Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 03-13-2015, 02:46 AM
 
Location: MPLS
752 posts, read 564,659 times
Reputation: 461

Advertisements

This is an addendum to another thread ('Uh oh... Walker losing support among WI independents') that discusses a recent Wisconsin poll. Insofar as I can tell, a significant measure of Scott Walker's appeal as a presidential candidate stems from his trifecta of victories in a 'blue' state. There's no disputing that Walker enjoys a strong base of support in Wisconsin, but polls of the hypothetical Walker-Clinton match-up ought to give his advocates pause. While the sample size is admittedly small (two PPP polls, one Marquette poll), the results are remarkably consistent:

Click image for larger version

Name:	WI.gif
Views:	203
Size:	72.3 KB
ID:	146193

The striking thing isn't that Clinton is leading Walker in Wisconsin, it's that she's comfortably above 50% and the pool of undecided voters is almost empty (5-6%). For the sake of comparison, I've also included results from the Bush-, Carson-, and Cruz-Clinton match-ups. I have no doubt that Walker would perform better against Clinton than Carson or Cruz, either of whom, were he the nominee, would likely inspire a significant chuck of undecideds (along with some Republicans) to embrace Hillary Clinton. Carson and Cruz arguably benefit from low name-recognition. Nonetheless, both potential candidates would start off with a respectable reservoir of persuadable voters (12-13%). 20 months from an election, that's pretty typical -- surveys of Minnesota, its 2012 results mirroring Wisconsin's, and Ohio, another Midwestern battleground, illustrate the same pattern:

Click image for larger version

Name:	MN; OH.gif
Views:	217
Size:	47.0 KB
ID:	146194

The Clinton-Kasich match-up is particularly salient in that it pits Mrs. Clinton against an incumbent governor who recently won reelection (by a 30% margin, no less). Not surprisingly, the notional contest is currently a dead-heat, with 13% of registered voters unable to decide between the two. The same poll (Quinnipiac) puts Governor Kasich's approval rating at 43% -- identical to Governor Walker's rating in the latest Wisconsin survey. There is, however, a substantial difference: whereas 29% view Kasich unfavorably and 27% don't have a firm opinion of him, 52% of Wisconsin voters disapprove of Walker and only 4% reserve judgement. Which bolsters the contention that Walker's governorship has so polarized Wisconsin that only a trifling few remain agnostic on the question of a Walker presidency -- a state of affairs that, if the polling is to be believed, has held since at least October 2013. 6% undecided in a poll taken three years prior to an election is fairly remarkable -- the kind of thing you see when you ask the audience of Duck Dynasty who makes better trucks, Chevy or Ford? (Ford, typically).

To summarize, the point is that Scott Walker appears to be trailing Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin, and in order for him to close the gap, he'll have to persuade not only undecided voters, of whom few remain, but also a significant share of the electorate that purportedly decided on Clinton more than a year ago. Wooing the uninitiated isn't enough; Walker has to convert voters who are familiar with his record but nonetheless intend to support his (likely) opponent. Assuming that's a bridge too far (and I think it is), candidate Walker has to win Florida. Of course, if Florida's again the linchpin, might I suggest Jeb Bush?

Last edited by drishmael; 03-13-2015 at 03:07 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 03-13-2015, 03:55 AM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,782 posts, read 17,321,941 times
Reputation: 7990
Someone recently pointed out that the two leading contenders in March 2007 were Hillary Clinton and Rudy G. Polls at this point are exercises in who has name recognition. People don't want to feel stupid, so they tell the pollster that they favor whichever name they've heard of.

One would think that Walker would not have a name recognition deficit in Wisconsin, but then I know lots of people in my state who would not be able to name our current gov if asked.

All that said, I can't think of any cases where a candidate lost his home state and won the election. Al Gore lost TN in 2000 and did win the popular vote, but lost the electoral vote. Even Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale won their home states in 80 and 84. Reagan won California both times, which seems inconceivable now.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2015, 08:55 AM
 
Location: Midwest
38,496 posts, read 25,753,611 times
Reputation: 10789
Walker is losing support from WI citizens! One reason for this is probably because Walker is more focused on presidential campaigns instead of fulfilling his governor responsibilities to his state.

Quote:
Walker's job performance rating in Wisconsin has dropped to its lowest point since the 2011 protests, according to the latest Wisconsin poll from Public Policy Polling.
Scott Walker's approval rating drops in Wisconsin, poll finds - TwinCities.com
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2015, 04:18 PM
 
Location: MPLS
752 posts, read 564,659 times
Reputation: 461
Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz View Post
"Someone recently pointed out that the two leading contenders in March 2007 were Hillary Clinton and Rudy G. Polls at this point are exercises in who has name recognition. People don't want to feel stupid, so they tell the pollster that they favor whichever name they've heard of."
Right, but what did the Clinton-Giuliani contest look like in 2007? Was either candidate above 50%? Can you find me a single poll with fewer than 10% undecided, let alone 5%?

