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Old 04-12-2015, 09:19 PM
 
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The demographics of the cities and states with the most electoral votes just doesn't add up for it to happen. Not any time soon anyways. Lol

 
Old 04-12-2015, 09:28 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh
7,542 posts, read 8,398,584 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waviking24 View Post
The demographics of the cities and states with the most electoral votes just doesn't add up for it to happen. Not any time soon anyways. Lol
The Republicans took the governorships in the ultraliberal states of Massachusetts and Maryland just last fall. The Democrats have had success in conservative states as well in recent years.


Assuming that any state is in the bag for any political party in an election so far down the line is a mistake.


If what you said is true, why should either side bother with the expense of campaign ads and trips, they could debate by correspondence and publish it in the newspaper if they insisted on the exercise.
 
Old 04-12-2015, 09:32 PM
 
1,661 posts, read 1,985,707 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Like_Spam View Post
The Republicans took the governorships in the ultraliberal states of Massachusetts and Maryland just last fall. The Democrats have had success in conservative states as well in recent years.


Assuming that any state is in the bag for any political party in an election so far down the line is a mistake.


If what you said is true, why should either side bother with the expense of campaign ads and trips, they could debate by correspondence and publish it in the newspaper if they insisted on the exercise.
This is a great question. A lot of money could be saved.
 
Old 04-12-2015, 09:33 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,023,298 times
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39 states plus DC have gone the same way 7 straight times. The BW plus Va and NM, which have shifted blue, start Dems off within one single swing state of 270. Simply put, GOP to eek out 270 must run the table on 10 swing states..an incredible long shot.

Demographic changes have changed electoral politics, in the sole national race we vote in.

BTW, Both parties run largely to avoid undertickets losing bigger for them. Undertickets, as it is, win more often close races, when dragged up by POTUS winner.
 
Old 04-12-2015, 09:38 PM
 
32,300 posts, read 26,162,343 times
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so in other words you all have already given the 2016 presidential election to the democrat without knowing who it is, and who the republican nominee is, and what the mood of the public will be in 2016 around election time. good job people, we can now eliminate the 2016 general election for president and just concentrate on the rest of the elections.
 
Old 04-12-2015, 09:41 PM
 
Location: NJ
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We've become a remarkably predictable nation, with 40 of 51 states (and DC) with electoral votes being consistent 7 straight times.

This is no different than realizing Clay Kershaw will win a disproportionate % of Cy Young awards, or UConn's women basketball will win a disproportionate % of national titles.
 
Old 04-12-2015, 09:42 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
12,300 posts, read 7,935,198 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
39 states plus DC have gone the same way 7 straight times. The BW plus Va and NM, which have shifted blue, start Dems off within one single swing state of 270. Simply put, GOP to eek out 270 must run the table on 10 swing states..an incredible long shot.

Demographic changes have changed electoral politics, in the sole national race we vote in.

BTW, Both parties run largely to avoid undertickets losing bigger for them. Undertickets, as it is, win more often close races, when dragged up by POTUS winner.
You should read up on Nate's recent work on the subject.
 
Old 04-12-2015, 09:48 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,023,298 times
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I did, and it is interesting, but he is hardly viewing the likelihood of change as huge (he is viewing it as somewhat possible).. Add in, the BW states have widened their margins in recent years, and we know HC will win a higher % of women than Obama did, and that makes cracking any BW state very difficult. (Notice: I am not discounting a net reduction in BW margins, but since all but Maine are winner take all states, winning by 3% or 9% gets the same precious electoral votes).

Now if the GOP took moderate positions to win over single women and Latinos that could change things.
 
Old 04-12-2015, 09:51 PM
 
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Usually whoever wins Ohio and Florida won the presidency in the last 5 elections.

Obama won both in 2012 by a margin of less than 1% in Florida and less than 3% in Ohio and he was the incumbent President with all the advantages of money and no primary challenge.

To say Democrats have the WH a lock for 2016 with Hillary is clueless...........whoever wins Ohio and Florida is going to be our next president.
 
Old 04-12-2015, 09:51 PM
 
1,661 posts, read 1,985,707 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shooting4life View Post
You should read up on Nate's recent work on the subject.
Nah, he's wrong. At this point anyways.
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