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Old 11-06-2015, 11:03 AM
 
4,047 posts, read 2,693,829 times
Reputation: 1197

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Treehorn_II View Post
I see. A tangible development, but this evolved from a discussion about the Democrat's electoral advantage.

It raises a good point, though - many people have a bit of an electoral "cognative dissonance" when trying to reconcile local politics with Presidential elections. Almost everywhere outside of Oklahoma (and perhaps there as well), demographic trends STRONGLY favor Democrats.


There was a fairly good piece about this in the British press today......

I've Seen America's Future - and it's not Republican (Observer)
Let me counter from an article with a Liberal's best friend, (American) Nate Silver:

There Is No ‘Blue Wall’ | FiveThirtyEight
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:10 AM
 
3,481 posts, read 5,111,527 times
Reputation: 1544
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dequindre View Post
Let me counter from an article with a Liberal's best friend, (American) Nate Silver:

There Is No ‘Blue Wall’ | FiveThirtyEight
1st Nate Silver is a math nerd who isn't a liberal.
2nd If you read his argument, the popular vote would have to be almost 50-50 like Bush in 2000. This isn't happening, I really expect the same results as the 2012 Obama vs. Romney.


One key cavet is the fact that Obama was black, maybe 5 to 15% of old white democrats wouldn't vote for him because of this. A lot of old time D's from the south have sat out two presidential elections.
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:14 AM
 
Location: 20 years from now
5,520 posts, read 5,719,425 times
Reputation: 3448
Quote:
Originally Posted by Treehorn_II View Post
This is a huge problem for the GOP, and is never honestly answered by the morons who listen to talk radio. Quite simply, the GOP MUST win Ohio, Florida and Virginia and North Carolina, then either get Colorado or Nevada to eeke out a victory. Of these 6 states, they have gone 1 for 12 in the past two elections - which is not good. Additionally, the Demographics of Florida and Nevada are making them "lean Democrat" states, and doubling down on an unelectable "Principled Conservative" will not carry the day. It's just math. The map looks like this.....
Simple mimic the Bush trail in the 2004 election




Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 286[2] 251[2][3] States carried 31 19 + DC Popular vote 62,040,610 59,028,444 Percentage 50.7% 48.3%
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:14 AM
 
2,210 posts, read 1,128,935 times
Reputation: 581
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
Best joke of the day. Both are solid blue states.
You need to look at polls.

Carson is leading Clinton by 6 points in Michigan.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Michigan: Carson vs. Clinton

Even Fionrina is leading her by 1 point in Michigan.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Michigan: Fiorina vs. Clinton

In Pennsylvania, multiple Republicans are leading over her there.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Rubio vs. Clinton
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:18 AM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
46,053 posts, read 29,538,049 times
Reputation: 7830
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
In all fairness, they were a part of Virginia, but that was prior to 1792.
Haha, touche.
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:20 AM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
46,053 posts, read 29,538,049 times
Reputation: 7830
Quote:
Originally Posted by itshim View Post
Simple mimic the Bush trail in the 2004 election




Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 286[2] 251[2][3] States carried 31 19 + DC Popular vote 62,040,610 59,028,444 Percentage 50.7% 48.3%
Good luck with that.
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:33 AM
 
4,176 posts, read 5,485,195 times
Reputation: 1849
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
Republicans, answer me how do the dems loose with the nation being more polarized and Red becoming Redder and Blue becoming Bluer?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...d0c_story.html

Democrats have a built-in edge in the Electoral College. But it guarantees them nothing for 2016

1 there aren't a hell of a lot of "swing states." Giving that extra Nebraska vote to the GOP, all that remains are 10 states, totaling 116 electoral votes, that have offered their electoral votes to both parties since 2000.

2 the Republicans have to win the outsized majority of those "swing" electoral votes to win the presidency. If the Democrats can hold onto just 24 percent of the electoral votes "in play," they win the White House.
It's hard to deny that, all else being equal, the (D) start out with an advantage. That said, I'm not sure all else will be equal, as the GOP has been doing very well up and down the ballot (even in this year's off-year elections). In addition, HRC is particularly annoying/rephrehensible, so she may not get the legions of followers that Obama got.

As much as I hate to admit it, HRC does have the edge in 2016. That said, she's far from unbeatable. The difference is that, even in a strong GOP year, she's unlikely to be that far from 270. Romney barely broke 200 EV and McCain was way below 200. HRC will likely receive more EV than Romney even if she loses.
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:39 AM
 
Location: Silicon Valley, CA
9,876 posts, read 6,622,462 times
Reputation: 6279
Quote:
Originally Posted by rbohm View Post
any particular condiments you prefer while eating that shoe??



that was reagan v dukakis in 1984.
No. Reagan vs. Mondale in 1984. Unless you're being facetious.
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:59 AM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
22,896 posts, read 16,281,876 times
Reputation: 12816
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daywalk View Post
You need to look at polls.

Carson is leading Clinton by 6 points in Michigan.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Michigan: Carson vs. Clinton

Even Fionrina is leading her by 1 point in Michigan.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Michigan: Fiorina vs. Clinton

In Pennsylvania, multiple Republicans are leading over her there.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Rubio vs. Clinton
A year out?

Pointless.

OP, i agree with your thesis in general, but anything is possible.
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Old 11-06-2015, 12:10 PM
 
32,475 posts, read 26,356,312 times
Reputation: 19123
Quote:
Originally Posted by silverkris View Post
No. Reagan vs. Mondale in 1984. Unless you're being facetious.
keep up, i was already corrected about that a few pages back, and i acknowledged my mistake and the correction.

in the end we do not know, a year out, how the general election will play out until it does. and we dont even have the nominees from each party yet, so how can anyone say which party will win the white house in 2016? too much can happen between now and then.
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