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Old 07-11-2019, 11:04 AM
 
1,322 posts, read 852,856 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMO45 View Post
Ohio is gone as is Iowa. Some polls suggest Iowa is in play but I doubt it. The last 4-6 years itís been heavily trending red. In addition due to changes in demographics and population age Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are becoming more red
Wisconsin and Michigan Democratic governor candidates won in 2018.
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Old 07-11-2019, 11:52 AM
 
628 posts, read 188,400 times
Reputation: 199
Quote:
Originally Posted by fusillirob1983 View Post
Wisconsin and Michigan Democratic governor candidates won in 2018.
Wisconsin was by a nose, if that. Michigan isnít going red anytime soon consistently but itís headed that way. The thing to watch in Wisconsin is Evers has gotten on peopleís bad side real fast. If he keeps up those shenanigans that State is at high risk of going to Trump again
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Old 07-11-2019, 12:57 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,567 posts, read 749,380 times
Reputation: 1674
Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMO45 View Post
Minnesota is definitely a long shot. Iím not sure though how much some of the stuff from Ilhan Omar could cause some Indys or centrist Dems to stay home or vote for Trump though. Itís part of the reason I expect Wisconsin and New Mexico to possibly be in play as well. The two recently elected governors there have gotten into trouble early with a bunch of the electorate and Evers barely won as it was
I don't think voters typically make their presidential election choices based on how they feel about their governors and congressmen. Kentucky's Matt Bevin (R) is just about the nation's least popular governor, but Trump will win the state in a landslide regardless. Wisconsin is certainly in play and should not be taken for granted by either side. New Mexico is not demographically favorable to Trump at all, and he'll need to be well ahead nationally to pick it up. As for Minnesota - Ilhan Omar's predecessor in Congress was Keith Ellison, who also had his share of controversy, and is now their state Attorney General.
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Old 07-11-2019, 05:37 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
21,482 posts, read 14,398,691 times
Reputation: 15888
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redcity80 View Post
You win Ohio, you probably win the election
In a tight race, this is sometimes true. Ohio is just big enough to tip the scales.
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Old 07-11-2019, 05:50 PM
 
18,891 posts, read 7,356,703 times
Reputation: 8074
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redcity80 View Post
Yep, rust belt is turning reliably Republican slowly, especially with the modern Democrat party
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Old Today, 07:34 AM
 
19,163 posts, read 12,234,773 times
Reputation: 10517
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
Republicans, answer me how do the dems loose with the nation being more polarized and Red becoming Redder and Blue becoming Bluer?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...d0c_story.html

Democrats have a built-in edge in the Electoral College. But it guarantees them nothing for 2016

1 there aren't a hell of a lot of "swing states." Giving that extra Nebraska vote to the GOP, all that remains are 10 states, totaling 116 electoral votes, that have offered their electoral votes to both parties since 2000.

2 the Republicans have to win the outsized majority of those "swing" electoral votes to win the presidency. If the Democrats can hold onto just 24 percent of the electoral votes "in play," they win the White House.


The same way they lost in 2016.


With Omar and AOC as the new face of the dem party, Trump will win by a much wider margin. Also, the dem candidates are actually weaker than Hillary, which is amazing in of itself.
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Old Today, 08:49 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
72,026 posts, read 83,688,530 times
Reputation: 41812
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
Republicans, answer me how do the dems loose with the nation being more polarized and Red becoming Redder and Blue becoming Bluer?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...d0c_story.html

Democrats have a built-in edge in the Electoral College. But it guarantees them nothing for 2016

1 there aren't a hell of a lot of "swing states." Giving that extra Nebraska vote to the GOP, all that remains are 10 states, totaling 116 electoral votes, that have offered their electoral votes to both parties since 2000.

2 the Republicans have to win the outsized majority of those "swing" electoral votes to win the presidency. If the Democrats can hold onto just 24 percent of the electoral votes "in play," they win the White House.
and of course what we read in the Wash Post is the final word, right?
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Old Today, 08:51 AM
 
Location: Upstate NY
35,562 posts, read 10,531,898 times
Reputation: 33684
Since this thread was started in 2015, lol I'll simply answer the OP's question by referring him or her to the 2016 election.

Yeesh.
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