Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 11-05-2015, 09:01 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,157 posts, read 19,402,277 times
Reputation: 5285

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by shooting4life View Post
The senate election in 2016 isn't like 2014. What made 2014 special was the amount of open seats. Sitting senators are elected at a 90% clip. The senate won't swing back to democrats in the next election unless a bunch of republicans decide not to run again. The only open seat in a swing state is Nevada which is currently being held by a democrat. I think the republicans might lose 1 or 2 seats but will hold the majority.

Counting seats up for election is sophomoric political analysis.

There are currently 5 open seats. Reid in Nevada, Boxer in California and Mikulski inMaryland for the Democrats, Coats in Indiana and Rubio in Florida for the GOP. There might be a 6th depending on what happens in Louisiana's Governor's race, as Vitter is facing a runoff. There are likely more to come. It is the sheer # of seats that are up for the GOP. They have 24 seats up, the Democrats have only 10, and a bunch of those seats were ones they narrowly won in 2010 and in swing or Democratic leaning states.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 11-05-2015, 09:05 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,157 posts, read 19,402,277 times
Reputation: 5285
Quote:
Originally Posted by armourereric View Post
And for those who noted that 2014 had many more dem seats up than Reps, 2018 is even worse, IIRC 25 D seats and 8-9 R seats. A Democrat POTUS victory in 2016 could result in even more GOP senate gains in 2018
We could see several more wave elections in a row in the Senate, especially considering that the GOP will be defending far more seats in higher turnout Presidential years and the Dems far more in midterms. Obviously it could change barring those running/ elected for other offices, vacancies for other reasons, etc, but as of now

2016 Cycle 24 Republican, 10 Democratic

2018 cycle 25 Democratic , 8 Republican

2020 cycle 22 Republican, 11 Democratic
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-05-2015, 09:12 AM
 
4,120 posts, read 6,592,494 times
Reputation: 2289
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
There are currently 5 open seats. Reid in Nevada, Boxer in California and Mikulski inMaryland for the Democrats, Coats in Indiana and Rubio in Florida for the GOP. There might be a 6th depending on what happens in Louisiana's Governor's race, as Vitter is facing a runoff. There are likely more to come. It is the sheer # of seats that are up for the GOP. They have 24 seats up, the Democrats have only 10, and a bunch of those seats were ones they narrowly won in 2010 and in swing or Democratic leaning states.
Senate seats likely to flip..

To the Dems.

1.) Wisconsin Russ Feingold is leading Johnson by almost 10 points in every poll.
2.) Illinois Kirk is gone.
3.) Florida Open seat in a presidential year. Florida will go democratic by about 2% in the presidential election due to the influx of 300k Puerto Ricans over the last 5 years. How will this translate to the Senate?
4.) Ohio Portman is trailing in every poll from 5 to 9%, but is still raising huge money over the former Governor Strickland. If the Dems win this race then it's a rout for the republicans on the night as they will loose the Senate and the Presidency.
5.) New Hampshire Dead even race, but the Dems got their women to run in this race.
6.) Pennsylvania... Tooney is very conservative but the Dems don't have a great candidate in this one and Tooney is leading in all polls. Probably their best shot at holding a democratic leaning seat.

Republicans
1.) Colorado is their only hope this year besides holding court.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-05-2015, 09:21 AM
 
16,406 posts, read 8,488,319 times
Reputation: 19254
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dequindre View Post
All of this also brings in the question of why polling is so inaccurate. Polls from just a few days ago had Jack Conway winning the Governor's race by 3%-9% of the vote. Bevin won by a total of 9%. A similar occurance took place in Maryland last year. Now-Governor Larry Hogan, who was expected to lose by a margin of around 9%, yet ended up winning by 4% in very heavily blue Maryland. Hogan's victory was especially impressive given his campaign was always considered a long-shot. Polling, as it seems, is starting to consistently skew toward Democrats.
Polls in many cases are conducted by the media, and we all know the media is skewed heavily toward (D's). So they can word questions certain ways, be selective in the areas (i.e. desired demographics) they poll in/send to, etc.
It is not only here in America, but look at the UK. They were saying the Tories were toast with Cameron on his way to defeat. Instead he was re-elected by a decent margin.
I suspect it is an effort to discourage voters who support conservatives from coming out since they wish to give the illusion that it is in the bag already for the (D's).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-05-2015, 09:35 AM
 
12,638 posts, read 8,933,847 times
Reputation: 7458
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
Senate seats likely to flip..

To the Dems.

