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Old 01-20-2016, 08:31 AM
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Location: Western Massachusetts
46,011 posts, read 53,143,264 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LINative View Post
I don't believe it. Perhaps they are not real independents?
Why is that surprising? Whatever your view of Trump, his style and statements are polarizing in a way typical politicians aren't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LINative View Post
Um NO he is not.

1988 - Senior Bush
1992 - Ross Perot
1996 - Ross Perot
2000 - Ralph Nader
2004 - Junior Bush
2008 - Barrack Obama
2012 - Mitt Romney

2016 - Donald Trump - probably, Bernie Sanders possibly
I'm not sure what that means.

 
Old 01-20-2016, 08:37 AM
 
79,899 posts, read 43,855,613 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnywhereElse View Post
If you read Nate Silver's articles, you'll realize that he tweaks his predictions up until the last minute. In 2011, he was saying it looked like Obama was a one-termer. Now, if I can tweak my predictions up until midnight the day before the elections, I could probably predict the outcome too without a lot of chit-chat on the subject.

Not impressed. He should stick to baseball.
What it boiled down to was that Obama's chances at re-election were not strong unless the GOP picked a poor candidate. Silver noted that Romney would be a strong candidate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/ma...-election.html

As I said, we will soon see.
 
Old 01-20-2016, 08:53 AM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,441,094 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
OK Nate Silver's own analysis is projecting the following races

GOP Primary/Caucus (percent to win)
  • Iowa - Cruz 50%, Trump 30%, Rubio 13%
  • NH - Trump 41%, Rubio 17%, 14% Kaisch, 13% Cruz
  • SC - Trump 49%, 18% Cruz, 13% Rubio
  • Nevada - Trump 31%, Cruz 20%, Rubio 11%


Pretty much as expected. Cruz may win Iowa, Trump wins everything after that.


BTW, for all you Bernie Supporters out there, Nate Silver says he only has a 20% chance in Iowa.
What Nate Silver understands that you and most Donald Trump apparently don't is that Donald Trump needs 50%+1 delegates in order to win the Republican nomination. He does not get that level of support now.
  • He will not see any withdrawing Republican candidates endorse him nor will he receive any appreciable number of delegates from those candidates.
  • He will not receive any support from any of the "automatic" delegates to the Republican national convention.
  • And because of the Cruz's steady "New York City Values" theme of attack, potential voters are going to start learning a lot of very unflattering truths about "The Donald" that many of them do not currently know.
We do not have a "first past the post" system. You can win the primaries in all 50 states and if you are winning them with less than a majority of the votes - a support level that Trump does not appear to have - then you do not have the delegates needed to win the nomination.
 
Old 01-20-2016, 08:55 AM
 
79,899 posts, read 43,855,613 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713 View Post
What Nate Silver understands that you and most Donald Trump apparently don't is that Donald Trump needs 50%+1 delegates in order to win the Republican nomination. He does not get that level of support now.
  • He will not see any withdrawing Republican candidates endorse him nor will he receive any appreciable number of delegates from those candidates.
  • He will not receive any support from any of the "automatic" delegates to the Republican national convention.
  • And because of the Cruz's steady "New York City Values" theme of attack, potential voters are going to start learning a lot of very unflattering truths about "The Donald" that many of them do not currently know.
We do not have a "first past the post" system. You can win the primaries in all 50 states and if you are winning them with less than a majority of the votes - a support level that Trump does not appear to have - then you do not have the delegates needed to win the nomination.
He will get all of that unless the GOP decides losing is better. If they decide that, losing will become contagious to them.
 
Old 01-20-2016, 09:00 AM
 
Location: Hartford CT
1,883 posts, read 2,511,551 times
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I don't think anyone should doubt Trump not only getting the nomination, but actually winning the presidency. If he gets the Republican nomination, it wouldn't surprise me one bit, to see him easily get back to the center, and get people to vote for him. I don't get why experts have not accepted the fact that the so called rules don't apply to him and people on both sides are sick of the status quo. I believe having all these so called talking pundits on the news station is a waste of money and air time, because they clearly cannot predict the trend of how people will vote this election. For anyone to say Donald Trump has no chance to be President, clearly has not been paying attention to what's going on and the more and more people do say he has no chance, he just gains even more momentum.
 
Old 01-20-2016, 09:08 AM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,441,094 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp View Post
He will get all of that unless the GOP decides losing is better. If they decide that, losing will become contagious to them.
The Republican establishment believe that Donald Trump winning the nomination would be the end of the Republican party. It is an existential issue in their minds. So, suffice it to say, they do not see it the same way you do.
 
Old 01-20-2016, 09:15 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,772 posts, read 104,081,702 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woxyroxme View Post
As the GOP field thins out Trump will no longer be the front runner, conservative Carson supporters will go for Cruz, Jeb's establishment people will go for Rubio, etc. How many GOP front runners were there in 2012?
Regardless of who I am or am not supporting, I see it just about the way you do. I think Trump supporters are paying too much attention to the polls and the polls are just not as accurate as in the past. Any poll that shows any candidate with almost 50% of the vote and 30 points ahead of the next candidate isn't accurate. At least that is my opinion but who am I to always get things right?

Last edited by nmnita; 01-20-2016 at 09:25 AM..
 
Old 01-20-2016, 09:17 AM
 
79,899 posts, read 43,855,613 times
Reputation: 17179
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713 View Post
The Republican establishment believe that Donald Trump winning the nomination would be the end of the Republican party. It is an existential issue in their minds. So, suffice it to say, they do not see it the same way you do.
They might.....I think a sane head will prevail....you can't tell 48% of your voters to eff off and not expect it to hurt you next time.
 
Old 01-20-2016, 09:25 AM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,441,094 times
Reputation: 10096
Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp View Post
They might.....I think a sane head will prevail....you can't tell 48% of your voters to eff off and not expect it to hurt you next time.
Trump has 48%? Where did you get that number. According to the current RCP poll average (national), Trump currently has 34%.

34% is not enough to win a nomination that requires 50%+1 to win.

I know some people struggle with basic math, but seriously, this is getting ridiculous.
 
Old 01-20-2016, 09:51 AM
 
79,899 posts, read 43,855,613 times
Reputation: 17179
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713 View Post
Trump has 48%? Where did you get that number. According to the current RCP poll average (national), Trump currently has 34%.

34% is not enough to win a nomination that requires 50%+1 to win.

I know some people struggle with basic math, but seriously, this is getting ridiculous.
I just picked a number out of the blue. It could end up being 34% but my argument still stands.

I'm reading this morning that Trump has a +32 lead in Florida.

Donald Trump Rampages to +32 Point Lead in Florida - Breitbart

If he wins at whatever percent and the GOP tells those people, too bad, they have lost a good portion of them in the next elections.

Here is even more evidence to support my position.

Donors changing tune on Trump | TheHill
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