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Old 11-19-2015, 11:59 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
37,794 posts, read 40,990,020 times
Reputation: 62169

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Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative

Florida is Winner Take All

Likely Republican primary voters in Florida

margin of error of +/-5.6 percent (Democrats) and +/-5.2 percent (Republicans)

Trump 35.9%
Rubio 18.4%
Carson 14.5%
Cruz 10%
Bush 8.9%
Paul 4.1%
Kasich 3.0%

Everyone else less than 3%

Clinton 65.5%
Sanders 22.4%
O'Malley 4.0%

Polls : Florida Atlantic University - College of Business

Fla poll: Trump 36%, Rubio 18%, Carson 15%, Cruz 10%, Bush 9% | Tampa Bay Times

This is a swing state.

"Clinton continues to trail in head-to-head matchups with the GOP frontrunners, with Carson holding the biggest margin at 9.7 points (50.2 percent to 40.5 percent). Trump leads Clinton by 8.7 points (49.2 percent to 40.5 percent)"

 
Old 11-19-2015, 12:07 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,072 posts, read 51,199,205 times
Reputation: 28313
Carson is in free fall just about everywhere. That is to be expected as it is a mystery to me how that guy ever caught on in the first place. Looks like Rubio could be the ultimate winner for Rs at this point, but Bush is still hanging in there and that is all he needs to do for right now.
 
Old 11-19-2015, 12:42 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
37,794 posts, read 40,990,020 times
Reputation: 62169
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Carson is in free fall just about everywhere. That is to be expected as it is a mystery to me how that guy ever caught on in the first place. Looks like Rubio could be the ultimate winner for Rs at this point, but Bush is still hanging in there and that is all he needs to do for right now.
I just posted the Bloomberg poll. Carson is in better shape than you think when you look at the qualities people like best about him compared to Trump. It shows he has the social conservative evangelical voters. Because of the primary schedule for voting, that voting demographic is going to be voting first because of Iowa and the Southeast.
 
Old 11-19-2015, 12:55 PM
 
Location: Florida
33,547 posts, read 18,143,148 times
Reputation: 15525
Rubio is easy on illegals.. don't want another good polished speaker.. Ugh.. Rubio is easily bought.. he doesn't have money so it will look really good to him to do favors..
 
Old 11-19-2015, 01:02 PM
 
79,913 posts, read 44,167,332 times
Reputation: 17209
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Carson is in free fall just about everywhere. That is to be expected as it is a mystery to me how that guy ever caught on in the first place. Looks like Rubio could be the ultimate winner for Rs at this point, but Bush is still hanging in there and that is all he needs to do for right now.
He was never up there. It was nothing more than the media trying to give someone some traction just as Fiorina was before him.
 
Old 11-19-2015, 01:07 PM
Status: "everybody getting reported now.." (set 17 days ago)
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,543 posts, read 16,528,077 times
Reputation: 6029
Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp View Post
He was never up there. It was nothing more than the media trying to give someone some traction just as Fiorina was before him.
Both Fiornia and Carson had legitimate bumps in polling, the problem is that neither could sustain it.

If I was a none Trump republican, I would be a little scared at the fact that he actually showed a gain in his polling average even as he has lost media coverage.
 
Old 11-19-2015, 01:21 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
12,287 posts, read 9,816,866 times
Reputation: 6509
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
Both Fiornia and Carson had legitimate bumps in polling, the problem is that neither could sustain it.

If I was a none Trump republican, I would be a little scared at the fact that he actually showed a gain in his polling average even as he has lost media coverage.
That is because of the attacks in Paris. Peope know the dem solution isn't going to work so they are going towards the loudest and easiest to understand solution on the republican side.

Trump has been pounding on securing the border for over 6 months and he has gotten coverage in everyday America where the rest of the candidates are stuck in "people who pay attention to politics" America.
 
Old 11-19-2015, 01:33 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
37,794 posts, read 40,990,020 times
Reputation: 62169
If you look at the post for the Bloomberg National poll and the link for the actual poll, it shows everything you expect for the Carson qualities vs the Trump qualities if you've been on top of this race. Really big numerical differences between the qualities voters prize in the 2 candidates. But then you look at Rubio vs Cruz and it's like 2 peas in a pod, their numbers are so close on the same qualities.

I think it tells me that Rubio and Cruz should be trying to take each other out but the Trump vs Carson numbers tell me they'd be wasting their time to try to take each other out because their voters have different ideas in the qualities they prize in a candidate. In other words, if Trump dropped out of the race, Carson would not get Trump's voters and if Carson dropped out of the race, Trump would not get Carson's voters.
 
Old 11-19-2015, 01:37 PM
 
79,913 posts, read 44,167,332 times
Reputation: 17209
The vast majority unfortunately vote for their parties nominee no matter who it is.
 
Old 11-19-2015, 02:15 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
16,569 posts, read 15,258,911 times
Reputation: 14590
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Carson is in free fall just about everywhere. That is to be expected as it is a mystery to me how that guy ever caught on in the first place. Looks like Rubio could be the ultimate winner for Rs at this point, but Bush is still hanging in there and that is all he needs to do for right now.
So when will Trump drop out again?
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