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Old 01-02-2016, 07:28 PM
 
9,891 posts, read 10,823,821 times
Reputation: 3108

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball7 View Post
States that hold their primaries between March 1 and March 14, 2016, will award their delegates on a proportional basis, meaning that no one candidate could likely win the nomination before late-voting states get to hold their primaries. States voting on March 15, 2016, or later will award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis, meaning candidates will likely pay more attention to them.

Proportional Delegate States (GOP only):

Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota,
Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Kansas, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Hawaii, Idaho, Mississippi, Michigan, Maine, Puerto Rico,
Washington D.C., North Dakota.

Needed to nominate: 1,237

Here's my point. Feel free to help by providing more information
if it is sourced. All those proportioned delegates become a commodity.
- If the GOP wants to bump Trump, the only mistake they made was
moving Florida to be winner-take-all this year. That was done before
the Trump phenomenon. It was done for Bush and Rubio. Now, it could
backfire on them if Trump wins. But Still...
- The delegates carried by lesser candidates could be absolutely key
to determine the winner. By keeping a large field in the race, as opposed
to gleaning the field down to a small number, GOP confuses the electorate
and keeps Trump under the needed number.
- Accumulated and individual delegate counts of lesser candidates could
become essential. They could actually decide the winner. We could see
a scenario where Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio or even a Rand Paul
or Chris Christie provides that necessary bump by distributing their delegates
(if they stay in the race).. but if they leave, delegates are freed to choose
on the day of the convention.

Those who expect the race to quickly begin whittling down to 2-4 candidates
will be disappointed ! Why ? Because it behooves the anti-Trump conspiracy
to stop that from happening.
I disagree.. I believe it will be down to probably 4 after super Tuesday... after Iowa and new Hampshire, if Cruz does as well as expected the establishment will probably start to begrudgingly start to coalesce behind him as the best option to beat Trump. Rubio and either Christie or Kasich may still be channeling John McCain's campaign and bitter ending it. I could see Rand Paul out of shear ego hanging around but no real threat.
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Old 01-02-2016, 07:30 PM
 
1,676 posts, read 945,629 times
Reputation: 800
Trump will win because nobody can challenge him. A number of articles have already come out and acknowledged that--after several YouTube videos of gays, women, Latinos and Blacks that support The Donald--polls of Trump's support may be underestimating his strength, since many are too embarrassed to admit they will vote for him. He's also getting many unregistered people to go out and register for him.

Cruz isn't going after Trump: they share the same enemy. The GOPe hates him even more than Trump, and will try and keep him from winning with their plan: sic Marco Rubio on him. The two will be too busy fighting each other to challenge Donald Trump.

Jeb! is arrogant enough to think he will, at the end of the day, be crowned because he has donors and is Washington royalty. But nobody likes this wimp.

Carson and Fiorina, the two other outsider candidates, long flamed out. Fiorina is unlikeable, has been a failure at what should've qualified her for the race, takes big donations, and sound establishment. Carson lied about his life and knows nothing about foreign policy, which is why so many people from his campaign ditched him. Plus, his voters will flock to Cruz, who has more energy, and of course, Trump.

Chris Christie is surrounded by scandal, hugged Obama, hated in his state, has a poor record, is establishment, and is losing to another brash Northeasterner--Trump, who isn't as rotund and managed to steal his air.

Rubio, as I said, is too busy dealing with Cruz, but also fending off attacks from Jeb! and Rand Paul, who either want the establishment coronation for themselves (Jeb!) or hate Rubio's hawkishness (Paul). Plus, he was a Gang of 8 member, a Jeb! mentee, and doesn't do his job. He is well-rehearsed, but not authentic and too inexperienced to win. Not to mention that he and Christie have started their own feud as of late.

Rand Paul has absolutely no chance. Neither do the undercard people. Just not enough support or money to get them there. But they can, of course, do some damage to useless folks like Jeb! and Paul to drag them down.

John Kasich is Hillary with a red tie. Republicans will not vote for this establishment candidate.
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Old 01-02-2016, 07:32 PM
 
Location: Jawjah
2,468 posts, read 1,919,213 times
Reputation: 1100
The GOP field is already small..small-minded that is
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Old 01-02-2016, 07:39 PM
 
1,676 posts, read 945,629 times
Reputation: 800
And the Democrats aren't? They claim to care so much about the illegals, and be humane to them, but ignore the fact that these illegals die in droves in the desert crossing here, and are taken advantage of by cruel employers in many cases, as well as human traffickers.
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