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Old 11-06-2015, 01:07 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
12,289 posts, read 7,965,558 times
Reputation: 6464

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tinawina View Post
I agree that Hillary is quite vulnerable and that no one can count on certain states voting a particular way. The right person can swing some of these states in their direction. Hillary absolutely, positively can be beat.

What I'm not sure of is that Republicans are going to put up a candidate with that kind of mainstream appeal. Right now there is tremendous pressure for all the candidates to swing hard to the right in order to win primaries, and they might not be able to pull off a swing back to the middle when the time comes. Someone with enough charisma and talent can pull that off.

In the end though, a year is a LONG time in politics. A turn in the economy or a terrorist attack or a major scandal or an ill timed goof can change everything drastically. There is jut no way to predict at this stage of the game.
Sanders is doing the same but even more so by pushing Hillary left.
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Old 11-06-2015, 01:08 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
12,289 posts, read 7,965,558 times
Reputation: 6464
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Nate Silver?

He also said Trump wouldn't last.
Everyone said trump wouldn't last.

Does someone have to be 100% accurate in everything they do?
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Old 11-06-2015, 01:10 PM
 
Location: Long Island, NY
19,717 posts, read 11,569,359 times
Reputation: 5613
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daywalk View Post
Michigan and Pennsylvania are TOSS UPS at the moment.
Michigan and Pennsylvania haven't voted Republican in a presidential race since 1988. They always seem toss ups but are rather dependable Democratic states.
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Old 11-06-2015, 01:12 PM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
66,547 posts, read 33,820,661 times
Reputation: 14260
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vector1 View Post
Philly has changed so much that many of it's born and bred residents would not recognize their old neighborhoods.
It has become a very different city with urban decay, immoral, crime ridden, etc.
Even the churches who try to help the poor are going under because there is no community support.

By and large the urban population centers will continue to want more government intervention in their lives to try and control the mayhem that will ensue. So while PA might very well vote (D) more than (R) because of that, I'd bet it looks like most other states that are predominately red, except in small blue pockets of the urban jungles.
Even FL is mostly red, but the tri-county are of S FL along with a couple of other areas is enough to turn the tide. That is evident not only by the colors on the map, but most of the state legislature and governor has been (R) for a very long time.

`

Texas is so big... Just think if Austin, Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and El Paso, were in a state the size of Pennsylvania. It too would be blue, with approximately 17 million living in those Democrat ruled regions, in a sea of red and that doesn't include the blue Rio Grande Valley.
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Old 11-06-2015, 01:18 PM
 
45,252 posts, read 17,960,183 times
Reputation: 18946
Quote:
Originally Posted by shooting4life View Post
Everyone said trump wouldn't last.

Does someone have to be 100% accurate in everything they do?
Your question is a logical fallacy argument.

We are talking about Nate Silver and his election predictions. He has been put up as someone how can predict elections, yet his prediction about Trump, is 100% wrong. Thus if he is wrong about that, then there absolutely no reason to think that he will be right about anything.

I realize that Democrat partisans are grasping at any straw of hope they can, but the fact of the matter is they will nominate someone who most of America does not like. A disaster in the making for them. Dreaming about past elections and thinking it will continue to be the same, is just a symptom of that.
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Old 11-06-2015, 01:22 PM
 
5,938 posts, read 5,438,083 times
Reputation: 10587
Quote:
Originally Posted by shooting4life View Post
Sanders is doing the same but even more so by pushing Hillary left.
He is pushing her left but it's unlikely to have the same effect for her. It doesn't look like she's going to have to do much to beat him. He'll become a non issue early on.

Her Bernie problem is more about securing turnout among his base next November, which skews younger.

Income equality is their big issue and she can speak to that without alienating too much of the middle.
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Old 11-06-2015, 01:27 PM
 
Location: Pasadena, CA
9,832 posts, read 7,679,999 times
Reputation: 6288
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Your question is a logical fallacy argument.

We are talking about Nate Silver and his election predictions. He has been put up as someone how can predict elections, yet his prediction about Trump, is 100% wrong. Thus if he is wrong about that, then there absolutely no reason to think that he will be right about anything.

