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Over the past 10 presidential primaries, the Iowa winner hasn't gone on to get the GOP nomination four times, including the last two. And three of those were unopposed incumbents. So in real contests, they've been wrong four out of seven times.
There's no way the other candidates (besides maybe Carson and maybe, MAYBE Huckabee or Santorum) would back Cruz. The establishment views him as even more of a threat than Donald Trump.
Indeed. The GOP "establishment" only wants Cruz for one thing. That would be to knock out Trump's momentum so another candidate can move in. Once that happens, they will no doubt turn the screws to get Cruz to withdraw.
This is exactly the strategy used to get Romney nominated instead of Gingrich. Santorum was in there as a spoiler for the religious vote. Unfortunately, for the "establishment" this isn't going to work this time. There is no other leading candidate.
"No but the establishment becomes competitive against Trump, not saying they will beat him, but they wont be trailing 20+ points necessarily behind him anymore."
Sure, but timing is key. Realistically, the field needs to winnow and an establishment favorite needs to emerge (and win) no latter than Nevada. Because barring a dramatic reversal, Trump and/or Cruz is going to clean up on Super Tuesday — the 'SEC primary' will resemble Sherman's March to the Sea, Minnesota and Alaska will reflexively kick the establishment, and Massachusetts may accede to the insurgency as well (Trump is inexplicably strong there). Ironically, the gusher of money loosed by Citizens United makes it all the more difficult for party elites to effectively triage the field. So while Trump and/or Cruz may not face four establishment candidates on March 1st, they'll likely still be opposed by two or three.
Didn't Iowa go with Santorum the last time? Iowa doesn't matter. The important thing is that Trump is WAY ahead in a multitude of states - most of them way more predictive than Iowa.
I can't see why they even have Fiorina, Christie, Paul, and Bush and god forbid, Huckabee, on the debate. What a waste of time.
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