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Old 04-25-2015, 08:07 AM
 
8,069 posts, read 4,401,631 times
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Thought provoking article from 538's Harry Enten, not only about Rubio, but candidates in general. Disagree on the candidate, but the premise of the article is difficult to deny. Here are some snippets from the article.

Quote:
In a race so tight, the most important thing to pay attention to continues to be the underlying fundamentals of the race: Is the candidate liked? Is she building a campaign infrastructure? Does she hold positions amenable to voters? And so on. Those look good for Rubio.
Quote:
What makes Rubio strong isnít his polling surge, but that he is well-liked across the party apparatus. He pulls in conservatives with his voting record and moderates with his impressive 2010 Senate victory in Florida, a crucial battleground state.

This is all evident in non-horse-race polling. Rubioís net favorability rating among Republicans is near the top of the field. The gap between Republicans who could see themselves voting for Rubio and those who couldnít is among the fieldís best, according to an average of CBS News surveys conducted this year:
The early top three Republican "net favorability" candidates in this article; Bush, Walker and Rubio.

Marco Rubio Is A Strong Candidate — Despite His Polling Surge | FiveThirtyEight
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Old 04-25-2015, 08:15 AM
 
10,694 posts, read 6,049,888 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by earthlyfather View Post
Thought provoking article from 538's Harry Enten, not only about Rubio, but candidates in general. Disagree on the candidate, but the premise of the article is difficult to deny. Here are some snippets from the article.

The early top three Republican "net favorability" candidates in this article; Bush, Walker and Rubio.

Marco Rubio Is A Strong Candidate — Despite His Polling Surge | FiveThirtyEight
I don't disagree with this. Listening to Rubio talk it's obvious he isn't crazy, and that's a big plus in a GOP field filled with crazies. I do think if he gets any traction he may be a credible candidate. But he has to get past the far right, who are not prepared to forgive him for daring to attempt an immigration reform policy. That may be what keeps him from being a contender.
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Old 04-25-2015, 08:18 AM
 
3,624 posts, read 3,081,964 times
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he'll have to flip flop again on immigration to win.

he'll need the hispanic vote as the white vote continues to decrease and the minority vote only continues to increase. plus hillary will get the largest female vote in history.

im still sticking with my bet on cruz to win the gop nod though.
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Old 04-25-2015, 11:50 AM
 
Location: Old Hippie Heaven
18,057 posts, read 8,141,377 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gtc08 View Post
he'll have to flip flop again on immigration to win.

he'll need the hispanic vote as the white vote continues to decrease and the minority vote only continues to increase. plus hillary will get the largest female vote in history.

im still sticking with my bet on cruz to win the gop nod though.
I think it's Bush. Because the really big money will be attracted to him.
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Old 04-25-2015, 04:49 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,794 posts, read 14,233,084 times
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Bush is going to need the conservative options to-self implode as happened for McCain and Romney. I don't think that that will happen this time around with Cruz, Walker, Rubio, Paul. Perhaps one or two will self-implode, but it is unlikely that all four will.

Marco Rubio is a strong candidate just based on his ability to communicate. We hear story after story about Rubio leaving crowds in tears or in standing O's due to his ability to communicate. He's up there with Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, and possibly could even surpass both.
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Old 04-25-2015, 04:51 PM
 
Location: Johnson Creek,WI
260 posts, read 169,094 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HeyJude514 View Post
I don't disagree with this. Listening to Rubio talk it's obvious he isn't crazy, and that's a big plus in a GOP field filled with crazies. I do think if he gets any traction he may be a credible candidate. But he has to get past the far right, who are not prepared to forgive him for daring to attempt an immigration reform policy. That may be what keeps him from being a contender.
As opposed to Hillary,who tried to channel Eleanor Roosevelt in the white house.
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Old 04-25-2015, 04:54 PM
 
Location: Johnson Creek,WI
260 posts, read 169,094 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz View Post
Bush is going to need the conservative options to-self implode as happened for McCain and Romney. I don't think that that will happen this time around with Cruz, Walker, Rubio, Paul. Perhaps one or two will self-implode, but it is unlikely that all four will.

Marco Rubio is a strong candidate just based on his ability to communicate. We hear story after story about Rubio leaving crowds in tears or in standing O's due to his ability to communicate. He's up there with Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, and possibly could even surpass both.
Jeb has no base of support. Nobody likes him or wants to vote for him.
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Old 04-25-2015, 05:08 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
29,296 posts, read 39,643,592 times
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Rubio is after the same money as Bush. He won't get it. The Republican primary will be more entertaining than the Demcrat one, but in the end the outcome is just about as predictable.
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Old 04-25-2015, 05:25 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,794 posts, read 14,233,084 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Rubio is after the same money as Bush. He won't get it. The Republican primary will be more entertaining than the Demcrat one, but in the end the outcome is just about as predictable.
Money is important, but is not by any means a trump card in politics.

What Money Can
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Old 04-25-2015, 06:59 PM
 
8,069 posts, read 4,401,631 times
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There is some really big money people, who are not necessarily Republican establishment, still on the conservative sidelines. Should they decide to throw in with Rubio, and he figures out how to communicate the retrenchment in his immigration stance, then he definitely can be in the thick of things.

We ought to all know not to underestimate charisma by now. Rubio has that 'it' quality about him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Rubio is after the same money as Bush. He won't get it. The Republican primary will be more entertaining than the Demcrat one, but in the end the outcome is just about as predictable.
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