07-2015, 01:47 AM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,216 posts, read 11,473,657 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucidkitty View Post
That's been said in many an election by the side who ends up losing. It's never a certain thing until the election is finished. I don't think they have great chances but I also am not completely counting them out either. A lot of the states Obama won are purple states. They can't be counted on to vote reliably Democratic in every election. So the idea that the electoral map is against them is overstated. I think in 15 years that will be more the case simply due to the fact that Texas by demographic shift will be a battleground. Without having one large state to rely on for electoral votes the Republicans will need to be far more moderate to win elections.
lets put this into perspective.

John Kerry lost every single swing state and had 251( now 246) electoral votes. Barack Obama did indeed win alot of swing stats, but he didnt squeak out a win, he had 232 electoral votes, 62 more than needed to win.

For any Democrat to win all they need is 24 electoral votes from the swing states
+

a combination of Virginia(13), Iowa(6), Florida(29), Indiana(11), Nevada(6), Colorado(9), Ohio(18), New Mexico(5),New Hampshire(4), and North Carolina (13)

If democrats can just win the small states on this list, NV(6)+IA(6)+NH(4)+NM(5)+ CO(9), then thats ball game folks.

its a lot easier to see the Democrats path to 270, than the Republicans. They would basically have to sweep the above list to get to 270.

with INdiana and North Carolina , they only won 206.

So with FL(29), OH(18), and VA(13), thats still only 266.

im not saying it isnt possible for them to win. Im saying it would take a major screw up.
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Old 02-07-2015, 01:55 AM
 
1,198 posts, read 957,428 times
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As a centrist I believe they have absolutely no chance at winning, but who knows what will happen between now and then. If they get a good candidate I will vote republican; however, with the current list of potentials, I probably won't vote. Either way, I don't believe they can win with a mediocre candidate for the reasons stated by the OP.
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Old 02-07-2015, 02:03 AM
 
2,206 posts, read 1,466,676 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
lets put this into perspective.

John Kerry lost every single swing state and had 251( now 246) electoral votes. Barack Obama did indeed win alot of swing stats, but he didnt squeak out a win, he had 232 electoral votes, 62 more than needed to win.

For any Democrat to win all they need is 24 electoral votes from the swing states
+

a combination of Virginia(13), Iowa(6), Florida(29), Indiana(11), Nevada(6), Colorado(9), Ohio(18), New Mexico(5),New Hampshire(4), and North Carolina (13)

If democrats can just win the small states on this list, NV(6)+IA(6)+NH(4)+NM(5)+ CO(9), then thats ball game folks.

its a lot easier to see the Democrats path to 270, than the Republicans. They would basically have to sweep the above list to get to 270.

with INdiana and North Carolina , they only won 206.

So with FL(29), OH(18), and VA(13), thats still only 266.

im not saying it isnt possible for them to win. Im saying it would take a major screw up.
+1

Exactly.. Obama could have lost Ohio, Florida, and a couple of more states and still won. When you look at the map, the state's history of voting, and the current make up of the state's government party affiliation, the GOP has to pull a rabbit out of a hat to win.

Republicans think they have a chance being that they took over the senate in 2014, but they picked up seats mostly in Red states while voter turnout was low. One would think that they would at least stop bring up abortion, immigration, gay marriage, the lazy poor, etc at least until after the election was over.
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Old 02-07-2015, 02:06 AM
 
Location: Lost in Texas
9,833 posts, read 5,828,701 times
Reputation: 3404
I have been watching politics since the first time I was old enough to vote in 1971. The one thing I can tell you that is a sure thing, is there is no such thing as a sure thing. Who would have thought that an inexperienced first term senator from Illinois could have possibly beat out Hillary Clinton? Nobody thought in the beginning that Ronald Reagan had a chance against Jimmy Carter. Nobody thought that Bill Clinton could possibly beat GHW Bush. There are no absolutes in the insanity of politics.
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