What are the chances a Republican will win the Presidency in 2016?

[LexusNexus]

Virtually no chance. Anyone who thinks otherwise, is deluding themselves.

[Packard fan]

Originally Posted by cachibatches

If the economy takes a downturn, 100%. If Greece and China cause a worldwide recession, the next president will be Republican. Hillary can't run from Obama and Obama can't run from the economy.

If things stay exactly as they are now, 35-40%. The dems have their last celebrity candidate in Hillary. Since their party has been decimated for a generation, this will be their last ride.

If things improve, 10%. Hillary's star power and the electoral college advantage will carry them.

That's what got Bill elected in 1992 over Bush senior: "it's the economy, stupid" or something like that.

[mkpunk]

Originally Posted by Unsettomati

Bush and Perot, politically aligned? Oh, please...

Look, I know that conservatives are so unable to contemplate the notion that the electorate preferred Clinton over Bush that they invent this fantasy about Perot sucking away all of Bush's votes. Unfortunately, there's not only no evidence that this happened, it isn't even logical because Perot's positions coincided more with Clinton's that with those of Bush.

Perot was pro-choice.
Perot was strongly pro-gun control.
Perot advocated a 50-cent gasoline tax hike.
Perot was surprisingly pro-gay rights for the early 1990s.
Perot advocated raising the wages of teachers.
Perot advocated increasing foreign aid.
Perot oppose school vouchers.
Perot supported national healthcare (Medicaid expansion to cover every American).
Perot was anti-free trade.

Is it any surprise that Perot endorsed Democrats over Republicans? (like Richards over Bush in the 1994 Texas gubernatorial race?)

Is it any surprise that no exit polls showed a preference from Perot voters for Bush over Clinton?

Is it any surprise that in 1996, when Perot's share of the vote shrank from 19% to 8%, that most of that 11% of the electorate that went back to one of the main two parties when to Clinton? (who, by the way, got more votes that year than Dole and Perot combined)

Unfortunately for this much-clung-to myth, there's just not a shred of evidence to support it and abundant evidence that shows that it's nonsense.

These are true and Perot DID take evenly from the two parties. The issue is where the votes were lost. Say for Democrats, if it was lost in solid blue states, you wouldn't see the electoral votes changed. However if the Republican voters that voted Perot were in battleground states, it would have been what Nader was to Gore in some battleground states, a vote sucker.

[GHOSTRIDER AZ]

The Obamas bad Policy has has barely grown the GNP and Clintons affairs from White Water to current. a GOP pick would sing volumes over Clinton.