Quote:
"One would think that Walker would not have a name recognition deficit in Wisconsin, but then I know lots of people in my state who would not be able to name our current gov if asked."
Sure, but Walker isn't your typical governor -- his name-recognition is near universal, and everyone in Wisconsin has seemingly formed an opinion of him. In fact, in the most recent poll, more people were on-the-fence with respect to Hillary Clinton. No, the issue, if the polls are to be believed (and mind you, none of the other candidates exhibits a similar pattern), is that Walker is an incredibly polarizing figure and his detractors outnumber his supporters (among registered voters in Wisconsin, at least).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2015, 05:36 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,782 posts, read 17,321,941 times
Reputation: 7990
Quote:
Originally Posted by drishmael View Post
Right, but what did the Clinton-Giuliani contest look like in 2007? Was either candidate above 50%? Can you find me a single poll with fewer than 10% undecided, let alone 5%?



Sure, but Walker isn't your typical governor -- his name-recognition is near universal, and everyone in Wisconsin has seemingly formed an opinion of him. In fact, in the most recent poll, more people were on-the-fence with respect to Hillary Clinton. No, the issue, if the polls are to be believed (and mind you, none of the other candidates exhibits a similar pattern), is that Walker is an incredibly polarizing figure and his detractors outnumber his supporters (among registered voters in Wisconsin, at least).
Well we are an incredibly polarized nation. Kind of tough to argue that a guy who won three statewide elections in 4 years couldn't possibly win another in 2016.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2015, 05:39 PM
 
Location: Florida
23,795 posts, read 13,211,997 times
Reputation: 19952
The conventional wisdom is that if a candidate cannot even carry his/her home state, why would anyone else want them? Romney could not carry Michigan or Massachusetts (whatever his home state was supposed to be), Ryan couldn't carry Wisconsin, Gore couldn't carry Tennessee. The writing is on the wall.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2015, 06:06 PM
 
Location: MPLS
752 posts, read 564,659 times
Reputation: 461
Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz View Post
"Well we are an incredibly polarized nation. Kind of tough to argue that a guy who won three statewide elections in 4 years couldn't possibly win another in 2016."
It's certainly possible, it just isn't looking real good at the moment. Aside from the issue of midterm vs. presidential year (remember, Obama also won in the midst of Walker's victories), there seems to be a significant subset of Wisconsin voters who like Walker as a governor but who don't think he's presidential material. I've mentioned it before, but one of the questions from the 2014 Wisconsin exit poll was:

Do you think Scott Walker would make a good president?

YES...42%
NO....55%

Paul Ryan fared better in the same question (46% - 49% {Y - N}), and if you check the only two (Wisconsin) polls that pitted both Ryan and Walker against Clinton, the former polled a couple points higher in each.

Last edited by drishmael; 03-13-2015 at 06:16 PM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2015, 08:33 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,782 posts, read 17,321,941 times
Reputation: 7990
OK then...all fair points. Still about 1.75 years to go.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2015, 09:24 PM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
78,866 posts, read 46,504,056 times
Reputation: 18520
Quote:
Originally Posted by Enigma777 View Post
The conventional wisdom is that if a candidate cannot even carry his/her home state, why would anyone else want them? Romney could not carry Michigan or Massachusetts (whatever his home state was supposed to be), Ryan couldn't carry Wisconsin, Gore couldn't carry Tennessee. The writing is on the wall.

Ted will carry Texas, Rand will carry Kentucky and Jeb would surly carry Florida.
Ted is going to be doing the discovery rounds, to see just what kind of support he gets.
He and Rand will be going head to head in the New Hampshire deal. Didn't Jeb have to bus in support from out of state, in the Iowa deal?(resembling Mitt last time)
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2015, 10:10 PM
 
Location: MPLS
752 posts, read 564,659 times
Reputation: 461
Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz View Post
"OK then...all fair points. Still about 1.75 years to go."
Absolutely. Frankly, I wouldn't have even posted the thread if the polling weren't so unusual -- I know better than to try to predict an election outcome 20 months out. And for the record, I think that John Kasich and Jeb Bush would stand a good chance of carrying Ohio and Florida, respectively (as the polling confirms). But the hypothetical Walker-Clinton match-up in Wisconsin looks more like October 2016 than March 2015 (with Walker trailing by a margin comparable to the 2012 result), so I think some skepticism of Walker's candidacy is merited, especially if it's assumed he could secure his homestate.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
Similar Threads

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:58 AM.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top