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Old 06-01-2015, 11:05 AM
 
Location: NJ
16,812 posts, read 11,745,167 times
Reputation: 10805

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Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
Wisconsin went Democrat for the last 7 Presidential contests. How can the GOP lose what it never had... Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes.

What does Marquette say and what's the margin of error?

Nevermind, I checked myself. They sampled 319 Republicans plus indies leaning Rep. (5.6% margin of error) and 391 Democrats and indies leaning Dem. (5.1% margin of error).
WI could not possibly vote for HRC!
No significant voting block could be that oblivious and uninformed to want her as president.
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Old 06-01-2015, 03:49 PM
 
Location: Midwest
30,981 posts, read 19,482,869 times
Reputation: 7713
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kracer View Post
WI could not possibly vote for HRC!
No significant voting block could be that oblivious and uninformed to want her as president.
WI voted for Walker so that proves WI voters are, in fact, oblivious and uniformed.
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Old 06-08-2015, 06:01 AM
 
Location: Wisconsin
7,215 posts, read 7,880,375 times
Reputation: 7740
$700,000 WEDC loan to aviation company unpaid : Wsj

Walker has literally wasted millions on WEDC loans/tax credits that have been a total bust (and of course the tax payers are on the hook for), but Republican media will continue pretending he's some great "fiscal conservative."

Here's some great news on how Wisconsin is "open for business": Wisconsin drops to last in ranking for business start-ups

I'm sure Republican media will keep talking about how "pro business" Governor Walker is, as well.
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Old 06-08-2015, 10:30 AM
 
Location: On a Long Island in NY
7,676 posts, read 8,455,502 times
Reputation: 7021
Quote:
Originally Posted by MaseMan View Post
$700,000 WEDC loan to aviation company unpaid : Wsj

Walker has literally wasted millions on WEDC loans/tax credits that have been a total bust (and of course the tax payers are on the hook for), but Republican media will continue pretending he's some great "fiscal conservative."

Here's some great news on how Wisconsin is "open for business": Wisconsin drops to last in ranking for business start-ups

I'm sure Republican media will keep talking about how "pro business" Governor Walker is, as well.
When New York under Cuomo is doing better than Wisconsin you know Scott Walker really f--ked up.

Though I must admit that I am surprised at how well New York scored considering the "Start Up NY" program was rated a failure by an internal audit.
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Old 06-23-2015, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Midwest
30,981 posts, read 19,482,869 times
Reputation: 7713
Scott Walker's disaster of a state budget is alienating legislators of his own party!

Quote:
Bucking GOP Gov. Scott Walker, a majority of Assembly Republicans told the likely presidential candidate Monday that they won't let their outstate districts take the whole hit to save southeastern Wisconsin from cuts to state road funding.
Quote:
A letter sent to Walker on Monday underlined how the stalemate in the state budget is continuing in Walker's absence as he travels to California for two days in support of his undeclared run for president.
Majority of Assembly Republicans sign letter bucking Scott Walker on roads

GOP's letter to Gov. Scott Walker
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Old 06-23-2015, 10:17 AM
 
Location: Type 0.7 Kardashev
10,577 posts, read 7,237,186 times
Reputation: 37457
Given a Scott Walker nomination (an unlikely eventuality) and a Republican win in the general, yes, it is quite possible that Walker could win the Presidency without carrying Wisconsin. While it is not impossible for a Republican to carry Wisconsin (though it is certainly unlikely - Wisconsin has actually become more blue compared to the national electorate since George W. Bush narrowly lost it twice), the Republican path the 270 votes in the Electoral College does not go through Wisconsin. In other words, a Republican nominee who won Wisconsin would already have rolled up the necessary EC votes to win the Presidency, and Wisconsin would just be gravy at that point.

The Republican path to the Presidency is to carry all the states that Mitt Romney carried, plus Florida and Ohio (doable, because although Obama carried them twice, he did so by margins smaller than his national victory) and Virginia (not easy, because VA is now slightly more blue than the nation as a whole - even harder if Clinton is the Democratic nominee, as she likely will be).

That would put the GOP nominee at 266 electoral college votes. He only needs to carry one more state. Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire - all are more likely to flip that Wisconsin. Arguably, New Mexico and/or Pennsylvania might also flip first.

Of course, one might claim Walker would have a home-state advantage, but this is a candidate that twice won just 52% from off-year Wisconsin electorates. During 2016, the same electorate that gave President Obama a 7% victory of Mitt Romney and Wisconsinite Paul Ryan, as well as the same electorate that gave unabashed liberal Tammy Baldwin a 6% victory over four-time Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson (who won his elections by margins a lot bigger than those of Scott Walker), will be casting votes, not the off-year electorate upon which Walker depends to carry Wisconsin.

