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article number 1: GOP needs 47% Hispanic votes in order to win white house
The idea that the Republican candidate must convince 47 percent of Latinos starts from the hypothesis that whites and Asians will maintain their positions, whereas the number of blacks who vote Democratic will drop by 1 percent, since there will be no candidate of their race on the ballot, as there was in 2008 and 2012 with Barack Obama.
The surging importance of the Hispanic vote is also explained by the growing representation in the electorate of this minority, which in 2004 constituted 7 percent of voters, 8 percent in 2008, 9 percent in 2012, while estimates for 2016 put it at 10.4 percent, according to figures provided by Latino Decisions.
At a local level, the Latino vote could have a decisive role in key electoral districts that are most likely to switch political preferences and where the Republican hopeful for the White House needs to convince between 42 and 47 percent of Latinos.
article number 2: GOP doesn't need Latino votes in order to win white house
GOP Doesn’t Need Hispanic Votes to Win White House
November 20, 2014By Taegan Goddard100 Comments
Nate Cohn: “The Republicans have a path to the White House without Hispanic voters. It’s just a harder one.”
“This idea may seem jarring, given that Mitt Romney took just 27 percent of the Hispanic vote in his 2012 loss to Mr. Obama, according to the exit polls, while George W. Bush won about 40 percent in his 2004 victory. But in 2016 Hispanics will represent just 12 percent of eligible voters, and between 9 and 10 percent of actual voters. That’s a lot, but it’s not large enough to grant or deny Republicans the presidency.”
Mathematically speaking, these analyses necessarily assume that white voters are going to cast their votes more or less the same way they did in previously POTUS election cycles. Only from that baseline can they figure out how much Hispanic (or black or Asian) votes that a candidate needs to win.
So, if there is a sizable shift in how whites vote, then all bets are off. Someone like Mr. Trump could bring that about. However, the likes of Jeb!, Walker, Carson, etc. will not.
Historically, you have to remember, the Hispanics have voted nearly 2:1 in favor of the Democrats in every single POTUS election since 1976!! The only exception being GWB's reelection in 2004, where GWB lost by "only" 9%. If history holds, there is zero chance that the GOP would get 47% of the Hispanic vote. Simply not possible based on this track record. Thus, the question becomes whether the GOP nominee can shift so much white voters in his favor that Hispanic vote doesn't make a difference. Honestly, with the GOP deportation plan in place, I can't see how there won't be a substantial increase in turnout for Hispanics. We shall see.
Mathematically speaking, these analyses necessarily assume that white voters are going to cast their votes more or less the same way they did in previously POTUS election cycles. Only from that baseline can they figure out how much Hispanic (or black or Asian) votes that a candidate needs to win.
So, if there is a sizable shift in how whites vote, then all bets are off. Someone like Mr. Trump could bring that about. However, the likes of Jeb!, Walker, Carson, etc. will not.
Historically, you have to remember, the Hispanics have voted nearly 2:1 in favor of the Democrats in every single POTUS election since 1976!! The only exception being GWB's reelection in 2004, where GWB lost by "only" 9%. If history holds, there is zero chance that the GOP would get 47% of the Hispanic vote. Simply not possible based on this track record. Thus, the question becomes whether the GOP nominee can shift so much white voters in his favor that Hispanic vote doesn't make a difference. Honestly, with the GOP deportation plan in place, I can't see how there won't be a substantial increase in turnout for Hispanics. We shall see.
1) Not sure which article is closer to the truth and it doesn't matter to me because I can't do much about it.
2) He will win a large percentage of the legal immigrants who spent tens of thousands of dollars to be legal.
To think that all Latinos will vote as a block is not realistic. A large portion will be deceived by the
Spanish Language Media in effort to demonize Trump. But how many of those will be legal and able to vote I wonder.
They can protest but can they legally vote ? Trump has no say on that. I don't think Trump will win any Latino votes
because he says so, but those who will vote their interest, who believe he will create jobs and better opportunity's in
employment may be all that is needed.
article number 1: GOP needs 47% Hispanic votes in order to win white house
The idea that the Republican candidate must convince 47 percent of Latinos starts from the hypothesis that whites and Asians will maintain their positions, whereas the number of blacks who vote Democratic will drop by 1 percent, since there will be no candidate of their race on the ballot, as there was in 2008 and 2012 with Barack Obama.
The surging importance of the Hispanic vote is also explained by the growing representation in the electorate of this minority, which in 2004 constituted 7 percent of voters, 8 percent in 2008, 9 percent in 2012, while estimates for 2016 put it at 10.4 percent, according to figures provided by Latino Decisions.
At a local level, the Latino vote could have a decisive role in key electoral districts that are most likely to switch political preferences and where the Republican hopeful for the White House needs to convince between 42 and 47 percent of Latinos.
article number 2: GOP doesn't need Latino votes in order to win white house
GOP Doesn’t Need Hispanic Votes to Win White House
November 20, 2014By Taegan Goddard100 Comments
Nate Cohn: “The Republicans have a path to the White House without Hispanic voters. It’s just a harder one.”
“This idea may seem jarring, given that Mitt Romney took just 27 percent of the Hispanic vote in his 2012 loss to Mr. Obama, according to the exit polls, while George W. Bush won about 40 percent in his 2004 victory. But in 2016 Hispanics will represent just 12 percent of eligible voters, and between 9 and 10 percent of actual voters. That’s a lot, but it’s not large enough to grant or deny Republicans the presidency.”
1. In your opinion, which one of these articles is closer to the truth?
2. Do you HONESTLY believe Trump will win Latino votes because he said so?
I support Trump and will vote for him if he wins the nomination. But I doubt he will win Latino votes.
Thoughts?