I realize that Democrat partisans are grasping at any straw of hope they can, but the fact of the matter is they will nominate someone who most of America does not like. A disaster in the making for them. Dreaming about past elections and thinking it will continue to be the same, is just a symptom of that.
Silver has been proven wrong a year before the election? Nice try. Trump has to win the nomination (LOL) for that happen.

Trump is the least likable candidate of them all, on top of being an ill-prepared, unlettered oaf who can barely articulate his worldview to his adoring audience. Lucky for him, they're too busy dreaming about a giant wall (paid for by Mexico) to notice.

"An 'extremely credible source' has called my office and told me that Barack Obama's birth certificate is a fraud." - Trump the Clown
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Old 11-06-2015, 02:08 PM
 
3,481 posts, read 5,111,527 times
Reputation: 1544
Quote:
Originally Posted by RaymondChandlerLives View Post
Silver has been proven wrong a year before the election? Nice try. Trump has to win the nomination (LOL) for that happen.

Trump is the least likable candidate of them all, on top of being an ill-prepared, unlettered oaf who can barely articulate his worldview to his adoring audience. Lucky for him, they're too busy dreaming about a giant wall (paid for by Mexico) to notice.

"An 'extremely credible source' has called my office and told me that Barack Obama's birth certificate is a fraud." - Trump the Clown
Trump has several qualities the other republicans candidates don't have.

1.) Dude is a quick thinking on his feet, able to go for the jugular on anybody approaching him or coming at him. Right now he is a baddest ass dog in the room and he has taken enough meat off of the other pretenders they don't know how to approach him. Ask Rubio about approaching the big dog, he is in the corner licking his wounds. Now the guy is going to fight the credit card issue for the next 6 months. Donald and everybody else will eat his ass with the fact he cannot keep his cards straight.
2.) He knows his audience and he is playing it up to them. Telling them sh$t that nobody else will, such as I will throw 11 million illegals out of the country withing 6 months of me becoming president & I'll face Putin down and put his Ruskie ass in it's place. The loonies are eating this ship up.
3.) Outsider status as a billionaire business man. For all white collar republicans who want to make it big this is the ultimate street cred.
4.) Don't **** with the Donald, and I can't address this enough, once he smells blood he goes for it and the other candidates are jumping into the feed frenzy. Rubio will not be able to get over the credit card issue this election, I am eagerly awaiting Trump and the Dr. discussing the history of the Pyramids, that'll be fascinating.
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Old 11-06-2015, 02:12 PM
 
45,252 posts, read 17,960,183 times
Reputation: 18946
Quote:
Originally Posted by RaymondChandlerLives View Post
Silver has been proven wrong a year before the election? Nice try. Trump has to win the nomination (LOL) for that happen.

Trump is the least likable candidate of them all, on top of being an ill-prepared, unlettered oaf who can barely articulate his worldview to his adoring audience. Lucky for him, they're too busy dreaming about a giant wall (paid for by Mexico) to notice.

"An 'extremely credible source' has called my office and told me that Barack Obama's birth certificate is a fraud." - Trump the Clown
Yep. Go look at what he said about Trump. He's now back tracking as hard as he can.

Never claimed that Trump will win the nomination. The people get a chance to vote for a candidate in the GOP primaries. Totally unlike the DNC where the SuperDelegates have already picked King Hillary as nominee. I can't imagine why anyone would support this sort of nonsense. Of course Mr. Silver ignores this as well.

As far as being liked, the polls speak for themselves. Get back to us when any other candidate can fill an arena with 10s of thousands.
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Old 11-07-2015, 03:41 AM
 
Location: Long Island, NY
19,717 posts, read 11,569,359 times
Reputation: 5613
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
...
I realize that Democrat partisans are grasping at any straw of hope they can, but the fact of the matter is they will nominate someone who most of America does not like. A disaster in the making for them. Dreaming about past elections and thinking it will continue to be the same, is just a symptom of that.
Ironic. You mention "they will nominate someone who most of America does not like" while you support Trump, who most of America does not like.
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