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Another tight race and Indiana has open primary, so Sanders might do well.
yes, I think after next week, he will have several wins. But they are not delegate heavy states and he won't win by big enough margins to change anything.
yes, I think after next week, he will have several wins. But they are not delegate heavy states and he won't win by big enough margins to change anything.
Well Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky and South Dakota all picked Hillary in the final days of her 2008 campaign when she was struggling so much that it was pretty hopeless.
Sad that these states may not pick her this time...
Well Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky and South Dakota all picked Hillary in the final days of her 2008 campaign when she was struggling so much that it was pretty hopeless.
Sad that these states may not pick her this time...
I know! I was thinking about that just yesterday. What a shame that they might not pick her. If she were to win those states in addition to New Mexico, all of the states she's won would be geographically connected to each other.
Clintons' updated upcoming state visits:
Hillary Clinton : Connecticut -> Delaware -> New York -> Michigan -> District of Columbia -> California
Bill Clinton : Pennsylvania -> Florida
Chelsea Clinton : Pennsylvania -> District of Columbia -> Indiana -> Kentucky -> District of Columbia -> North Carolina
Pennsylvania (NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist) : Clinton +15
I find that Marist tends to be nearly accurate when they poll states. +15 for her is great. I still believe Bernie's strong anti-Fracking position is going to hurt him in the more heavy fracking regions of the state where he would have otherwise done well in.
Clinton's RCP average in 2008 was +6.1. She won by +9.2 in the actual result. None of the polls however are the same polls they use now sadly.
Clinton's current RCP average is +16.5, however I'm going to throw out the +27 poll because I think it's just a really bad poll. That would put her new RCP average at +13.
Again, just like in New York and other closed primary states, she tends to overperform the polling average. Marist is above the RCP average and it tends to have great polling. I think going with +14 or +15 will be fine. I think she will win by around 57-43 with a margin of error of +-2%(59-41 or 55-45). Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar margin that we saw in New York(58-42).
Next week is setting up to be one of Clinton's strongest nights if polling is correct.
I find that Marist tends to be nearly accurate when they poll states. +15 for her is great. I still believe Bernie's strong anti-Fracking position is going to hurt him in the more heavy fracking regions of the state where he would have otherwise done well in.
Clinton's RCP average in 2008 was +6.1. She won by +9.2 in the actual result. None of the polls however are the same polls they use now sadly.
Clinton's current RCP average is +16.5, however I'm going to throw out the +27 poll because I think it's just a really bad poll. That would put her new RCP average at +13.
Again, just like in New York and other closed primary states, she tends to overperform the polling average. Marist is above the RCP average and it tends to have great polling. I think going with +14 or +15 will be fine. I think she will win by around 57-43 with a margin of error of +-2%(59-41 or 55-45). Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar margin that we saw in New York(58-42).
Next week is setting up to be one of Clinton's strongest nights if polling is correct.
If you look at neighboring states and 2008 results:
2008 Democratic Presidential Primaries
New York : Clinton +17
Ohio : Clinton +9
Pennsylvania : Clinton +9
2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
New York : Clinton +16
Ohio : Clinton +13
Pennsylvania : Clinton +?
Rhode Island (Brown University/Taubman Center) : Clinton +9
Hope Hillary do 5-0 on Tuesday and finally finish the BERN off!
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