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Old 04-23-2015, 03:46 PM
 
698 posts, read 583,445 times
Reputation: 1899

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unsettomati View Post
I could see Rubio beating Clinton. But then, I could also see Clinton beating Rubio.

He does seem to be a politician with tremendous long-term upside. But for 2016? Not so much.

First, Iowa. How does he win there? Cruz and whatever combination of Huckabee and Santorum run are going to gobble up the social conservative vote there. Cruz and Paul will dominate the Tea Party Hawkeye caucusers - Rubio will grab a few of them, but he squandered most of the good will he'd established while surfing the Tea Party wave to office in 2010 when he came out in 2013 in support of granting legal status to undocumented immigrants (this was definitely the right thing to do, but he suffered for it - which is why he's flip-flopped back on the issue). Blue collar voters? The Governor next door in Wisconsin will dominate them. And the establishment base of the Iowa GOP? They belong to Jeb Bush.

Second, New Hampshire. The is Bush's to lose, period. It's like the state was tailor-made for a Jeb Bush candidacy. And if Iowa, as it so often does, serves up a Huckabee or Santorum or Cruz as caucus winner, the terrified GOP base will send Bush to a rousing victory in the Granite State. But Bush isn't the only problem - Paul's pseudo-libertarianism will carve out a nice chunk of the New Hampshire electorate, and Walker's blue collar-ism will probably do all right there - if he survives Iowa. Hell, even whatever silliness of a campaign Pataki puts together will probably take high single digits there.

Where's the path through Iowa and New Hampshire for Rubio? There just isn't one. There's no political oxygen for him in that room.

And here's a list of every Republican who has won the Presidential nomination, since the nomination process began being determined by the primary & caucus system in the 1970s, without winning either the Iowa Caucuses or the New Hampshire Primary:

[pretty short list, huh?]

Even if we move onto the next state in the primary process, South Carolina, that race will be between whichever of the social conservatives is still in the race at that point and the establishment choice of Bush (the likely frontrunner by then). After that, onto Florida. Of course, by then it will be too late - and anyway, unfortunately for Rubio, Jeb Bush is in the race and he will coast in Florida.

Besides, the establishment chooses the nominee, and the establishment always goes, not surprisingly, with the established candidate, not someone who is new on the scene. And that's Bush, not Rubio.

Oh, a Rubio nomination is a possibility - it's just a long one. He's got some great political talents and a compelling story. They're just not a particularly good fit in the primaries this time around.

I do think that a Rubio-Kasich ticket, in terms of electability, is probably the pinnacle of current possibilities for the GOP. However, Bush-Kasich is far more likely. Since both Bush and Rubio are Floridians, a Bush-Rubio ticket is effectively precluded, since Florida electors would be prevented by the Constitution from voting for both of them (and there's no real possible way to skirt that, a la the Cheney Texas-to-Wyoming maneuver in 2000).

All of that said, I have to say I admire that Rubio is not clinging to his Senate seat, the way some politicians do (Paul this time around, or Biden in 2008). He's forging ahead and taking his shot. If somehow he gets the nomination, it all works out. If not, and someone other than Bush is the nominee, he's an obvious top-tier contender for the second slot on the GOP ticket. And if none of that happens? Well, it just so happens that in 2018 the Republican Governor of Florida, Rick Scott is term-limited out. And what better way to burnish Rubio's political resume for a future Presidential bid that a term or two in the statehouse? And that's what I think is more likely - say, in 2024, Governor Rubio is the GOP nominee.

See, that's the thing about Rubio - he's only 43 years old. His window of opportunity for winning the Presidency will be open for a couple of decades after 2016. I won't be voting for him should he happen to be the nominee, but of all the Republicans who might plausibly be President, he's probably the one I'd rather see in the Oval Office ahead of all the rest. I'll be watching his run with interest.
Great post! I think Rubio is in the race only to get a VP spot from Bush when he becomes the nominee. With his moves to the right and his flip flop on immigration, he makes Jeb look like the only sane Republican running right now. We all know that a far right social conservative is going to win Iowa, a couple others won't make it past that state. Rubio is playing good soldier for Bush, he will tack right take the hits and when the time is right be named as Bush's choice for VP to get some Latino voters back after rest of the GOP field pisses them off during the primary season.

 
Old 04-23-2015, 04:34 PM
 
Location: Type 0.73 Kardashev
11,110 posts, read 9,729,165 times
Reputation: 40155
Quote:
Originally Posted by newtoks View Post
Great post! I think Rubio is in the race only to get a VP spot from Bush when he becomes the nominee. With his moves to the right and his flip flop on immigration, he makes Jeb look like the only sane Republican running right now. We all know that a far right social conservative is going to win Iowa, a couple others won't make it past that state. Rubio is playing good soldier for Bush, he will tack right take the hits and when the time is right be named as Bush's choice for VP to get some Latino voters back after rest of the GOP field pisses them off during the primary season.
Rubio can't, for all practical purposes, be Bush's running mate. I pointed this out in my previous post.

The Constitution requires that when a member of the Electoral College votes, no more than one of the Elector's two votes (they each cast one vote for President and one vote for Vice President) can be for someone who is an inhabitant of the same state as the Elector.

That means that if Bush-Rubio carried Florida, each of Florida's Electors could vote for Bush for President or Rubio for Vice President, but they could not vote for both. So what happens if Bush-Rubio were to win, say, all the states that have voted Republican since 2000, plus IN, NC, FL, OH, VA and IA (I use this because it's a very plausible Republican path to the necessary 270+ votes)? That comes to 276 Electoral College votes. All or most of Florida Electors then have to vote for Bush, leaving Rubio with something like 253 or so Electoral College votes for Vice President.