I think that the claim in the first article you posted is obviously overstated. It was written from the perspective of a Latino advocate and overemphasizes the importance of the Latino vote. The Latino vote is obviously important, but much of the Latino vote is concentrated in states that aren't competitive. The crucial state where the Latino vote could torpedo the GOP in 2016 is Florida. If the GOP can hang onto Florida without the Hispanic vote, they can still win.
The second article is more accurate. The GOP can win without the Hispanic vote, but it becomes more difficult. The most probable path for a Republican win in 2016 is a general improvement of about 3% across the board with all of the major demographic groups; non-college whites, college whites, blacks, Hispanics and Asians/Others. Here's an interesting article by Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report that shows how these groups broke nationally and in all of the competitive states in 2012, how 2012 would have played out if the percentages of the electorate reflected what is expected in 2016, and what is the most plausible target numbers that the GOP needs nationally and in the battlegrounds to win.
As far as Donald Trump is concerned, I'm a Democrat and whatever I say that's negative to Trump will be taken by a Trump supporter as being a reflection of Democratic fear of Trump. That being said, I can't see Trump getting any more of the Latino vote than Mitt Romney, but Trump's problem goes beyond Hispanics. He's such a polarizing figure that if nominated and even facing a wounded Hillary Clinton, he would face steep challenges in winning a majority. Check out the latest ABC poll:
The gaps based on education and gender are mind boggling. He wins men by 15% but loses women by 21% for a gender gap of 36% which is 14% greater than any ever recorded in a POTUS election. What's really bizarre is within those numbers there's only a 5% gender gap between college men (R+2) and non-college women (D+3) but the gap between college women (D+48) and non-college men (R+21) is a ridiculous 69%.
The long term problem for the GOP is that their strongest cohort of the electorate (non-college whites) are dropping as a share of the electorate by about 3 to 4% with every POTUS cycle, meaning over the course of time, they must do better with white college graduates and minority voters to win. The question probably should be, which GOP candidate can get base Republican turnout, while still gaining enough among college grads and minorities to win. That's a really good question.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 09-14-2015 at 10:46 AM..
1) Not sure which article is closer to the truth and it doesn't matter to me because I can't do much about it.
2) He will win a large percentage of the legal immigrants who spent tens of thousands of dollars to be legal.
To think that all Latinos will vote as a block is not realistic. A large portion will be deceived by the
Spanish Language Media in effort to demonize Trump. But how many of those will be legal and able to vote I wonder.
They can protest but can they legally vote ? Trump has no say on that. I don't think Trump will win any Latino votes
because he says so, but those who will vote their interest, who believe he will create jobs and better opportunity's in
employment may be all that is needed.
I think that the claim in the first article you posted is obviously overstated. It was written from the perspective of a Latino advocate and overemphasizes the importance of the Latino vote. The Latino vote is obviously important, but much of the Latino vote is concentrated in states that aren't competitive. The crucial state where the Latino vote could torpedo the GOP in 2016 is Florida. If the GOP can hang onto Florida without the Hispanic vote, they can still win.
The second article is more accurate. The GOP can win without the Hispanic vote, but it becomes more difficult. The most probable path for a Republican win in 2016 is a general improvement of about 3% across the board with all of the major demographic groups; non-college whites, college whites, blacks, Hispanics and Asians/Others. Here's an interesting article by Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report that shows how these groups broke nationally and in all of the competitive states in 2012, how 2012 would have played out if the percentages of the electorate reflected what is expected in 2016, and what is the most plausible target numbers that the GOP needs nationally and in the battlegrounds to win.
1. Right now, maybe article #1 might be closer to the truth. Even though Hispanics are not a huge minority, this country is so evenly divided that every vote counts. FL, CO, NV, NM are all important states where the Hispanic vote can make a difference. I don't see blacks switching to republicans any time soon. I don't know if they can convince 47% of Latino voters though. My guess is that the only way some Latinos will switch is if Bush and to some extent Marco Rubio is the candidate.
Obama had a lot of appeal with hispanics. Even though he was not "one of them" he represented the "underdog" this dream that a non white could be president. Don't forget many Hispanics have African ancestors too. Romney on the hand was not even that likable in the first place. He looked like privileged man who was not in touch with the average American.
Now if republicans are able to attract some white democrats then they could win the election.
2. Trump will not win the Latino vote. I'm pretty sure he already knows that and that is why you see his agenda becoming more socialist as he speaks. He is going after the white democratic vote. Dummy he is not.
1. Right now, maybe article #1 might be closer to the truth. Even though Hispanics are not a huge minority, this country is so evenly divided that every vote counts. I don't see blacks switching to republicans any time soon. I don't know if they can convince 47% of Latino voters though. My guess is that the only way some Latinos will switch is if Bush and to some extent Marco Rubio is the candidate.
Obama had a lot of appeal with hispanics. Even though he was not "one of them" he represented the "underdog" this dream that a non white could be president. Don't forget many Hispanics have African ancestors too. Romney on the hand was not even that likable in the first place. He looked like privileged man who was not in touch with the average American.
Now if republicans are able to attract some white democrats then they could win the election.
2. Trump will not win the Latino vote. I'm pretty sure he already knows that and that is why you see his agenda becoming more socialist as he speaks. He is going after the white demo.Socratic vote. Dummy he is not.
I agree with the bolded.
According to this article
Donald Trump's Anti-Mexico Controversy Unites Latin Stars
I don't think he needs the Hispanic vote to win. He'll get a portion, especially those that did it legally and those that suffer from the presence of the illegals. People often overplay the role that "race" plays.
I often think these illegals embarrass a rather large portion of the legal Hispanics.
As US citizens that aren't looking to continue to profit from the illegals, I think most are on the same page.
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