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If the 2016 presidential election, a year from now today, ends up too close to call, and a recount having to happen, plus the U.S. Supreme Court having to get involved, what would it mean for the U.S, politics in general and the way how the world looks at the U.S.?
the chances of a repeat of 2000 are slim. What would the world think of us? Nothing different than they do now: it would simply be another example of our country having 2 good choices; I prefer to see close races than one sided ones. I doubt this wlll be one sided, but who wins is still up in the air. Heck, Republicans have so many good candidates to choose from, it is likely no one will have sewed up the nomination prior to the convention. Too bad the Dems don't have as exciting race.
I have a feeling that this election will result in a big win one way or the other. We're simply too polarized politically to have such close elections right now.
I have a feeling that this election will result in a big win one way or the other. We're simply too polarized politically to have such close elections right now.
How does polarization increase the chance for a big win? As we become more polarized there are fewer voters whose allegiance is up for grabs. A case in point is Florida. Steve Schale who was Obama's 2008 state campaign manager was quoted as saying that in Florida, both sides were fighting over only about 5% of the voters. Both sides have a rock solid base of 46 to 48 percent of the vote nationally, leaving maybe 6 to 8% nationally that really shop around. Obama's win in 2008 was probably about as big a win that is achievable now, and it was only 7.26%; a solid win, but far less than a landslide.
How does polarization increase the chance for a big win? As we become more polarized there are fewer voters whose allegiance is up for grabs. A case in point is Florida. Steve Schale who was Obama's 2008 state campaign manager was quoted as saying that in Florida, both sides were fighting over only about 5% of the voters. Both sides have a rock solid base of 46 to 48 percent of the vote nationally, leaving maybe 6 to 8% nationally that really shop around. Obama's win in 2008 was probably about as big a win that is achievable now, and it was only 7.26%; a solid win, but far less than a landslide.
When was the last time that we've seen a close election nationally? 2000? Elections nowadays, whether they are Presidential or mid-term, show a very sharp turn in public opinion. If the last 8 years has taught us anything, it's that one party wins big, one party loses big (when taking into account all political races).
When was the last time that we've seen a close election nationally? 2000? Elections nowadays, whether they are Presidential or mid-term, show a very sharp turn in public opinion. If the last 8 years has taught us anything, it's that one party wins big, one party loses big (when taking into account all political races).
I guess we have different opinions on what constitutes a big win. Here's the margins in the last 6 POTUS elections:
That's 2 significant wins but less than a landslide and 4 fairly close elections by historical standards. There hasn't been a true landslide since RR won in 1984 by 18.2%. We used to have enough moderate or unaligned voters to swing elections by tremendous amounts. In 1964 LBJ beat Goldwater by about 22.5%. Just 8 years later Nixon beat McGovern by 23%. Almost a 46% shift from one party to the other with only 1 election in between. Compared to swings like that, our recent POTUS elections have been fairly predictable because there are comparatively fewer swing voters than in the past.
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