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Jeb is behind in the polls, but he's still the likely winner in prediction markets. How is this possible? What type of data and process are used to rank candidates in a prediction market.
I buy and sell on PredictIt.org and it works like the stock market. You have a bid and ask price... if you want to buy shares, you pay the ask price, if you want to sell shares, you pay the bid price. The ask price is higher than the current price and the bid price is lower than the current price.
Let's say Bush is 35 (price will go to either 0 or 100 at election time)
Ask price might be 38
Bid price might be 32
If I buy all the shares being offered at 38, the current price will move to 38.
If I sold all the shares being offered at 32, the current price will move to 32.
What makes the price move are people buying and selling. Most people believe the polls are just a summer fling that will pass. Reality is Bush and Clinton will most likely be the nominees despite what polls say now. When money is on the line people are more rationale. If Trump is still leading when the primary election start and he is leading Super Tuesday polls, then he will for sure surpass Bush on prediction markets.
I buy and sell on PredictIt.org and it works like the stock market. You have a bid and ask price... if you want to buy shares, you pay the ask price, if you want to sell shares, you pay the bid price. The ask price is higher than the current price and the bid price is lower than the current price.
Does this work in the reverse? I want to bet on the two from each party I believe will NOT win. I read the FAQs and Supports, Suggestions, but didn't find it.
Does this work in the reverse? I want to bet on the two from each party I believe will NOT win. I read the FAQs and Supports, Suggestions, but didn't find it.
It doesn't work in reverse, but you can bet on who will be the next candidate to drop out.
It's pretty fun, I'm down a couple hundred dollars, but we'll see. I'm going to hold until the prediction date, even though you can sell it early. At the peak I was up $300, so we'll see. I have some bets on Biden entering the race and some money on Trump and Sanders winning the nominations.
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I read the FAQs and Supports, Suggestions, but didn't find it.
