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I don't think GOP would have any choice but to nominate Mr. Trump (assuming he wins the primaries and caucuses). If he goes independent (and you know he will in that circumstance), GOP would presumably (but not necessarily) lose. Would they accept an almost certain loss versus having some chance of a Republican in the White House?
Mick
He won't come out on top in the primaries and caucuses when all it said and done. It'll be some mainstream GOP guy (maybe Bush, maybe someone else). It WON'T be Trump.
Oh, no coalition lasts forever, but the GOP is wayyyyyy closer to fracturing than the Democrats are. It could happen in the GOP this election. When Trump doesn't get the nomination (and he won't) his supporters will be PO'ed big time. Remember how ticked the "Paul" people were when they felt they were "push out" at the GOP convention? That's nothing compared to what will happen this time.
Pass the popcorn.
Ken
Wishful thinking. I heard an ABC analyst comment today about how there are similar fractures in both parties making this the year of the outsider--Sanders and Webb on the left, Trump, Carson, and Firorina on the right. The ABC guy also noted that Ted Cruz, who has been moving up in the polls, is kind of an insider-outsider who has fought DC from within DC.
As for Trump, out of all of my conservative friends, I know only one who supports Trump, and he is an ex-rodeo performer who unfortunately has brain damage from rodeo activities (I'm not kidding). IMO Trump is primarily getting support from the low info segment of the right, just as Obama exploited the low info left in 2008. The only difference is that the low info left is more numerous than the low info right. This is why Democrats have a natural advantage in presidential years, when low info voters are more likely to turn out, and a natural disadvantage in mid-terms.
I also wonder how much support Trump is getting from working-class whites who typically would vote Democratic. I haven't seen any data on this, but I'm willing to bet that it is significant. After all Trump takes many positions that would naturally appeal to that segment--protectionism, single payer health care, anti-Mexican-immigration, etc.
Wishful thinking. I heard an ABC analyst comment today about how there are similar fractures in both parties making this the year of the outsider--Sanders and Webb on the left, Trump, Carson, and Firorina on the right. The ABC guy also noted that Ted Cruz, who has been moving up in the polls, is kind of an insider-outsider who has fought DC from within DC.
As for Trump, out of all of my conservative friends, I know only one who supports Trump, and he is an ex-rodeo performer who unfortunately has brain damage from rodeo activities (I'm not kidding). IMO Trump is primarily getting support from the low info segment of the right, just as Obama exploited the low info left in 2008. The only difference is that the low info left is more numerous than the low info right. This is why Democrats have a natural advantage in presidential years, when low info voters are more likely to turn out, and a natural disadvantage in mid-terms.
I also wonder how much support Trump is getting from working-class whites who typically would vote Democratic. I haven't seen any data on this, but I'm willing to bet that it is significant. After all Trump takes many positions that would naturally appeal to that segment--protectionism, single payer health care, anti-Mexican-immigration, etc.
I think Nate Silver should go run after the Scooby van and hope no one throws it in reverse.
Has ANY of the so-called expert analysts been right so far?
I'm not under-educated or low income and referring to a trailer park riot...well, try not to fall off your high horse.
Actually yes, Nate Silver has gotten it exactly right often. He called the last general election to a state. Know why? He doesn't make predictions based on emotion.
"Obama may have won the presidency on election night, but pundit Nate Silverwon the internet by correctly predicting presidential race outcomes in every state plus the District of Columbia — a perfect 51/51 score."
And the midterms: "Assuming Landrieu and Begich lose their seats, FiveThirtyEight will have correctly predicted the outcomes of every Senate contest but two."
Actually yes, Nate Silver has gotten it exactly right often. He called the last general election to a state. Know why? He doesn't make predictions based on emotion.
Which is why he got Hillary wrong. You can't take the numbers from previous candidates and apply them to Hillary.
We'll see what happens when the actual primaries start. If a guy who has supported socialized medicine, an assault weapons ban, and confiscation of private property can win a GOP primary I will be shocked, dismayed, and looking for a new political home.
We'll see what happens when the actual primaries start. If a guy who has supported socialized medicine, an assault weapons ban, and confiscation of private property can win a GOP primary I will be shocked, dismayed, and looking for a new political home.
It's not about Trump. He could support pulling the wings off of flies and it doesn't matter.
This is what those who claim to be smarter can't seem to grasp.
IMO Trump is primarily getting support from the low info segment of the right, just as Obama exploited the low info left in 2008. The only difference is that the low info left is more numerous than the low info right. This is why Democrats have a natural advantage in presidential years, when low info voters are more likely to turn out, and a natural disadvantage in mid-terms.
.
Absolutely true - at least in a mathematical sense. You cannot carry a Presidential election by appealing to lower-end white voters, but you certain can take the Senate or House half the time (for another 10 years, anyways). The base is just not strong enough, even with a deep red Texas. When that get's purple-ish, look out.......
The GOP would do a lot better if they embraced a random "RINO" as their standard-bearer and pick-off some moderate voters (married people who make money, upper-middle class conservatives, +15% on Hispanics); for Christ's sake, they couldn't even unite in adequate opposition to a black, left-wing President of conspiratorial immigrant status, which is the Holy Trinity of AM-radio ire.
Wishful thinking. I heard an ABC analyst comment today about how there are similar fractures in both parties making this the year of the outsider--Sanders and Webb on the left, Trump, Carson, and Firorina on the right. The ABC guy also noted that Ted Cruz, who has been moving up in the polls, is kind of an insider-outsider who has fought DC from within DC.
As for Trump, out of all of my conservative friends, I know only one who supports Trump, and he is an ex-rodeo performer who unfortunately has brain damage from rodeo activities (I'm not kidding). IMO Trump is primarily getting support from the low info segment of the right, just as Obama exploited the low info left in 2008. The only difference is that the low info left is more numerous than the low info right. This is why Democrats have a natural advantage in presidential years, when low info voters are more likely to turn out, and a natural disadvantage in mid-terms.
I also wonder how much support Trump is getting from working-class whites who typically would vote Democratic. I haven't seen any data on this, but I'm willing to bet that it is significant. After all Trump takes many positions that would naturally appeal to that segment--protectionism, single payer health care, anti-Mexican-immigration, etc.
Your comment, in bold, is really what the Republicans have always wanted. They have wanted a principled candidate who keeps promises and fights for them. Cruz was saying the same things that Trump has been saying, albeit, in a more polite and educated manner. He's been doing that for 4 years.
The GOP Establishment talking heads are the ones pushing the meme that the people who are the most angry are the low info segment of the right. There are people like Ben Shapiro who take great exception to that. And I know a whole lot of educated people who are angry at the GOP Establishment.
We'll see what happens when the actual primaries start. If a guy who has supported socialized medicine, an assault weapons ban, and confiscation of private property can win a GOP primary I will be shocked, dismayed, and looking for a new political home.
I see it this way too.
But I have to admit, it's been, by turns, funny and just plain weird, to see all these so-called conservatives line up for Trump, dissing other R contenders as RINOs.
Not to mention his personal life, and the four bankruptcies. Yes, I know it was his businesses that declared bankruptcy - you have to think that he has structured his companies to protect him for the consequences of his risky decisions. AFAIK, his companies have all been privately held.
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