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It's very likely Arkansas would have went for Hillary in 2008 had she been the nominee. The Clinton Family is still well-liked there. Little Rock's airport is named "Bill and Hillary Clinton National." In 1996, Bill Clinton won almost every county in the state with the exception of the heavily conservative northwestern part of the state. Now I know its only 6 electoral votes, but in a close election it could matter and it would hurt the GOP to have to defend it.
Now it's true that through the Obama years, Arkansas has become more Republican than it once was, but nepotism is big there and having a Clinton on the ballot may put it in play. Then again, the Obama years may have soured the state against Democrats enough that they wouldn't vote for Hillary today despite having would have done so a decade ago. What are your thoughts?
No and its doubtful Arkansas would have been in play in 2008 even if Clinton had a similar national margin as Obama did. Wouldd she have done better than Obama? Yes. Would she do better than pretty much any other potential Dem candidate (including those who didn't run) Yes. However, the state has simply moved too much to the right for her to have a chance, and this really happened prior to 2008.
No and its doubtful Arkansas would have been in play in 2008 even if Clinton had a similar national margin as Obama did. Wouldd she have done better than Obama? Yes. Would she do better than pretty much any other potential Dem candidate (including those who didn't run) Yes. However, the state has simply moved too much to the right for her to have a chance, and this really happened prior to 2008.
True. The last time it was in play was in 2000 during Bush v Gore. In the Obama era, the last of the Southern Democrats have switched to being Republicans. With that being a fact, it would be difficult to swing the state blue. I do think if anybody could do it though it would be Hillary. As I've said, Arkansans are huge on nepotism and the Clinton family still has close ties with the state. There would be a significant number of people there who would vote for her just because she's a Clinton and for no other reason. Especially in Little Rock and the more liberal eastern part of the state.
True. The last time it was in play was in 2000 during Bush v Gore. In the Obama era, the last of the Southern Democrats have switched to being Republicans. With that being a fact, it would be difficult to swing the state blue. I do think if anybody could do it though it would be Hillary. As I've said, Arkansans are huge on nepotism and the Clinton family still has close ties with the state. There would be a significant number of people there who would vote for her just because she's a Clinton and for no other reason. Especially in Little Rock and the more liberal eastern part of the state.
I don't think it was in play in 2000. And Hillary was never that popular in the state. Now, if Governor Beebe were running for President, it's possible he could win Arkansas for Democrats. He was very popular as governor.
No. Arkansas is a very different state than it was when Bill was in the governor's mansion. And Bill and Hillary are different politicians today than they were (i.e. far more liberal on the issues, while Arkansas has become more conservative). Their support didn't help B. Lincoln keep her Senate seat, and Arkansans wouldn't vote for Hillary in 2016 should she get the nomination over Sanders.
No. Arkansas is a very different state than it was when Bill was in the governor's mansion. And Bill and Hillary are different politicians today than they were (i.e. far more liberal on the issues, while Arkansas has become more conservative). Their support didn't help B. Lincoln keep her Senate seat, and Arkansans wouldn't vote for Hillary in 2016 should she get the nomination over Sanders.
It really is interesting how Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri have turned more conservative over the past couple of decades while the rest of the country has become much more liberal. Even other classic red states like Georgia and Texas are becoming more liberal, at least on social issues. Why do you think that is the case in AR, OK, and MO? Millennials fleeing those states? Lower minority voter turnout?
It really is interesting how Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri have turned more conservative over the past couple of decades while the rest of the country has become much more liberal. Even other classic red states like Georgia and Texas are becoming more liberal, at least on social issues. Why do you think that is the case in AR, OK, and MO? Millennials fleeing those states? Lower minority voter turnout?
Probably more of a rural/urban thing more than anything else. Democrats have lost ground with white working class rural voters. In Arkansas and Oklahoma there really isn't much in the way of urban areas. In Missouri you have some with the St. Louis and KC Metro areas which have either remained Democratic or trended a bit that way (in the case of suburban St. Louis), but the rest of the state has trended Republican.
In Georgia the Atlanta metro is booming ans has become increasingly Democratic (outside of the further flung suburbs). Texas is somewhat similar, the urban areas have trended a bit more Democratic (especially Austin which continues o get more and more liberal).
With that being said in both cases, especially Texas it is a bit far off from being competitive. Georgia under the right circumstances has a potential to be, but both are still solid GOP states, just perhaps slightly less than what they were previously.
Probably more of a rural/urban thing more than anything else. Democrats have lost ground with white working class rural voters. In Arkansas and Oklahoma there really isn't much in the way of urban areas. In Missouri you have some with the St. Louis and KC Metro areas which have either remained Democratic or trended a bit that way (in the case of suburban St. Louis), but the rest of the state has trended Republican.
In Georgia the Atlanta metro is booming ans has become increasingly Democratic (outside of the further flung suburbs). Texas is somewhat similar, the urban areas have trended a bit more Democratic (especially Austin which continues o get more and more liberal).
With that being said in both cases, especially Texas it is a bit far off from being competitive. Georgia under the right circumstances has a potential to be, but both are still solid GOP states, just perhaps slightly less than what they were previously.
What's interesting about Arkansas (at least I find it interesting) is that Little Rock and Fayetteville in the Northwest area, the most urban areas of the state, are the most Republican areas. Fayetteville was the Republican stronghold; John Paul Hammerschmidt became the first Republican that Arkansas elected to Congress since Reconstruction, and he held that office for 26 years, and has been succeeded by Republicans ever since. While the state has been getting redder, it's interesting that the urban areas have led in that trend.
It's very likely Arkansas would have went for Hillary in 2008 had she been the nominee. The Clinton Family is still well-liked there. Little Rock's airport is named "Bill and Hillary Clinton National." In 1996, Bill Clinton won almost every county in the state with the exception of the heavily conservative northwestern part of the state. Now I know its only 6 electoral votes, but in a close election it could matter and it would hurt the GOP to have to defend it.
Now it's true that through the Obama years, Arkansas has become more Republican than it once was, but nepotism is big there and having a Clinton on the ballot may put it in play. Then again, the Obama years may have soured the state against Democrats enough that they wouldn't vote for Hillary today despite having would have done so a decade ago. What are your thoughts?
You mean the airport where Bill's brother Roger used to fly in cocaine?
So that takes us to asking that if Hillary is the nominee would states like New Hampshire be in play for the (R)'s? If the polls are any indication, and we will soon find out of they are legit, the people of New Hampshire are not big Hillary fans.
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