Now, the Constitution requires that a candidate get 270 Electoral College votes to win the Vice Presidency (or the Presidency, but we're talking about Rubio, not Bush, here). Further, the Constitution specifies that if no candidate gets 270+ Electoral College votes for Vice President, then the Senate will choose the next Vice President in an up-and-down vote - and they only get to choose from among the top two recipients of Electoral College votes. So, the Senate would be voting to choose either Rubio or Clinton's running mate. Maybe you think that's fine - after all, the Republicans control the Senate, right? And they'll all vote for Rubio, right? Yes, the Republicans control the Senate - now.

But here's the kicker - new Congresses are sworn in on January 3rd (per Amendment XX) and Electoral College votes are by law officially counted in a joint session of Congress on January 6th. So, the current Senate isn't the one that would select the next Vice President - it would be the Senate elected in November 2016. And the 2016 Senate landscape looks abyssmal for the GOP. So, there's a good chance that the Senate that gets sworn in in 2017 will be a Democratic Senate.

Do you think Jeb Bush wants to risk being stuck with a Democratic Vice President? Me neither. So there's no chance Bush picks Rubio.
 
Old 04-23-2015, 04:39 PM
 
Location: Phoenix
29,758 posts, read 18,623,807 times
Reputation: 25758
Well I think Rubio will be on the ticket....whether as the Candidate of VP candidate remains to be seen.
 
Old 04-23-2015, 05:36 PM
 
Location: Lebanon, OH
7,045 posts, read 8,859,226 times
Reputation: 14690
Quote:
Originally Posted by carlbenator View Post
I'm pushing for Cruz.

Why?
I want the IRS GONE

I want Obamacare GONE

won't happen with Rubio
Quote:
Originally Posted by katzpaw View Post
Rubio is the most RINO.
This. Time for the GOP to wake up and smell the coffee.

Cruz was described as being "off the charts brilliant" by one of his Harvard professors.

Cruz is a Tea Party conservative and a Southern Baptist.

We already have a RINO as house speaker and senate majority leader, how has that been working out?

What good does it do to hold a majority in both houses if Obama gets Loretta Lynch confirmed and we can't stop the Iranian nuclear program?
 
Old 04-23-2015, 05:41 PM
 
Location: Gone
25,231 posts, read 16,849,776 times
Reputation: 5932
Quote:
Originally Posted by woxyroxme View Post
This. Time for the GOP to wake up and smell the coffee.

Cruz was described as being "off the charts brilliant" by one of his Harvard professors.

Cruz is a Tea Party conservative and a Southern Baptist.

We already have a RINO as house speaker and senate majority leader, how has that been working out?

What good does it do to hold a majority in both houses if Obama gets Loretta Lynch confirmed and we can't stop the Iranian nuclear program?
I have yet to see any sign of his "brilliance", is Green Eggs and Ham required reading at Harvard?

That is actually Two strikes against him with most Americans, or don't ya know that?

The Repubs own Both Houses of Congress and still cannot get things done and putting a loud mouth TP'er in the Oval office is going to fix everything? ROTFLMAO!

Obviously not all Repubs are willing to get with your program, Good.
 
Old 04-24-2015, 01:17 PM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
78,866 posts, read 46,327,178 times
Reputation: 18520
I'd like to see Rubio argue his stance with Ted Cruz, on Common Core, that he has taken from Jeb... His stance on allowing tourist here to work, take jobs, drop babies left & right, all while sucking the welfare system dry... and why he has not fought very hard to eliminate Obamacare.

He sure talked big, but when the time came for him to be a patriot for liberty and freedom, instead of government control, more power and a bigger size, he caved.
 
Old 04-24-2015, 02:09 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
37,733 posts, read 40,776,995 times
Reputation: 61948
Fox News is already spinning that he's in first place (aren't they all the week they announce?) but statistically he's tied for first with Paul and Walker because their latest poll has a 3% plus or minus margin of error.
 
Old 04-24-2015, 02:11 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
38,952 posts, read 50,866,357 times
Reputation: 28133
Forget Rubio. It's going to be Bush. Bush, Bush, Bush. 1-2-3
 
Old 04-24-2015, 02:17 PM
 
Location: Fort Worth Texas
12,481 posts, read 10,180,804 times
Reputation: 2535
Cruz , Paul, Rubio, Carson, Walker , will be splitting up the conservative vote until some of the drop out none can catch fire. Christie and Bush will split the Moderate vote . I think Christie will drop out early.
 
Old 04-24-2015, 03:51 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,772 posts, read 104,112,011 times
Reputation: 49243
Quote:
Originally Posted by newtoks View Post
Great post! I think Rubio is in the race only to get a VP spot from Bush when he becomes the nominee. With his moves to the right and his flip flop on immigration, he makes Jeb look like the only sane Republican running right now. We all know that a far right social conservative is going to win Iowa, a couple others won't make it past that state. Rubio is playing good soldier for Bush, he will tack right take the hits and when the time is right be named as Bush's choice for VP to get some Latino voters back after rest of the GOP field pisses them off during the primary season.
Rubio will not be the VP candidate if Bush gets the nomination, for many reasons. Plus Bush will get his share of latino votes period, have you forgotten his wife in Mexican and he speaks fluent spanish?
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