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Old 11-06-2015, 05:42 PM
 
Location: Florida
22,144 posts, read 9,412,616 times
Reputation: 18083

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
The Dems do a horrible job of getting out their voters. Really, when Obama's machine is not in the picture, they stay home. The Dems have to do improve on messaging, candidates, and especially turnout. If the apathy continues into the general next year, we could end up with a Republican in the White House.
That is cute--calling Obama's campaign a "machine." His guys ran an excellent campaign. They were smart and had an excellent and strategic ground game. If it were sports, you wouldn't call it a "machine." You would say they had a great strategy and played a good game, which Obama's team in fact did.

Also the Dems were fairly united. The GOP was not and still is not. The GOP has the inherent 'base' vs. 'establishment' issues. The base didn't like Romney.

Probably not a good idea to count on winning due to turnout. A decent candidate would do more for the GOP than counting on low turnout.

One reason the GOP does well in off-year elections is that they have a lot of seniors, and seniors are known to go out and vote in mid-terms and off years. Gerrymandering has also been a boon to the GOP in the local elections.

Bush didn't even win the national popular vote against Gore (a candidate Dems were not overly enthusiastic about) in 2000.

If the economy stays this strong or gets stronger and unemployment keeps shrinking, the GOP is going to have an uphill battle.
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Old 11-06-2015, 05:48 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,978 posts, read 15,450,405 times
Reputation: 3946
Quote:
Originally Posted by BentBow View Post
So it isn't anything new?

It wasn't a record?




Voter turnout has never ever been 100%, but it sounds like it is growing from past elections. In some cases, they have been called "all those that have been silent for too long", but are the majority of the population in that segment that is called "low voter turnout" in the past, with no one worth voting for.
It is growing in raw #'s in some cases because the population is larger, % wise of eligible voters however 2014 was quite low across the board
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Old 01-04-2016, 12:56 PM
 
Location: Type 0.7 Kardashev
10,577 posts, read 7,251,277 times
Reputation: 37457
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dequindre View Post
The fact is hard to ignore: Republicans are winning big in individual states. They're winning governorships, majorities in state legislatures, U.S. Congressional seats, etc. We saw this demonstrated last night with the election of Matt Bevin in Kentucky, the retention of the VA State Senate by Republicans (which was at risk), and a few other smaller races. In 2014, we saw Republicans take back control of the U.S. Senate, hold the U.S. House, and pick up a few VERY unexpected governorships; including Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts. Overall, the last two years have skewed heavily Republican.

My question is why is this happening? Is it is a shift in public opinion, or are Republicans just providing better candidates? The usual Democratic answer is that the districts are gerrymandered and that Republicans pump a lot of outside money into these races, but the opposite has been true in the past few years. Kentucky Governor-elect Bevin was heavily outspent by Democratic candidate Jack Conway. In order to flip the VA Senate, Democrats took a lot of outside money in order for Democratic Governor McAuliffe to pass gun control legislation. Even with big money interests, Democrats simply aren't winning these important state elections.

All of this also brings in the question of why polling is so inaccurate. Polls from just a few days ago had Jack Conway winning the Governor's race by 3%-9% of the vote. Bevin won by a total of 9%. A similar occurance took place in Maryland last year. Now-Governor Larry Hogan, who was expected to lose by a margin of around 9%, yet ended up winning by 4% in very heavily blue Maryland. Hogan's victory was especially impressive given his campaign was always considered a long-shot. Polling, as it seems, is starting to consistently skew toward Democrats.

One last thought. While Democrats like to take victory laps when their candidates are elected during presidential years, they're missing something big. Legislatures not only have a large amount of pull in a state, but they also prep candidates for higher office. The individual who was expected to challenge Rand Paul next year for U.S. Senate was defeated last night, which effectively ended his chances of challenging Paul. Governors have a chance, if popular, to sway their state in favor of their political party. I imagine that popular Republican Governor John Kasich of Ohio will have enough pull to encourage people to support the eventual Republican candidate. His approval rating of 60% is extremely high for a purple swing state. Even Senate candidates are good for prepping for higher office. Marco Rubio and Rand Paul were both elected in 2010, both of whom are running for a higher office. Democrats can take victory laps for the Presidency all they want, but pull back the curtains, and there are massive Republican majorities in governorships, state legislatures, and U.S. Congress.
Why? Because candidates like Matt Bevin whisper those "I'll repeal Obamacare!" sweet-nothings that the Teahadists love to hear, and are gullible enough to believe.

Remember?
Bevin would eliminate Kentucky's Medicaid expansion - Washington Times

Useful idiots that they are, they line up and cast their votes. And...
O'care-Hating Kentucky Guv Comes Around On Medicaid Expansion

Quote:
By continuing Medicaid's expansion under Obamacare, Bevin will join a long line of GOP governors who have railed against the program but eventually come around to supporting it.
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:55 PM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
66,329 posts, read 33,662,185 times
Reputation: 14193
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unsettomati View Post
Why? Because candidates like Matt Bevin whisper those "I'll repeal Obamacare!" sweet-nothings that the Teahadists love to hear, and are gullible enough to believe.

Remember?
Bevin would eliminate Kentucky's Medicaid expansion - Washington Times

Useful idiots that they are, they line up and cast their votes. And...
O'care-Hating Kentucky Guv Comes Around On Medicaid Expansion

Hope & Change worked for you.... The sweet-nothings that had the executive order of a dictator in mind.
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Old 01-04-2016, 04:17 PM
 
Location: Long Island, NY
19,715 posts, read 11,537,049 times
Reputation: 5606
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dequindre
The fact is hard to ignore: Republicans are winning big in individual states. They're winning governorships, majorities in state legislatures, U.S. Congressional seats, etc. We saw this demonstrated last night with the election of Matt Bevin in Kentucky, the retention of the VA State Senate by Republicans (which was at risk), and a few other smaller races. In 2014, we saw Republicans take back control of the U.S. Senate, hold the U.S. House, and pick up a few VERY unexpected governorships; including Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts. Overall, the last two years have skewed heavily Republican.

My question is why is this happening?
Why? Because Democratic voters seem to vote in presidential elections and then go to sleep for four years, not voting in midterm elections. The consequences are that state legislatures draw the Congressional district lines, which in recent elections Democrats got more votes for House races but lost overall seats.
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