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As a Pennsylvanian I feel I can comment on this. Sen. Toomey (that's how he spells his name) has the advantage of being an incumbent and has been reaching out beyond trying to appeal not only to his Republican base. A lot of conservatives are disappointed in him because he has morphed into a "moderate." Still, Pennsylvania is becoming "bluer" as we have seen the Dems take back the Governorship, the Attorney General (who is now in legal trouble but still hanging in there), but more importantly the 'slam-dunk' total victory on all the judicial races earlier this week. I think Toomey only has a 50-50 chance at best. 2016 is a presidential year and that's when the Dems come out in the Keystone State.
I think the GOP Presidential nominee might play a big role for Toomey. If someone like Cruz winds up with the nomination, it would be an absolute train wreck for the GOP in suburban Philadelphia.
The republicans have been the worst Gerrymanders for the last 3 decades having won big in the census cycles. In the past this has balanced out and we have had decent balance allowing government to work.
The last cycle broke the back so to speak.
You have states which are very 50/50 going 13-5 and 12-4 for the republicans in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Several of the maps have been thrown out they are so bad Florida is the big one which comes to mind. When you have a party which wins 54% of the congressional vote but has 30 less seats then democracy is gone.
This isn't about Republicans vs. Dems. here it is about good democracy which we are not seeing at this point in time. Instead we have idiots running our elected government. Take Ben Carson who is leading the republican field and thinks that Adam and Eve walked around with dinosaurs back in the day. Do you really want this guy's finger on the button @ 3am? or having to make a decision about economic policy in the US? Now I am picking on a republican but you can go across the isle and find a democrat just as bad.
I personally favor states that use means like independent panels or other non-partisan methods.
However you are essentially trying to claim that the redistricting that occurred AFTER the 2010 midterm bloodbath are the reason that the Republicans did so well.
In short, you had the same dang districts in 2008 that you had in 2010 but you're crying gerrymandering.
I guess I shouldn't be surprised. The meme is so abused we even had a poster blaming gerrymandering for Republicans winning governor races.
Now I have given solid reason and news as to why they will flip. You just don't like they are not in favor of the your "home team" the republicans and cannot argue with my logic.
I haven't voted Republican in over a decade.
Why is it that the most biased posters are so quick to point the finger at others?
Oh yeah, the old adage "least tolerant of the sins we commit" springs to mind.
You've definitely proven one thing to me, further speculation is absolutely a waste of my time with people that are so politically far gone.
The fact is hard to ignore: Republicans are winning big in individual states. They're winning governorships, majorities in state legislatures, U.S. Congressional seats, etc. We saw this demonstrated last night with the election of Matt Bevin in Kentucky, the retention of the VA State Senate by Republicans (which was at risk), and a few other smaller races. In 2014, we saw Republicans take back control of the U.S. Senate, hold the U.S. House, and pick up a few VERY unexpected governorships; including Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts. Overall, the last two years have skewed heavily Republican.
My question is why is this happening? Is it is a shift in public opinion, or are Republicans just providing better candidates? The usual Democratic answer is that the districts are gerrymandered and that Republicans pump a lot of outside money into these races, but the opposite has been true in the past few years. Kentucky Governor-elect Bevin was heavily outspent by Democratic candidate Jack Conway. In order to flip the VA Senate, Democrats took a lot of outside money in order for Democratic Governor McAuliffe to pass gun control legislation. Even with big money interests, Democrats simply aren't winning these important state elections.
All of this also brings in the question of why polling is so inaccurate. Polls from just a few days ago had Jack Conway winning the Governor's race by 3%-9% of the vote. Bevin won by a total of 9%. A similar occurance took place in Maryland last year. Now-Governor Larry Hogan, who was expected to lose by a margin of around 9%, yet ended up winning by 4% in very heavily blue Maryland. Hogan's victory was especially impressive given his campaign was always considered a long-shot. Polling, as it seems, is starting to consistently skew toward Democrats.
One last thought. While Democrats like to take victory laps when their candidates are elected during presidential years, they're missing something big. Legislatures not only have a large amount of pull in a state, but they also prep candidates for higher office. The individual who was expected to challenge Rand Paul next year for U.S. Senate was defeated last night, which effectively ended his chances of challenging Paul. Governors have a chance, if popular, to sway their state in favor of their political party. I imagine that popular Republican Governor John Kasich of Ohio will have enough pull to encourage people to support the eventual Republican candidate. His approval rating of 60% is extremely high for a purple swing state. Even Senate candidates are good for prepping for higher office. Marco Rubio and Rand Paul were both elected in 2010, both of whom are running for a higher office. Democrats can take victory laps for the Presidency all they want, but pull back the curtains, and there are massive Republican majorities in governorships, state legislatures, and U.S. Congress.
People just like Obama, Hillary, & Bernie are doing all the campaigning for them.
Not hard to win, when you just tell the truth.
The answer to the question is obvious. Low voter turnout. I don't see how you can disagree with that. 37% in 2014, and very low turnout in the recent elections in MS, LA & KY.
The answer to the question is obvious. Low voter turnout. I don't see how you can disagree with that. 37% in 2014, and very low turnout in the recent elections in MS, LA & KY.
Nonsense argument of course. The most expensive Senate race in USA history was in NC. Harry Reid pulled out all stops and spend many many many 10s of millions trying to keep incumbent Kay Hagen in office. Some weeks they had bought up all the air time on TV as the adverts were relentless. Yet Hagen lost. Turnout was very high.
The answer to the question is obvious. Low voter turnout. I don't see how you can disagree with that. 37% in 2014, and very low turnout in the recent elections in MS, LA & KY.
You then have to ask, why the democrat message resonates so poorly with the general public to not motivate them to vote.
Nonsense argument of course. The most expensive Senate race in USA history was in NC. Harry Reid pulled out all stops and spend many many many 10s of millions trying to keep incumbent Kay Hagen in office. Some weeks they had bought up all the air time on TV as the adverts were relentless. Yet Hagen lost. Turnout was very high.
The GOP spent more on that race. Not to mention turnout in raw #'s for a midterm was at a high, but not as a % of voters turning out.
So it isn't anything new?
It wasn't a record?
Voter turnout has never ever been 100%, but it sounds like it is growing from past elections. In some cases, they have been called "all those that have been silent for too long", but are the majority of the population in that segment that is called "low voter turnout" in the past, with no one worth voting for.
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