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Old 11-18-2015, 07:01 AM
 
44,344 posts, read 17,716,609 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
I think you will be waiting a long time. For your edification, I have linked this article from 538:
That is an opinion article from a pollster website. Not fact.

They also said that Trump wouldn't last.
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Old 11-18-2015, 07:07 AM
 
Location: Long Island, NY
19,715 posts, read 11,523,903 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
That is an opinion article from a pollster website. Not fact.
So? What I was responding to was opinion too -- and I would fathom that the opinion of Nate Silver is heavier weighted than bellhead's. Namely, the opinion:

Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
Can't wait until the republican convention when Trump wins almost every state and Jeb is nominated.
[/quote]
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Old 11-18-2015, 07:09 AM
 
44,344 posts, read 17,716,609 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
So? What I was responding to was opinion too -- and I would fathom that the opinion of Nate Silver is heavier weighted than bentlebee's. Namely, the opinion of post# 4:
Nate Silver? He said Trump wouldn't last.
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Old 11-18-2015, 07:10 AM
 
Location: Long Island, NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Nate Silver? He said Trump wouldn't last.
The race aint over. Oh wait, it hasn't even begun. How many delegates does Trump have right now?
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Old 11-18-2015, 07:20 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
14,557 posts, read 9,622,856 times
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Trump richly deserves the bump. It is safe now to say stop Syrian refugees but when he said it everybody gasped, including me. As much as we may think of ourselves as renegades, we too are conditioned by the media and know what can and cannot be said.
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Old 11-18-2015, 07:24 AM
 
44,344 posts, read 17,716,609 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
The race aint over. Oh wait, it hasn't even begun. How many delegates does Trump have right now?
None. GOP doesn't award hundreds of super delegates like the DNC has done for King Hillary even though no votes have been cast. GOP is holding a real primary.

Furthermore, Silver said Trump would blow up before race. Yet he is #1 in polls just 76 days before Iowa Caucus. Believe what you want, but Silver's opinion is no better than that of anyone else.
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Old 11-18-2015, 07:46 AM
 
11,758 posts, read 5,523,953 times
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Interesting read re GOP delegates: The GOP

Mick
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Old 11-18-2015, 09:25 AM
 
4,414 posts, read 3,347,177 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Nate Silver? He said Trump wouldn't last.
Trump hasn't lasted through a single primary yet. He may continue to surprise and get wins in NH and Iowa, which are good for fundraising, but the rubber doesn't really hit the road until SC. Right now his numbers are falling there, Carson's have dropped and leveled off and Rubio and Cruz are rising.

But who knows, the usual plan of letting the fringe candidates take center stage early on to get the base excited and then have a settled "moderate" candidate after SC might not work this time.
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Old 11-18-2015, 10:15 AM
 
Location: Midwest
599 posts, read 821,964 times
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The pundits have made a lot of money declaring the end of Trump since June. I would be very cautious and careful of believing everything they've said (and continue to say) regarding their predictions of his demise. This election campaign is not playing by traditional, conventional political rules and procedures.
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Old 11-18-2015, 10:19 AM
 
77,957 posts, read 33,252,383 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
None. GOP doesn't award hundreds of super delegates like the DNC has done for King Hillary even though no votes have been cast. GOP is holding a real primary.

Furthermore, Silver said Trump would blow up before race. Yet he is #1 in polls just 76 days before Iowa Caucus. Believe what you want, but Silver's opinion is no better than that of anyone else.
Silver is a whiz with numbers. No doubt one of the best. The problem is there is no way to input human nature or a disgruntled electorate into a equation.
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