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Old 11-05-2015, 06:28 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,967 posts, read 15,408,519 times
Reputation: 3945

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Quote:
Originally Posted by shooting4life View Post
2010 census didn't affect redistributing besides a movement of house seats from one state to another. 2010 happened because of American not wanting Obamacare.


Democrats keep trying to blaiming gerrymandering for their woes but is has no bearing on governor or senate races where they are still losing.

I didn't say 2010 happened because of reistricting. I said the GOP's success in 2010 put them in control o redistricting which has helped them since then. Yes you are correct the Governor and Senate seats have nothing to do with redistricting. Turnout problems in midterm years have hurt the Democrats big time there, 2014 had the added caveat of the Democrats defending many more seats. The Democrats actually picked up Senate and Governor seats in higher turnout Presidential years so it will be interesting to see what happens with that next year. That is especially true with the Senate as it will be the inverse of 2014. The GOP will be the ones defending far more seats next year.
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Old 11-05-2015, 06:37 AM
 
359 posts, read 764,974 times
Reputation: 564
Democrats will win everything next year: White House, Senate, and the House.
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Old 11-05-2015, 07:21 AM
 
6,848 posts, read 2,448,596 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dequindre View Post
Here's another scenario that Democrats aren't thinking about: What happens if/when Republicans get a large enough majority in the House and Senate to override Presidential vetos? When it comes to Congressional races, Democrats seem to take one step forward (Presidential years) and two steps back (mid-terms). If that trajectory continues, Republicans will continue to amass majorities that diminish Presidential powers. That is the downside of holding onto the White House for so long.
Currently the GOP has 247 seats in the House and 54 Senators, which is the largest Republican majority since 1929-31. Assuming that all members vote and there are no Democratic defectors, in order to overturn a presidential veto, the GOP would need 290 votes in the House and 67 votes in the Senate. That's 43 additional House seats and 13 more Senators. You'll have a heck of a time finding 43 more House seats and 13 more Senate seats that are competitive, let alone likely to flip. Aside from a handful of D senators still standing in red states, the low hanging fruit has already been harvested.
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Old 11-05-2015, 07:31 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,967 posts, read 15,408,519 times
Reputation: 3945
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Currently the GOP has 247 seats in the House and 54 Senators, which is the largest Republican majority since 1929-31. Assuming that all members vote and there are no Democratic defectors, in order to overturn a presidential veto, the GOP would need 290 votes in the House and 67 votes in the Senate. That's 43 additional House seats and 13 more Senators. You'll have a heck of a time finding 43 more House seats and 13 more Senate seats that are competitive, let alone likely to flip. Aside from a handful of D senators still standing in red states, the low hanging fruit has already been harvested.
Exactly while you can make an argument there might be a handful more potentially competitive seats, there aren't nearly enough for the GOP did have anything veto proof, even if they win everything potentially competitive. Not to mention next year is a Presidential year (which will have higher turnout that will help the Dems in the Congressional and Senate races) and the fact the GOP will have FAR MORE seats up in the Senate next year than the Dems.
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Old 11-05-2015, 07:59 AM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
12,300 posts, read 7,912,274 times
Reputation: 6464
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
I didn't say 2010 happened because of reistricting. I said the GOP's success in 2010 put them in control o redistricting which has helped them since then. Yes you are correct the Governor and Senate seats have nothing to do with redistricting. Turnout problems in midterm years have hurt the Democrats big time there, 2014 had the added caveat of the Democrats defending many more seats. The Democrats actually picked up Senate and Governor seats in higher turnout Presidential years so it will be interesting to see what happens with that next year. That is especially true with the Senate as it will be the inverse of 2014. The GOP will be the ones defending far more seats next year.
The senate election in 2016 isn't like 2014. What made 2014 special was the amount of open seats. Sitting senators are elected at a 90% clip. The senate won't swing back to democrats in the next election unless a bunch of republicans decide not to run again. The only open seat in a swing state is Nevada which is currently being held by a democrat. I think the republicans might lose 1 or 2 seats but will hold the majority.

Counting seats up for election is sophomoric political analysis.
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Old 11-05-2015, 08:06 AM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
13,377 posts, read 8,428,820 times
Reputation: 19467
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Exactly while you can make an argument there might be a handful more potentially competitive seats, there aren't nearly enough for the GOP did have anything veto proof, even if they win everything potentially competitive. Not to mention next year is a Presidential year (which will have higher turnout that will help the Dems in the Congressional and Senate races) and the fact the GOP will have FAR MORE seats up in the Senate next year than the Dems.
There may not be a higher turnout next year. Democrats have yet to find a candidate who can attract new voters.

Hillary is too well known to go around promising "change", and without the always touted "change" there will be no rush of young voters, nor a rush of poorly informed voters - both groups that vote Democratic.

I think most people can see that the GOP will not have a super majority in the legislature. The very best we can all hope for is to find someone who can work with both sides. Obama ruined his chances early on when he began mocking Republicans. It was, and is, a serious mistake.
And Hillary is already repeating the mistake. So, even if elected, she will fail.
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Old 11-05-2015, 08:10 AM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
12,300 posts, read 7,912,274 times
Reputation: 6464
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
There may not be a higher turnout next year. Democrats have yet to find a candidate who can attract new voters.

Hillary is too well known to go around promising "change", and without the always touted "change" there will be no rush of young voters, nor a rush of poorly informed voters - both groups that vote Democratic.

I think most people can see that the GOP will not have a super majority in the legislature. The very best we can all hope for is to find someone who can work with both sides. Obama ruined his chances early on when he began mocking Republicans. It was, and is, a serious mistake.
And Hillary is already repeating the mistake. So, even if elected, she will fail.
I agree. independents are not really liking Hillary and indelendents are crucial to winning the presidential election. I think turnout for democrats will be lower than 2012 and higher than 2012 for republicans.
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Old 11-05-2015, 08:17 AM
 
Location: Out in the Badlands
10,425 posts, read 8,733,037 times
Reputation: 7731
Because DC spending is out of control and a lost cause. People feel there may be still be some redemption at the state and local levels. Also not all states are flaming left wing.
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Old 11-05-2015, 08:24 AM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
13,377 posts, read 8,428,820 times
Reputation: 19467
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretzelogik View Post
Because DC spending is out of control and a lost cause. People feel there may be still be some redemption at the state and local levels. Also not all states are flaming left wing.
The tragedy is that while your statement, "not all states are flaming left wing", is absolutely true, it is also an unfortunate reality that most of the states with large numbers of electoral votes are left leaning.

The Pacific states and the Northeast states can make it tough for a Republican. But Reagan took them all. Or maybe, Carter lost them all....whatever.
So it is possible.
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Old 11-05-2015, 08:56 AM
 
3,639 posts, read 2,311,056 times
Reputation: 1946
Quote:
Originally Posted by shooting4life View Post
The senate election in 2016 isn't like 2014. What made 2014 special was the amount of open seats. Sitting senators are elected at a 90% clip. The senate won't swing back to democrats in the next election unless a bunch of republicans decide not to run again. The only open seat in a swing state is Nevada which is currently being held by a democrat. I think the republicans might lose 1 or 2 seats but will hold the majority.

Counting seats up for election is sophomoric political analysis.

And for those who noted that 2014 had many more dem seats up than Reps, 2018 is even worse, IIRC 25 D seats and 8-9 R seats. A Democrat POTUS victory in 2016 could result in even more GOP senate gains in 2018
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