Basically, by the time a Republican's strength was such that he was carrying Wisconsin, he'd already be around 300 votes in the Electoral College. So, yes, Walker can win without Wisconsin. But first he has to win the Republican nomination. Good luck with that!
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Old 06-23-2015, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Midwest
30,981 posts, read 19,482,869 times
Reputation: 7713
Walker is a one trick pony. All he can say is, "I won three elections in four years in a blue state."

He just cannot govern well.
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Old 06-24-2015, 01:47 AM
 
545 posts, read 1,143,141 times
Reputation: 824
I'm originally from Wisconsin. Moved away a few years ago shortly after Walker won the recall election. Was also a Milwaukee County resident, so have seen his work as County Executive there. IMO, the reason he has been so successful at winning elections is because he was in the right place at the right time. He won the County Executive race because of the tremendous backlash against the previous Democratic County Executive's pension spiking plan. IIRC, four County Board members were recalled over it and the County Exec ended up resigning before he was too. The scandal ended up costing the county almost a billion dollars. Pretty hard environment for a Democrat to win with that hanging over your party's head. Walker was re-elected to the position in an off year. The governor's race was in the wave Republican year of 2010. The recalls were largely seen as Democrats trying to re-litigate one issue (collective bargaining for public employees), so I wasn't surprised that Walker won again. Plus, rematching with Tom Barrett was a poor decision. He was a very weak candidate to begin with and hasn't really done much of anything in his 10 years as Mayor of Milwaukee. The most recent election was probably his best showing, but then he was matched up against another weak candidate in Mary Burke, a multi-millionaire who no one knew anything about.

All of that being said, I agree with much of what Unsettomati said above. I do think he has a better than average chance of winning the nomination though, simply because he's more of an every man than almost all of the other candidates. If he is the nominee, he could absolutely win without Wisconsin because Wisconsin isn't going to be the tipping point - it's going to be states like Ohio, Florida, and Colorado again. I'd bet that it'd be a very close race in Wisconsin though - much closer than what the polls currently indicate.
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Old 06-24-2015, 12:08 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley, CA
9,869 posts, read 6,564,339 times
Reputation: 6249
Quote:
Originally Posted by brian571 View Post
I'm originally from Wisconsin. Moved away a few years ago shortly after Walker won the recall election. Was also a Milwaukee County resident, so have seen his work as County Executive there. IMO, the reason he has been so successful at winning elections is because he was in the right place at the right time. He won the County Executive race because of the tremendous backlash against the previous Democratic County Executive's pension spiking plan. IIRC, four County Board members were recalled over it and the County Exec ended up resigning before he was too. The scandal ended up costing the county almost a billion dollars. Pretty hard environment for a Democrat to win with that hanging over your party's head. Walker was re-elected to the position in an off year. The governor's race was in the wave Republican year of 2010. The recalls were largely seen as Democrats trying to re-litigate one issue (collective bargaining for public employees), so I wasn't surprised that Walker won again. Plus, rematching with Tom Barrett was a poor decision. He was a very weak candidate to begin with and hasn't really done much of anything in his 10 years as Mayor of Milwaukee. The most recent election was probably his best showing, but then he was matched up against another weak candidate in Mary Burke, a multi-millionaire who no one knew anything about.

All of that being said, I agree with much of what Unsettomati said above. I do think he has a better than average chance of winning the nomination though, simply because he's more of an every man than almost all of the other candidates. If he is the nominee, he could absolutely win without Wisconsin because Wisconsin isn't going to be the tipping point - it's going to be states like Ohio, Florida, and Colorado again. I'd bet that it'd be a very close race in Wisconsin though - much closer than what the polls currently indicate.
If Walker manages to win the nomination, he will have to win in the general election without his home state because of the budget and legislative controversies (e.g. hacking the UW budget, eliminating tenure for faculty) going on, where even the Republican legislators are balking at his budget proposals. State popularity rating has dropped quite a bit. There are many WI folks who perceive that Walker is pursuing wedge issue policies (to push for the nomination) at the expense of the well-being of their state as a whole.

Walker has won by exploiting divisions - turning out his base - rather than being a uniter. In a presidential election year, with higher turnout, he will have more opposition, and probably from more formidable opponents than Burke or Barrett. Heck, even Paul Ryan couldn't carry WI in 2012.

Last edited by silverkris; 06-24-2015 at 01:08 PM..
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Old 06-25-2015, 10:47 AM
 
Location: Midwest
30,981 posts, read 19,482,869 times
Reputation: 7713
This is what Walker has accomplished in Wisconsin:

-Wisconsin ranked 42nd for business. We're 49 out of 50 for long-term job growth and we're dead last — 50th — in short-term job growth. http://www.uschamberfoundation.org/s...ion/ES2013.pdf

-According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, we're 44th in job growth and 45th in wage growth.

-WI had the sharpest decline of any state in the middle class. Report: Wisconsin worst in nation on shrinking middle class : Ct

-Wisconsin is in the top 10 for people leaving the state.Why are people leaving Wisconsin? State ranked in top 10 for out-migration : Ct
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