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Old 11-09-2015, 04:22 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
46,053 posts, read 29,554,726 times
Reputation: 7830

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Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp View Post
Yes you do.
No, no I don't, that is a different conversation you are having with someone.....either that or you are just trying to deflect from the one we are having. Regardless, I am not interested in your silly game....
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Old 11-09-2015, 05:09 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
21,509 posts, read 14,408,525 times
Reputation: 15903
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dhult View Post
Having someone on the ticket that wins statewide races in the toss up states or having someone on the ticket in a blue state that has support statewide that can turn a blue state red.

Lack of enthusiasm and low turn out for the democrats. Virginia just had a significant republican win.

During the same time period you listed the Democrats are down to what 17 Governors? That is a significant decrees. 33 Republican Governors shows that the Republicans can carry Blue States. If they have one of those Republicans in a key state even in a VP position they have the ability to succeed.
None of that applies to the election of a President. If it did, Romney would have won 2012. The 2010 was the strongest reaction to Barack Obama of all that followed, and 2014 was a reaction against his second win.

Exactly the same occurred in reverse with GW Bush in the 2004 election. The 2000 tossup was abnormally close and a true aberration in modern American political history.

The numbers remain solidly in the Democrat's favor. I tend to think Trump is the only candidate who could change that, but he's a bet on a very wild card for either party.
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Old 11-09-2015, 05:30 PM
 
3,481 posts, read 5,115,743 times
Reputation: 1544
Quote:
Originally Posted by rbohm View Post
again your assumption is that the democrat candidate, regardless of who it is, automatically starts with 240 electoral votes, and that just isnt the case. do you really think the democrats can run anyone and win? sorry not going to happen.

you cannot take things like this for granted as it will come back and bite you. for instance while california might be safely democrat, this election, right now, new york and PA are not, depending on who the republican nominee is. so your premise is a false on, thus your question is essentially unanswerable.
are you out in Colorado smoking some Rocky Mountain high?

NY and PA going republican.
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Old 11-09-2015, 05:36 PM
 
2,212 posts, read 1,130,063 times
Reputation: 581
Minnesota is turning red according to new set of sureveyusa polls.
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Old 11-09-2015, 08:58 PM
 
10,819 posts, read 8,075,211 times
Reputation: 17034
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rico Valencia View Post
I think Trump will do extremely well with minority voters, particularly African Americans. African Americans in states like CA and TX have been absolutely decimated by NAFTA with the loss of high paying manufacturing jobs
.
Can't speak for CA, but despite our bone-headed tea party governor trying to gum up the works, Texas continues to reap economic benefits from NAFTA:

Gov. Greg Abbott to lead Texas delegation on Mexico trip to improve relations | | Dallas Morning News
Quote:
Mexico is Texas’ largest export market—buying over $100 billion a year from Texas companies. Combined, the two sides trade over $200 billion, double the trade between Mexico and the United Kingdom. The U.S. Commerce department estimates this trade supports over 300,000 Texan jobs.
Richard Parker: Texas' new war with Mexico brings political, economic costs | Dallas Morning News
Quote:
Nearly 70 percent of NAFTA truck traffic from Mexico passes first through Texas. So does nearly 90 percent of rail traffic. Laredo is the largest inland port in the nation. No state has benefited more handsomely from NAFTA than Texas, which, in turn, exports $300 billion in goods per year, with one-third going to the largest trading partner: Mexico.
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Old 11-09-2015, 10:23 PM
 
32,501 posts, read 26,381,433 times
Reputation: 19153
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
are you out in Colorado smoking some Rocky Mountain high?

NY and PA going republican.
you are making assumptions again. sorry i dont live in colorado, and wouldnt touch the stuff if i did. as for a republican winning new york and PA, it has happened before, and possibly will happen again. i think trump can pull that off. but again the election is not for another year, and anything can happen in that time.
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Old 11-09-2015, 10:51 PM
 
Location: MPLS
752 posts, read 449,651 times
Reputation: 458
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
"Gerrymandering has been referred to the practice of "packing and cracking"; "packing" as many of your opponents supporters in to as few districts as possible while "cracking" or spreading your own supporters over more districts to control a legislative body. Since Democrats tend to settle in dense urban areas while a Republicans tend to be rural based, the base of the parties own living choices effectively gerrymander before a politician does anything."
You're preaching to the choir, hombre. My point is that in Pennsylvania, in particular, it's much easier to pack Democratic districts than it is to crack them. Here's an example of a relatively pedestrian 11-7 D-R map someone created using Dave's Redistricting:



Closeups of some of the 'snakes':





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Old 11-09-2015, 10:53 PM
 
3,673 posts, read 2,336,955 times
Reputation: 1973
FWIW, my preferred election prediction site has the Dems starting with a 200-170 advantage
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Old 11-09-2015, 10:55 PM
 
18,942 posts, read 7,363,495 times
Reputation: 8079
Quote:
Originally Posted by banjomike View Post
None of that applies to the election of a President. If it did, Romney would have won 2012. The 2010 was the strongest reaction to Barack Obama of all that followed, and 2014 was a reaction against his second win.

Exactly the same occurred in reverse with GW Bush in the 2004 election. The 2000 tossup was abnormally close and a true aberration in modern American political history.

The numbers remain solidly in the Democrat's favor. I tend to think Trump is the only candidate who could change that, but he's a bet on a very wild card for either party.
Bingo; off year races have no carryover affect to POTUS races, since the former is a far more homogenous and smaller sample, vs the big tent, big turnout only POTUS brings.
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Old 11-09-2015, 10:56 PM
 
3,673 posts, read 2,336,955 times
Reputation: 1973
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daywalk View Post
Minnesota is turning red according to new set of sureveyusa polls.
Is Al Freakin up for reelection in 2016?
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