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No. All I am saying is that he is not moving up in the polls when you look at them all. He is range bound and, I believe, will stay that way. Eventually the mainstream candidates (which means Bush) will overtake him. Whoever wins will need 40% or better most likely or its a brokered convention. That will be fun.
He is the top second choice! As people drop out, his support will go. His support isn't going up because there are something like 15 candidates. My god people invent new reasons every single day that Trump can't win. I'm not saying he will win, but the mental gymnastics people put themselves through to discredit Trump's candidacy is borderline delusional.
REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND
183 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN
REPUBLICAN.
Top 5 are on the board:
Trump 24%
Bush 13%
Carson 8%
Walker 7%
Rubio 7%
I like to look at trending, that is who is up or down since the same company (CNN/ORC) polled last month:
Trump up 5%
Bush down 2% Carson up 4%
Walker down 3%
Rubio treading water/same
Paul treading water/same Fiorina up 4% Kasich up 1%
Christie treading water/same
Cruz down 2%
Huckabee down 1%
Perry down 1%
Santorum treading water
Trending.....excellent idea and observation.
The next debate will be far different than the first. Fiorina will be there. Mrs. Reagan has invited them all of course. There was a recent article about the possible first 7 to drop out. You can bet the Perry's near the bottom will go into attack mode. What have they to lose? Another 1% on the downside?
Trending.....excellent idea and observation.
The next debate will be far different than the first. Fiorina will be there. Mrs. Reagan has invited them all of course. There was a recent article about the possible first 7 to drop out. You can bet the Perry's near the bottom will go into attack mode. What have they to lose? Another 1% on the downside?
It all depends on who they attack. If Trump attacks the establishment and others attack him over that, they will lose. If they join him in attacking the establishment they may gain.
He is the top second choice! As people drop out, his support will go. His support isn't going up because there are something like 15 candidates. My god people invent new reasons every single day that Trump can't win. I'm not saying he will win, but the mental gymnastics people put themselves through to discredit Trump's candidacy is borderline delusional.
But the polls show that there are more than 30% of GOP or lean-GOP voters who say they would NOT vote for Mr. Trump under any circumstances. That block is larger than the people who support him. As the field gets narrowed, Mr. Trump will gain some supporters for sure but his establishment competitors (Jeb!, Walker and/or Rubio of the world) will likely gain more of the voters who previously supported someone who dropped out.
If Mr. Trump is gaining popularity, his % should be going up. The fact that he's been around 25% consistently shows that that is the ceiling. Political scientists have shown over and over that polling % is directly correlated to the media exposure, and Mr. Trump has been dominating the airwaves for the last two months non-stop.
I sincerely hope he wins the nomination, or gets snubbed by the establishment.
But the polls show that there are more than 30% of GOP or lean-GOP voters who say they would NOT vote for Mr. Trump under any circumstances. That block is larger than the people who support him. As the field gets narrowed, Mr. Trump will gain some supporters for sure but his establishment competitors (Jeb!, Walker and/or Rubio of the world) will likely gain more of the voters who previously supported someone who dropped out.
If Mr. Trump is gaining popularity, his % should be going up. The fact that he's been around 25% consistently shows that that is the ceiling. Political scientists have shown over and over that polling % is directly correlated to the media exposure, and Mr. Trump has been dominating the airwaves for the last two months non-stop.
I sincerely hope he wins the nomination, or gets snubbed by the establishment.
Mick
Two months ago, the number of repubs that wouldn't vote for him was close to 60%, now it's 30%. Whose to say in another month or two, the number who wouldn't vote for him drops to 15%? On the other hand, maybe he says things/does things that cause him to collapse? All I am saying is that your numbers are today's numbers and not reflective of tomorrow's numbers or what way down the road might happen.
No. All I am saying is that he is not moving up in the polls when you look at them all. He is range bound and, I believe, will stay that way. Eventually the mainstream candidates (which means Bush) will overtake him. Whoever wins will need 40% or better most likely or its a brokered convention. That will be fun.
Spot on.
Like you, I don't think he'll take the nomination (it'll go to a "mainstream" GOP guy). What I expect to happen then is that Trump goes 3rd party.
It's all pretty interesting.
If he gets the nomination, he'll pull some Democrats with his stand on illegal immigration and legal immigration. With amnesty for criminals guilty of illegal entry (illegal immigrants), blacks would have the most to lose in the way of jobs and already suffer job loss because of the illegals so there are some votes and next, those that hold hi-tech jobs and are being replaced with HB1 like with Qualcomm: Qualcomm Lays Off 4,500 While Lobbying For More H-1bs | The Daily Caller
So, I wouldn't count Trump out yet. I see a lot of people grasping at straws trying to find reasons that he'll never get a shot but it will take more than that. I thought it was interesting during the debates going back to the 1970's to ask about statements/stands on issues because, how many of us haven't evolved since then. I am 60 years old and much, much more conservative than in the early 70's when my biggest dream was to live in a commune, a dream never realized. Really, go back that far?
I will vote for Trump as a Republican or 3rd party as I refuse to vote for the "lesser of the evils" which would be the Democrat or a less Republican than Mr. Trump.
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