Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
"I agree with you. And, yes, I know which party has won which states each election for at least 3-4 decades. With that being said, there are many Democratic posters on the forum who allege that, entirely based on the 2008 and 2012 elections, states like VA, CO, IA, NH, etc. are "Blue Wall" states that the Republicans have no chance in. They think the election is completely unimportant because the winner is pre-determined with 100% certainty (even if Hillary chooses not to run)."
No, the election is not predetermined, and Hillary Clinton is a lesser politician than either Bill or Barack Obama. That said, the electorate is far more polarized than it was in, say, 1980. Given W. Bush's approval rating (25%) and the trajectory of the economy in 2008 (much worse than in 1980), John McCain should've been annihilated ala Jimmy Carter. Instead, he lost by fewer than 200 electoral votes. A significant number of voters call themselves "independents," but very few actually are. Here's a document from Pew Research that lays out the true state of the electorate: http://www.people-press.org/files/le...Party%20ID.pdf Basically, the actual partisan breakdown is 48% - 43% (D - R). Obviously, that doesn't give the GOP much room for error.
No, the election is not predetermined, and Hillary Clinton is a lesser politician than either Bill or Barack Obama. That said, the electorate is far more polarized than it was in, say, 1980. Given W. Bush's approval rating (25%) and the trajectory of the economy in 2008 (much worse than in 1980), John McCain should've been annihilated ala Jimmy Carter. Instead, he lost by fewer than 200 electoral votes. A significant number of voters call themselves "independents," but very few actually are. Here's a document from Pew Research that lays out the true state of the electorate: http://www.people-press.org/files/le...Party%20ID.pdf Basically, the actual partisan breakdown is 48% - 43% (D - R). Obviously, that doesn't give the GOP much room for error.
Democrats have an undeniable edge in interest-group politics. They have the 47%, the 16% of workers who are employed by govt, and the tooth fairy believers, both boomers and millenials, who are convinced that DC is going to give them a house, a car, a job, and other free stuff.
The GOP has the edge in ideas, and at least for the time being, is doing ok with that.
Yet having said that we have 31 GOP governors, a GOP US House and GOP US Senate, and 68 of 98 partisan state chambers."
Doesn't much matter. To take a single example, the Wisconsin exit poll from 2014 posed the question "Would Scott Walker make a good president?" The response, in an election he won by 5 points, was 55% - 42%, "No."
Quote:
"Democrats have an undeniable edge in interest-group politics."
Sorry, but elderly white people are an "interest group."
Quote:
"They have the 47%, the 16% of workers who are employed by govt, and the tooth fairy believers, both boomers and millenials, who are convinced that DC is going to give them a house, a car, a job, and other free stuff."
Yeah, I don't see any correlation between government employment and political philosophy: Federal Employees By State
According the the Washington Examiner, a conservative site, Cruz lost the Hispanic Vote in the 2012 Texas Senate Race by 20 points, 60-40. An Hispanic site had Romney carrying 29% of the Hispwnic vote in Texas vote, with Cruz carrying 35%. Either way, if you're trying to make the argument that Cruz will improve the GOP's performance among Hispanics nationally over McCain or Romney, that's one thing; if you're saying he can take the national Hispqnic vote outright, that's quite another.
So no stats on Hispanic voting patterns in previous elections in Texas or nationwide are valid because you think that millions of illegals are voting for Democrats?
True, but in the days leading up to the election, Fox News led their viewers to believe Romney would win easily. Dick Morris, Karl Rove, Michael Barone, Sean Hannity...all predicted a landslide victory for Romney. I know people who were stunned at Obama's re-election because their TV is tuned to Fox 24/7 and they were never exposed to what the polls were really saying in those final days of the 2012 campaign.
So no stats on Hispanic voting patterns in previous elections in Texas or nationwide are valid because you think that millions of illegals are voting for Democrats?
They just want to come here and do the job Americans don't want to do....
Doesn't much matter. To take a single example, the Wisconsin exit poll from 2014 posed the question "Would Scott Walker make a good president?" The response, in an election he won by 5 points, was 55% - 42%, "No."
That seems eyebrow-raising, but take a close look at the numbers. Of course those who voted for Burke are not going to think that Walker would make a good prez (but what's up with the 2% who said yes, yet didn't vote for him?). Anyway, among the 52.3% who voted for Walker, 40% answered that he would make a good prez, and 12% said no. In other words, among those who voted for him, he won that question by a 76-24 margin.
Quote:
Sorry, but elderly white people are an "interest group."
No need to apologize. You might think this, but even if true, it is not a big enough voting block to counter the 47%, and the 16% who work for gov't, along with interest groups such as welfare recipients (both corp and individual), and other recipients of gov't largess. Note that they might not always vote Dem, but just that it is in their self-interest to do so. The Democrats do have a huge advantage when it comes to interest-group politics.
Quote:
Yeah, I don't see any correlation between government employment and political philosophy: Federal Employees By State
What exactly is the point of posting that link? Gov't workers don't always vote Democratic, but it's probably on balance in their interest to do so. Democrats will grow their industry, and that will tend to mean promotions and raises for them.
Look at any public sector (government employee) union on this list of top political donors. They all donate 90% or better to Democrats. Top Organization Contributors | OpenSecrets
True, but in the days leading up to the election, Fox News led their viewers to believe Romney would win easily. Dick Morris, Karl Rove, Michael Barone, Sean Hannity...all predicted a landslide victory for Romney. I know people who were stunned at Obama's re-election because their TV is tuned to Fox 24/7 and they were never exposed to what the polls were really saying in those final days of the 2012 campaign.
"Anyway, among the 52.3% who voted for Walker, 40% answered that he would make a good prez, and 12% said no. In other words, among those who voted for him, he won that question by a 76-24 margin."
If Republicans support his presidential campaign by the same margin, he'll get trounced.
Quote:
"You might think this, but even if true, it is not a big enough voting block to counter the 47%, and the 16% who work for gov't, along with interest groups such as welfare recipients (both corp and individual), and other recipients of gov't largess."
Plenty of Republicans receive government largess. The elderly are the single biggest beneficiary, and also the most Republican-leaning age cohort.
Quote:
"What exactly is the point of posting that link? Gov't workers don't always vote Democratic, but it's probably on balance in their interest to do so."
Just that they don't always do so -- see Walker, Scott.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
