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Old 07-17-2015, 09:22 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,078 posts, read 51,231,444 times
Reputation: 28324

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Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb View Post
Great quote. I find Trump highly entertaining. I rarely missed an episode of Celebrity Apprentice. Sooner rather than later though, Trump's wild claims that he'll be the greatest of all times in all categories will grow tedious. Yeah, yeah Donald ... you're going to beat up drug dealers, build a Mexico-funded wall at the border, negotiate a deal with Iran that's 100 times better than the current one, get everyone who wants one a job, a job with a great paying wage and even win the Latino vote to boot? Sure you are.

I'm a Democrat, and I pretty much despise everything Walker stands for. I'd like to see stronger unions and higher wages. I also find his I-love-Reagan posturing old and tired, but the more I hear about him the more I think he's the one to watch. He's a disciplined career politician who is probably pretty palatable to the establishment types who currently have their eyes on Bush. If Walker can win in the early states, I think they'll come over to his side fairly easily. I can't say the same for any of the other conservative candidates.
Clinton's certain nomination makes 2016 the "Year of the Woman" politically. How women vote will be bigger than ever, Walker is a political misogynist, or so the Democrats will say over and over. That aside, I don't expect Walker to win. He's a freshman candidate and does not have the talent on his side that Bush does. It's the handlers and the behind the scenes operatives who win primary elections. Walker is 2020 or 2024.
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Old 07-17-2015, 09:24 AM
 
11,988 posts, read 5,294,358 times
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Theoretically, I would say Rubio. Jeb might bill himself as JEB! but he's still a Bush and Dubya killed the brand. Rubio is the most interesting, because he's young, charismatic and probably the best speaker of the Pub candidates. He could potentially win back enough of the Hispanic vote to mount a serious challenge. Walker is young, but I'm not sure about his ability to expand the base. Paul would be interesting, but he doesn't appear to have much support beyond his libertarian base, and the libertarians have too small a footprint in the party to make his nomination at all probable.
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Old 07-17-2015, 09:29 AM
 
12,997 posts, read 13,644,862 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Clinton's certain nomination makes 2016 the "Year of the Woman" politically. How women vote will be bigger than ever, Walker is a political misogynist, or so the Democrats will say over and over. That aside, I don't expect Walker to win. He's a freshman candidate and does not have the talent on his side that Bush does. It's the handlers and the behind the scenes operatives who win primary elections. Walker is 2020 or 2024.
Up until a few days ago, I would have bet any takers $1,000 Bush was going to be the nominee. I still think Bush is the most likely candidate, but I can see scenarios where Walker will come out on top if he plays his hand right.

As usual, the ultra cons are not happy and are looking for an alternate to the inevitable. Also as usual, most of the candidates they are flirting with are ridiculous clowns. 2012 had Cain, Gingrich, Santorum .. and even a little Palin though she never ran ... 2016 was going to be about Cruz, Carson, maybe even Huckabee 2.0, but Trump stole the show.

They do have Walker though. The man is a conservative, and he's also a professional. If and when they get serious about backing a real candidate, he's the one they're likely going to look to. I can see the establishment backing him if he wins primary after primary early next year. The lunatics have taken over the GOP asylum many times in recent history. This may be the year they actually successfully get their pick over the establishment one.
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Old 07-17-2015, 12:56 PM
 
Location: San Francisco, CA
99,563 posts, read 4,492,037 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by treasurefinder View Post
I think the Dem power brokers are afraid of Rubio, but they should be afraid of Bush. In my circle, no one likes Hillary, and they pretty much all say they might vote for Bush, and if Bush wins they wont be too upset. Honestly, I wouldnt have a problem with Bush, my only issue is the SCOTUS nominees, there is just too much at stake.
Why? They want Wolfowitz and Cheney in charge of our foreign policy again so we can get bogged down in more Middle East wars?

The Jeb Bush Adviser Who Should Scare You | Mother Jones
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Old 07-17-2015, 01:07 PM
 
698 posts, read 587,805 times
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Bush or Rubio. The rest of the clown car are the type of GOP nominees that Democrats dream about, an assortment of religious freaks and social conservative nutjobs or obvious jokes like Trump.
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Old 07-17-2015, 01:47 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
29,218 posts, read 22,365,741 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newtoks View Post
Bush or Rubio. The rest of the clown car are the type of GOP nominees that Democrats dream about, an assortment of religious freaks and social conservative nutjobs or obvious jokes like Trump.
Possibly one of these guys may cause a bit of concern. But the Democratic party fears none of the Republican candidates so far.

The nation is now so polarized that Independents will not swing 2016. Republicans can't count on them to do the job because they now lack the numbers. The voter swing that counts lies in several groups: the minorities who haven't voted much, the young who were indifferent for so long, the undecided voters who never make up their minds until they're in the booth, and the women.

The Democratic base is large enough to get their nominee close, and they only need a fraction of all the above groups, or the swing of one of them in large numbers, to win. Since only the undecided voters are never reliable, the party is presently working very hard on the other three, and the Republicans are allowing the Democrats have them all.

Big money won't help either party, because Obama's effective and experienced found game leaders and volunteers is intact in all 50 states, and whoever wins the Democratic nomination will inherit it. Since it was unbeatable twice, it's going to work a 3rd time, as President Obama will be solidly behind whoever wins the nomination. There will be millions of dollars raised by both parties, but a lot of it will be squandered, especially by the party that lacks the ground organization.

The only fear in the Democratic party is caused by it's own leadership. The Democratic National Committee was a complete failure in 2014, and so far, it remains an intact coop of faint-hearted chickens who played it safe and caused a lot of races to be lost by doing so. Unlike the Republican National Committee, the DNC still wields considerable power within the party. It remains unknown as yet if the members have grown spines since last year, but if they have not, they will be hard to get rid of unless there's a lot of solid party opposition to them.
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Old 07-17-2015, 04:13 PM
 
34,054 posts, read 17,071,203 times
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Bush or Rubio would be the biggest challenge for Dems, as the key to a GOP win is:

In EVERY swing state,

(1)Win more independents than Dems

and

(2) Win more Dems than the Repubs lost to Dems
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Old 07-17-2015, 06:27 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
37,803 posts, read 41,013,481 times
Reputation: 62204
Quote:
Originally Posted by J.Thomas View Post
Walker is a loser.

Bush is also weak.
This doesn't address the question.
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Old 07-17-2015, 06:37 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
37,803 posts, read 41,013,481 times
Reputation: 62204
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb View Post
Independents, or more aptly named "swing voters," like to vote for people who aren't visibly retarded or manifestly insane. I know that's becoming an increasingly tall order in today's GOP, but that's where we're at. Jeb seems to be reasonably intelligent and stable enough to appeal to some of them.
So in your opinion Independent = Your idea of moderate?

I've never thought of Independents that way. John Anderson, Eugene McCarthy, Ross Perot and George Wallace all ran on some Independent Party ticket.
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Old 07-17-2015, 06:49 PM
 
27,141 posts, read 15,318,187 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluesjuke View Post
The biggest thing about Trump right now is people are sending the message to the Republican Party that though we voted them in and gave them huge wins in 2012 and 2014 they screwed up and we are thoroughly disgusted with their lack of a good performance.

Correction in content- too late to Edit.
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