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Old 10-26-2015, 03:53 AM
 
230 posts, read 285,219 times
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An interesting read on the state of the race, written by Mark Halperin. Please feel free to criticize the source as well as the content.

The Most Likely Next President Is Hillary Clinton - Bloomberg Politics
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Old 10-26-2015, 03:56 AM
 
45,251 posts, read 17,960,183 times
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Though he is forced to admit that Trump exists, his arguments are based on her running against an "establishment" status-quo candidate.
When will they learn this election isn't going to be like that. He completely ignores why Trump is going to send Hillary back to her 1 percenters in the Hamptons.

Last edited by WaldoKitty; 10-26-2015 at 04:07 AM..
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Old 10-26-2015, 04:41 AM
 
Location: Tampa, FL
27,798 posts, read 26,222,762 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrogCross View Post
An interesting read on the state of the race, written by Mark Halperin. Please feel free to criticize the source as well as the content.

The Most Likely Next President Is Hillary Clinton - Bloomberg Politics
I'm starting to come to that realization. She did too well in the hearing and actually came out looking better, imo. The thought of her a POTUS is extremely depressing.

Benghazi hearing floods Clinton campaign coffers with cash - POLITICO
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Old 10-26-2015, 04:47 AM
 
11,758 posts, read 5,550,086 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
He completely ignores why Trump is going to send Hillary back to her 1 percenters in the Hamptons.
. . . . such as Mr. Trump.

Mick
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Old 10-26-2015, 04:54 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
6,618 posts, read 10,679,859 times
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I went to one of those betting sites, probably UK or Ireland, where people put their money where their mouth is, not some poll with just mouths.

Mrs. Bill Clinton's odds are currently around 72%. The next nearest competitor is Marco Rubio at around 17%.

One could take the average of various such sites, but I don't think the current average odds would be significantly different.

In the overall government, most likely we will enjoy at least two more years of status quo: establishment president, fractious House, tied Senate (anything in 41-59 range along party lines).

In that likely scenario, then, an interesting question is whether Mrs. Bill will win with more or less than 50% of the popular vote and how fractious the House will be.

Any betting sites taking action on those two questions?
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Old 10-26-2015, 05:42 AM
 
Location: Purgatory
6,322 posts, read 4,762,782 times
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I thought those betting sites were mostly in Italy?

I would vote Hillary for the win with < 50% pop vote with another R dominated house.


I gotta admit, after seeing how Obama's admin brought all the racists out of the bushes, i'm not looking fwd to the misogyny that a Hillary win is inevitably gonna bring......
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Old 10-26-2015, 06:05 AM
 
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It is well known that the betting market predicts political outcomes better than polls on national elections. I believe the seminal study on the topic looked at the results of presidential elections over a 70 year period, and the betting market was correct in all but one election.

Sorry Republicans.

Mick
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Old 10-26-2015, 08:06 AM
 
79,186 posts, read 33,616,016 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MTQ3000 View Post
It is well known that the betting market predicts political outcomes better than polls on national elections. I believe the seminal study on the topic looked at the results of presidential elections over a 70 year period, and the betting market was correct in all but one election.

Sorry Republicans.

Mick
Those same sites had Trump 100:1 not long ago.

WASHINGTON Not too long ago, a dollar bet on businessman Donald Trump once would have returned $100 if he won the Republican presidential nomination. Now, the odds are 8 to 1.

Trump's betting odds improve as poll numbers rise | NJ.com
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Old 10-26-2015, 08:20 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
6,618 posts, read 10,679,859 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Utopian Slums View Post
I thought those betting sites were mostly in Italy?
No, no, definitely not Italy. I lived there a long time, no way those people, with the language barrier, understand the intricacies of domestic US politics. It is definitely UK/Ireland where betting (punting) on basically anything is perfectly legal, sort of how Lloyds of London insures almost anything.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Utopian Slums View Post
I would vote Hillary for the win with < 50% pop vote with another R dominated house..
I could live with that.

I would never actually vote Hillary, but I could anticipate voting again third party or write-in or leaving blank the presidency, which is equivalent to politely standing out of her way, while taking very seriously the other 20-something issues up for election on the entire four-something page ballot (in three languages in my district) - US House rep, US Senator, statehouse rep, state senator, county officials including judges, state and local referenda - lots of equally important stuff to do there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp View Post
Those same sites had Trump 100:1 not long ago ... Now, the odds are 8 to 1.
That's basically 12.5%, behind Rubio at around 17%.

Mathematically, the odds will narrow as the number of candidates dwindles; one would expect something in the neighborhood of 55%-45% after the respective conventions of the two-headed monster.

I would love to see two establishment candidates in a four-way battle with two well-known independents, say Bernie and Donald, but that's just a wish-list item.

Nonetheless, Donald vs Hillary would at least be somewhat exciting.

Last edited by bale002; 10-26-2015 at 08:29 AM..
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Old 10-26-2015, 08:27 AM
 
5,937 posts, read 5,436,894 times
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Eh. It's too early for predictions ike this.

Plus, she's a Clinton. There will probably be 20 scandals and/or bloopers on her or Bill's part between now and next year this time. Not to mention how absolutely apesh**t the right-leaning media will get if she's the nominee.

That said, for the moment the odds seem to be leaning in her favor. But that could change.
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