1.) Wisconsin Russ Feingold is leading Johnson by almost 10 points in every poll.
2.) Illinois Kirk is gone.
3.) Florida Open seat in a presidential year. Florida will go democratic by about 2% in the presidential election due to the influx of 300k Puerto Ricans over the last 5 years. How will this translate to the Senate?
4.) Ohio Portman is trailing in every poll from 5 to 9%, but is still raising huge money over the former Governor Strickland. If the Dems win this race then it's a rout for the republicans on the night as they will loose the Senate and the Presidency.
5.) New Hampshire Dead even race, but the Dems got their women to run in this race.
6.) Pennsylvania... Tooney is very conservative but the Dems don't have a great candidate in this one and Tooney is leading in all polls. Probably their best shot at holding a democratic leaning seat.

Republicans
1.) Colorado is their only hope this year besides holding court.
Reminds me of the loony predictions about how the Democrats would gain Senate seats in the 2014 election. Pure comedy gold!

Keep Hope and Change alive, guys! LOL.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-05-2015, 09:47 AM
 
4,120 posts, read 6,592,494 times
Reputation: 2289
Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveToRow View Post
Reminds me of the loony predictions about how the Democrats would gain Senate seats in the 2014 election. Pure comedy gold!

Keep Hope and Change alive, guys! LOL.
No comedy there, just the facts. Find me any facts or poll #'s that counter what I said.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-05-2015, 09:51 AM
 
78,016 posts, read 60,232,230 times
Reputation: 49415
Quote:
Originally Posted by armourereric View Post
And for those who noted that 2014 had many more dem seats up than Reps, 2018 is even worse, IIRC 25 D seats and 8-9 R seats. A Democrat POTUS victory in 2016 could result in even more GOP senate gains in 2018
There are roughly 5 of the 34 senate seats that look to be up for grabs. For example, nobody is going to unseat Boxer in CA or Murkowski in AK so simplistically pointing to 24 rep seats up is utterly meaningless.

These are the 5 seats that by polling consensus are reasonably "in play"

Wi, NV, NH, FL, IL - 4 rep, 1 dem.

That's enough to make the Senate 50-49-1

Thinking that the dems are going to magically unseat enough reps to regain control....that's extremely wishful thinking.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-05-2015, 10:01 AM
 
4,120 posts, read 6,592,494 times
Reputation: 2289
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
There are roughly 5 of the 34 senate seats that look to be up for grabs. For example, nobody is going to unseat Boxer in CA or Murkowski in AK so simplistically pointing to 24 rep seats up is utterly meaningless.

These are the 5 seats that by polling consensus are reasonably "in play"

Wi, NV, NH, FL, IL - 4 rep, 1 dem.

That's enough to make the Senate 50-49-1

Thinking that the dems are going to magically unseat enough reps to regain control....that's extremely wishful thinking.
I agree with 95% of what you said except Ohio is at this point likely to flip. Strickland is a popular former governor who is leading Portman by 8 to 12 points in every poll. The only advantage Portman has is money to burn. If Hillary is the candidate people have to remember her Husband carried Ohio twice and people in the state remember the 90's as a good time with pay increases and very low unemployment.

Also the house is so Gerrymandered it will not change hands until 2022.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-05-2015, 10:06 AM
 
12,638 posts, read 8,933,847 times
Reputation: 7458
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
I agree with 95% of what you said except Ohio is at this point likely to flip. Strickland is a popular former governor who is leading Portman by 8 to 12 points in every poll. The only advantage Portman has is money to burn. If Hillary is the candidate people have to remember her Husband carried Ohio twice and people in the state remember the 90's as a good time with pay increases and very low unemployment.

Also the house is so Gerrymandered it will not change hands until 2022.
Strangely enough, Conway was leading Bevin big in the polls before he lost by 9 points. The notion that you can proclaim a Senate race decided based upon polling data a year before the election is laughable and makes you look more ridiculous than usual.

If the GOP nominates a Presidential candidate who carries Ohio, then Portman is very likely to retain his Ohio Senate seat.

And I hate to break it to you, but Hillary isn't her husband.

Also, the topic of the thread is why the Democrats have been getting absolutely destroyed at the State and local level for the past eight years. You predicting a Senate takeover by the Democrats in 2016 really has zero to do with the thread topic.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-05-2015, 10:09 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,157 posts, read 19,402,277 times
Reputation: 5285
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
There are roughly 5 of the 34 senate seats that look to be up for grabs. For example, nobody is going to unseat Boxer in CA or Murkowski in AK so simplistically pointing to 24 rep seats up is utterly meaningless.

These are the 5 seats that by polling consensus are reasonably "in play"

Wi, NV, NH, FL, IL - 4 rep, 1 dem.

That's enough to make the Senate 50-49-1

Thinking that the dems are going to magically unseat enough reps to regain control....that's extremely wishful thinking.
Pennsylvania and Ohio are in play as well. As far as AK goes, I would agree, if she is the nominee, but keep in mind Murkowski won last time as a Write In after losing in the GOP Primary, and the GOP have lost several seats they had or could have won as a result of someone unelectable winning a Primary. Any candidates retiring between now and then is always something to look at as well.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:02 AM.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top