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Maybe he gets 43% of the Republican leaners that are registered as Democrats, but there aren't many of them(8% per the article) and these folks already have been voting for the Republican in prior elections. So he is not bringing any net gain from the D side.
Recent polls for the 2016 general election have Trump getting approx 8-9% of registered Democrats,with the remaining Democrats choosing Hillary. This(8-9% switching sides) is the typical result seen in prior presidential elections. Same polls also show 8-9% of registered Republicans choosing the Democrat candidate. It's been like this for many years.
"Another turnout challenge for Mr. Trump is that he commands the support of many people who are unlikely to vote. Civis found him winning 40 percent of the vote among those it gave less than a 20 percent chance of participating in the general election — let alone in the primary."
You should read the article. To the extent these people vote at all - and a great many of them apparently don't - they are swing voters who have of their own free will registered themselves as Democrats.
If they wanted to be Republicans, why in the world would they register as Democrats? Answer: They wouldn't.
Please read the quote below. Jason already pointed out the reason, so rather than plagiarize I just invite you to read his factual observation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JasonF
At least in Appalachia, the Democratic registration advantage is basically union legacy (the union and decent jobs are long since dead but the registration remains).
Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC
People in your own party may be black or Hispanic and only have a high school diploma. Do you sit on your high horse and disparage them, too? Where are all of those NY Times stories about uneducated bigots in the inner cities who always vote Democrat? Which Democrat has their vote?
Are you familiar with the 'Southern' strategy Nixon's campaign pioneered? If you aren't, the focus was to get overwhelming white support. One of the ways to do they did this was to exploit the racism and xenophobia of white southerners, many of whom were -and still are- resentful of Lyndon Johnson for ending segregation. The Southern strategy mostly worked for about 30 years or so when the country was overwhelmingly white, but now that whites are a diminishing demographic it doesn't.
Conversely, Democrats have been actively courting minority support -esp African Americans and Hispanics- for about the same time period. In practical terms, Democrats haven't done much for them, but unlike so many Republicans, most Democrats don't pretend racism isn't still a widespread problem.
Last edited by PanapolicRiddle; 12-31-2015 at 11:57 AM..
Please read the quote below. Jason already pointed out the reason, so rather than plagiarize I just invite you to read his factual observation.
Are you familiar with the 'Southern' strategy Nixon's campaign pioneered? If you aren't, the focus was to get overwhelming white support. One of the ways to do they did this was to exploit the racism and xenophobia of white southerners, many of whom were -and still are- resentful of Truman for ending segregation. The Southern strategy mostly worked for about 30 years or so when the country was overwhelmingly white, but now that whites are a diminishing demographic it doesn't.
Conversely, Democrats have been actively courting minority support -esp African Americans and Hispanics- for about the same time period. In practical terms, Democrats haven't done much for them, but unlike so many Republicans, most Democrats don't pretend racism isn't still a widespread problem.
Playing the race card, in typical, leftist race-baiting fashion.
And we all know racism is a problem, as you have so effectively illustrated by your post above.
Playing the race card, in typical, leftist race-baiting fashion.
And we all know racism is a problem, as you have so effectively illustrated by your post above.
Hmm... You keep calling me racist, but have failed to show how. How are my statements racist? I'm just reporting what polls and voting patterns have shown repeatedly: Southern whites vote overwhelmingly Republican while African Americans and Hispanics vote overwhelmingly Democratic. These are simple facts, not racism.
But in both 2008 and 2012 the chorus of Fox pundits made all kinds of statements that with Obama's victory, racism is effectively over. Since they largely represent the conservative perspective, apparently many -maybe even most- conservatives don't believe it's a problem.
Oh, I made a mistake: I meant Lyndon Johnson, not Truman. Sorry, brain fart.
Ronald Reagan was a Democrat before he became a Republican. He was a war monger and a racist. He supported South Africa's apartheid regime when the rest of the world was against it. It was embarrassing. He spent money like a drunken sailor. Reagan gave amnesty to 3 million illegal aliens. He was wrongly misinformed on a lot of issues. Yet, he remains the most beloved Republican president and he gave rise to something called Reagan Democrats.
Donald Trump sounds to me like a slightly different version of Reagan. Trump is from New York while Reagan was from the Midwest. So you have to make adjustments for Trump's harshness.
Trump might get something done in Washington. Then again, maybe what the RNC wants is a DO NOTHING Congress with a self serving obstructionist like Cruz. Oh yeah, like those voters are more educated than Trump voters.
So, Donald Trump's largest group of supporters comes from 'a certain kind' of registered Democrat, according to the New York Times. Sure, Trump has supporters across the board. But he is a political moderate at the end of the day. In fact, Trump was a registered Democrat himself as recently as 2004.
So to those who still are trying to imagine that the Donald Trump eruption is a 'conservative' phenomenon, here is your opportunity to get your story straight. He is a moderate who currently is posing as a Republican, but who doubts for a second that he would become a Democrat again if he regarded it as beneficial to himself to do so.
Good, because I don't really like every aspect of the Republican platform or the Democratic platform. Donald Trump is tapping into that elusive middle. Maybe he'll even be able to pull it off and win, though I think the Republicans are going to try to do something so he won't get his delegates and suffer the consequences as a result.
Until recently, Kim Davis was a registered Democrat. I fell confident in saying that it's very unlikely we would have been voting for the same candidates in national elections.
Please read the article. The 'certain kind of Democrat' they're referring to are those who self-identify as Republicans, but are registered as Democrats. That is, it's largely uneducated southern whites. While they might be registered as whites, they vote overwhelmingly Republican.
In other words, his primary constituency is uneducated, racist white people, which is no surprise.
Can we drop the term "uneducated"? Just because someone went to college doesn't make them automatically smarter than someone who went straight to work. I know people with college degrees who have zero common sense, while the supposed "uneducated" person who dropped out of school or only obtained a high school degree was a lot smarter. I also know people who went to college who are crazy smart and highly successful in their careers, but they don't necessarily have the same challenges in life as a person who has to scrape and scramble for jobs.
Last edited by katygirl68; 12-31-2015 at 12:23 PM..
Ronald Reagan was a Democrat before he became a Republican. .
And Hillary was a Republican before she laid in bed with Bill and became a Democrat.
Just goes to show you there is no difference between establishment Democrats & establishment Republicans.
This is why people are flocking to Trump who is neither.
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